The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 70

Wilder than 70% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 16.3 expected

  • Biggest shockSouth Carolina over Alabama21% chance · won 35-21
  • Runner-upSyracuse over USF22% chance · won 13-9
  • Runner-upFlorida State over Miami (FL)26% chance · won 45-17

Upsets

Wed, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Troy@Middle Tennessee
52%
48%
42
13
✓
TROY −0.8
–
–

Thu, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#10Nebraska@Kansas State
61%
39%
48
13
✓
NEB −4.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UAB@UCF
25%
75%
7
42
✓
UCF −11.5
–
–

Fri, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
UConn@Rutgers
48%
52%
24
27
✓
RUTG −0.8
–
–
Final
#15Oklahoma State@Louisiana
91%
9.4%
54
28
✓
OKST −21.8
–
–

Sat, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Syracuse@USFUpset
22%
78%
13
9
✗
USF −13.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@NC State
26%
74%
17
44
✓
NCSU −10.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@#3Ohio State
6.6%
93%
10
38
✓
OSU −25.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@Penn State
28%
72%
33
13
✗
PSU −9.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#11Virginia Tech
18%
82%
21
45
✓
VT −15.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Wisconsin
20%
80%
23
41
✓
WIS −14.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
35%
65%
45
16
✗
BALL −6.5
–
–
Final
Temple@Northern Illinois
48%
52%
17
31
✓
NIU −0.8
–
–
Final
BaylorvsTexas Tech
53%
47%
38
45
✗
BAY −1.1
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Georgia
36%
64%
14
41
✓
UGA −6.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Louisville
22%
78%
0
56
✓
LOU −12.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
43%
57%
25
49
✓
OHIO −3.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Air Force
6.6%
93%
27
49
✓
AF −25.1
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
UCLA@California
35%
65%
7
35
✓
CAL −6.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@Georgia Tech
29%
71%
21
33
✓
GT −9.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Notre Dame
46%
54%
17
23
✓
ND −1.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#20MichiganUpset
34%
66%
34
17
✗
MICH −7.2
–
–
Final
#25Clemson@North CarolinaUpset
45%
55%
16
21
✓
UNC −2.0
–
–
Final
#22ArkansasvsTexas A&M
60%
40%
24
17
✓
ARK −4.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@West Virginia
12%
88%
10
49
✓
WVU −19.8
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@FIU
28%
72%
21
28
✓
FIU −9.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Kent State
21%
79%
17
28
✓
KENT −13.5
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@South CarolinaUpset
79%
21%
21
35
✗
ALA −13.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#5TCU
3.0%
97%
0
45
✓
TCU −31.3
–
–
Final
Army@Tulane
60%
40%
41
23
✓
ARMY −3.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@Louisiana Tech
50%
50%
6
24
✓
LT −0.2
–
–
Final
#2Oregon@Washington State
98%
1.6%
43
23
✓
ORE −35.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@BYU
54%
46%
21
24
✗
SDSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Navy@Wake Forest
57%
43%
28
27
✓
NAVY −3.0
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
Oregon State@#16ArizonaUpset
28%
72%
29
27
✗
ARIZ −9.7
–
–
Final
#14Utah@Iowa State
67%
33%
68
27
✓
UTAH −7.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@#24Missouri
22%
78%
0
26
✓
MIZ −13.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Vanderbilt
12%
88%
6
52
✓
VAN −19.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@North Texas
53%
47%
24
19
✓
ARST −1.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
20%
80%
3
45
✓
CIN −14.3
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Louisiana-Monroe
60%
40%
17
20
✗
FAU −4.1
–
–
Final
#12LSU@#6Florida
30%
70%
33
29
✗
FLA −8.6
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
27%
73%
20
17
✗
NU −10.5
–
–
Final
#17Auburn@Kentucky
60%
40%
37
34
✓
AUB −4.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Southern Miss
40%
60%
44
43
✗
USM −4.2
–
–
Final
Rice@UTEP
24%
76%
24
44
✓
UTEP −11.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Arizona State@Washington
45%
55%
24
14
✗
WASH −2.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Fresno State
28%
72%
49
27
✗
FRES −9.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#19Nevada
2.0%
98%
13
35
✓
NEV −34.0
–
–

Sun, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
USC@#7Stanford
22%
78%
35
37
✓
STAN −12.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@#4Boise State
4.7%
95%
14
57
✓
BOIS −27.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
42%
58%
14
16
✓
NMSU −3.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#23HoustonUpset
32%
68%
47
24
✗
HOU −7.9
–
–
Final
#21Florida State@#8Miami (FL)
26%
74%
45
17
✗
MIA −10.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@SMU
45%
55%
18
21
✓
SMU −2.0
–
–