The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 3

Wilder than 3% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 15.8 expected

  • Biggest shockVanderbilt over Ole Miss18% chance · won 28-14
  • Runner-upUCLA over Houston24% chance · won 31-13
  • Runner-upMemphis over Middle Tennessee32% chance · won 24-17

Upsets

Thu, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@NC State
44%
56%
19
30
✓
NCSU −1.7
–
–

Fri, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
#16California@NevadaUpset
51%
49%
31
52
✗
CAL −1.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
#24Arkansas@#21Georgia
38%
62%
31
24
✗
UGA −4.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@North Carolina
39%
61%
30
24
✗
UNC −3.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@#4Ohio State
5.0%
95%
7
43
✓
OSU −25.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Penn State
12%
88%
0
24
✓
PSU −18.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Temple
45%
55%
16
30
✓
TEM −1.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@West Virginia
25%
75%
17
31
✓
WVU −10.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@Army
33%
67%
0
24
✓
ARMY −6.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Illinois
26%
74%
22
28
✓
ILL −9.2
–
–
Final
Iowa StatevsKansas State
37%
63%
20
27
✓
KSU −4.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Purdue
23%
77%
13
24
✓
PUR −10.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole MissUpset
18%
82%
28
14
✗
MISS −13.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Virginia Tech
32%
68%
27
49
✓
VT −6.5
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Hawaii@Colorado
32%
68%
13
31
✓
COLO −6.7
–
–
Final
BYU@Florida State
47%
53%
10
34
✓
FSU −0.7
–
–
Final
USC@Minnesota
65%
35%
32
21
✓
USC −6.6
–
–
Final
#2Alabama@Duke
88%
12%
62
13
✓
ALA −18.4
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Miami (OH)
28%
72%
10
31
✓
M-OH −8.7
–
–
Final
#25Air Force@#6Oklahoma
25%
75%
24
27
✓
OU −10.0
–
–
Final
#12Nebraska@Washington
59%
41%
56
21
✓
NEB −4.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Wisconsin
23%
77%
19
20
✓
WIS −11.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@SMU
5.1%
95%
21
35
✓
SMU −25.0
–
–
Final
#3Florida@Tennessee
80%
20%
31
17
✓
FLA −13.5
–
–
Final
Troy@UAB
64%
36%
33
34
✗
TROY −5.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
80%
20%
52
14
✓
CMU −13.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@#8TCU
22%
78%
10
45
✓
TCU −11.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@Western Kentucky
72%
28%
38
21
✓
IU −9.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Oregon State
14%
86%
28
35
✓
ORST −16.5
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
#18Clemson@#20Auburn
41%
59%
24
27
✓
AUB −3.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Kentucky
4.7%
95%
10
47
✓
UK −25.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#10LSU
26%
74%
7
29
✓
LSU −9.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Missouri
21%
79%
24
27
✓
MIZ −11.8
–
–
Final
Marshall@Bowling Green
31%
69%
28
44
✓
BGSU −7.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#22Oklahoma State
27%
73%
28
65
✓
OKST −9.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Memphis
68%
32%
17
24
✗
MTSU −7.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Rice
58%
42%
30
13
✓
NU −3.5
–
–
Final
FIU@Texas A&M
10%
90%
20
27
✓
TA&M −19.3
–
–
Final
UCF@Buffalo
53%
47%
24
10
✓
UCF −1.8
–
–
Final
Navy@Louisiana Tech
64%
36%
37
23
✓
NAVY −5.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
36%
64%
37
24
✗
WMU −4.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
18%
82%
10
42
✓
UTEP −13.9
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
#23Iowa@#17Arizona
34%
66%
27
34
✓
ARIZ −5.7
–
–
Final
#13Houston@UCLAUpset
76%
24%
13
31
✗
HOU −11.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Idaho
50%
50%
7
30
✓
UNLV −0.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#7Stanford
17%
83%
24
68
✓
STAN −14.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Kansas@Southern Miss
52%
48%
16
31
✗
KU −1.3
–
–

Sun, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
Notre Dame@Michigan State
31%
69%
31
34
✓
MSU −7.0
–
–
Final
#19Utah@New Mexico
89%
11%
56
14
✓
UTAH −19.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah State
60%
40%
41
24
✓
FRES −4.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State
35%
65%
20
34
✓
ARST −5.3
–
–
Final
#5Texas@#9Texas Tech
48%
52%
24
14
✗
TTU −0.4
–
–
Final
#11Boise State@Wyoming
85%
15%
51
6
✓
BOIS −16.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Sep 19 · TBD Southern Utah at San Jose State San Jose State −19.6 90%
Sat, Sep 18 · 12:00 PM ET UMass at Michigan Michigan −9.1 73%
Sat, Sep 18 · 7:15 PM ET Maine at Syracuse Syracuse −31.5 98%
Sat, Sep 18 · 6:15 PM ET Portland State at #1 Oregon Oregon −62.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 18 · 7:00 PM ET Furman at #15 South Carolina South Carolina −40.8 >99%