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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 3

Wilder than 3% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 15.3 expected

  • Biggest shockRice over East Carolina21% chance · won 62-38
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over Buffalo27% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upOhio over Temple33% chance · won 31-23

Upsets

Tue, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ohio@Temple
33%
67%
31
23
✗
TEM −6.3
–
–

Wed, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)@Akron
75%
25%
19
14
✓
M-OH −11.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
31%
69%
14
33
✓
TOL −7.2
–
–

Thu, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCLA@Washington
54%
46%
7
24
✗
UCLA −2.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Air Force@UNLV
88%
12%
35
20
✓
AF −19.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Fresno State@#2Boise State
4.4%
96%
0
51
✓
BOIS −27.0
–
–

Sat, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
#25Pittsburgh@USF
58%
42%
17
10
✓
PITT −3.6
–
–
Final
Penn StatevsIndiana
77%
23%
41
24
✓
PSU −12.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Louisville
64%
36%
17
10
✓
WVU −6.4
–
–
Final
Virginia@Boston College
31%
69%
13
17
✓
BC −7.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@Michigan State
9.1%
91%
31
35
✓
MSU −20.9
–
–
Final
#18Wisconsin@Michigan
60%
40%
48
28
✓
WIS −4.6
–
–
Final
NC State@North Carolina
48%
52%
29
25
✗
UNC −0.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
86%
14%
59
21
✓
NIU −17.4
–
–
Final
#8Oklahoma State@Kansas
92%
8.3%
48
14
✓
OKST −22.5
–
–
Final
Troy@#20South Carolina
13%
87%
24
69
✓
SC −17.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@RiceUpset
79%
21%
38
62
✗
ECU −13.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
19%
80%
20
30
✓
GT −13.2
–
–
Final
Clemson@Wake Forest
83%
17%
30
10
✓
CLEM −15.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@Tulsa
16%
84%
28
31
✓
TLSA −15.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Buffalo
27%
73%
21
17
✗
BUF −9.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
34%
66%
3
38
✓
WMU −6.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
42%
58%
0
44
✓
WYO −2.7
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Colorado
63%
37%
36
44
✗
KSU −5.9
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Idaho@Utah State
42%
58%
28
6
✗
USU −2.8
–
–
Final
Marshall@SMU
26%
74%
17
31
✓
SMU −9.7
–
–
Final
#6Stanford@California
68%
32%
48
14
✓
STAN −8.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@Northwestern
57%
43%
48
27
✓
ILL −3.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#14LSU
13%
87%
36
43
✓
LSU −17.5
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Texas
12%
88%
17
51
✓
TEX −18.7
–
–
Final
#5Ohio State@#17Iowa
63%
37%
20
17
✓
OSU −5.9
–
–
Final
#7Virginia Tech@#15Miami (FL)
50%
50%
31
17
✗
VT −0.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Navy
18%
82%
19
35
✓
NAVY −14.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana-Monroe
48%
52%
37
49
✓
ULM −0.3
–
–
Final
UCF@Tulane
86%
14%
61
14
✓
UCF −18.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@UAB
14%
86%
15
31
✓
UAB −17.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Nevada
1.0%
99%
6
52
✓
NEV −37.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Western Kentucky
54%
46%
27
26
✓
MTSU −2.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@BYU
4.6%
95%
7
40
✓
BYU −26.6
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Tennessee@Vanderbilt
67%
33%
24
10
✓
TENN −7.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Cincinnati
40%
60%
38
69
✓
CIN −3.4
–
–
Final
#23Florida State@Maryland
59%
41%
30
16
✓
FSU −4.1
–
–
Final
#22USC@Oregon StateUpset
56%
44%
7
36
✗
USC −2.8
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@Baylor
71%
29%
53
24
✓
OU −9.1
–
–
Final
#11Nebraska@#21Texas A&M
52%
48%
6
9
✗
NEB −1.1
–
–
Final
Houston@Southern Miss
46%
54%
41
59
✓
USM −0.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#19Utah@San Diego State
66%
34%
38
34
✓
UTAH −7.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
4.3%
96%
7
41
✓
HAW −27.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#16Missouri@Iowa State
76%
24%
14
0
✓
MIZ −12.0
–
–
Final
ArmyvsNotre Dame
26%
74%
3
27
✓
ND −9.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Syracuse
44%
56%
23
6
✗
SYR −2.1
–
–
Final
FIU@Louisiana
66%
34%
38
17
✓
FIU −7.2
–
–
Final
#12Arkansas@Mississippi State
60%
40%
38
31
✓
ARK −4.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Nov 18 · 7:30 PM ET Georgia State at #4 Alabama Alabama −40.6 99%
Sat, Nov 20 · 12:30 PM ET Appalachian State at #13 Florida Florida −18.6 88%
Sat, Nov 20 · 3:00 PM ET Weber State at Texas Tech Texas Tech −37.6 99%