The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 78

Wilder than 78% of weeks in the archive.

20 upsets against 15.7 expected

  • Biggest shockMinnesota over Iowa14% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upUSF over Miami (FL)20% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upNevada over Boise State23% chance · won 34-31

Upsets

Wed, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
70%
30%
3
23
✗
TEM −8.8
–
–

Thu, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
57%
43%
24
17
✓
TA&M −3.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
49%
51%
40
13
✗
LOU −0.2
–
–
Final
71%
29%
6
28
✗
OHIO −9.3
–
–
Final
40%
60%
35
10
✗
PITT −3.7
–
–
Final
95%
5.1%
71
3
✓
NIU −26.6
–
–
Final
43%
57%
45
38
✗
ECU −2.2
–
–
Final
58%
42%
41
7
✓
WMU −3.9
–
–
Final
57%
42%
14
22
✗
BUF −3.5
–
–
Final
42%
58%
31
42
✓
TOL −2.8
–
–
Final
28%
72%
28
27
✗
ALA −9.0
–
–

Afternoon 3 games

Final
29%
71%
34
55
✓
ASU −8.2
–
–
Final
10%
90%
17
45
✓
NEB −19.8
–
–
Final
41%
59%
50
56
✓
TLSA −3.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
77%
23%
31
34
✗
BOIS −12.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
43%
57%
17
38
✓
CONN −2.4
–
–
Final
45%
55%
16
7
✗
SYR −1.5
–
–
Final
9.0%
91%
7
37
✓
OSU −21.0
–
–
Final
50%
50%
28
22
✓
MSU −0.7
–
–
Final
96%
4.3%
37
17
✓
UCF −27.9
–
–
Final
4.5%
96%
7
37
✓
VT −26.9
–
–
Final
26%
74%
23
38
✓
MRSH −9.7
–
–
Final
USF@#18Miami (FL)Upset
20%
80%
23
20
✗
MIA −13.2
–
–
Final
40%
60%
34
31
✗
PUR −3.8
–
–
Final
43%
57%
14
24
✓
TENN −2.3
–
–
Final
6.8%
93%
7
35
✓
MIZ −23.5
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
95%
5.2%
59
24
✓
HAW −26.5
–
–
Final
38%
62%
23
31
✓
ARK −4.5
–
–
Final
23%
77%
16
13
✗
CAL −11.1
–
–
Final
51%
49%
7
31
✗
FLA −0.9
–
–
Final
56%
44%
31
38
✗
NCSU −3.0
–
–
Final
#19Iowa@MinnesotaUpset
86%
14%
24
27
✗
IOWA −17.4
–
–
Final
73%
27%
24
19
✓
UNC −10.3
–
–
Final
55%
45%
23
28
✗
UAB −2.7
–
–
Final
19%
81%
16
17
✓
UTAH −13.5
–
–
Final
11%
89%
23
70
✓
WIS −19.3
–
–
Final
39%
61%
24
31
✓
FIU −4.0
–
–
Final
38%
62%
14
38
✓
MTSU −4.2
–
–
Final
34%
66%
23
22
✗
ULM −6.2
–
–
Final
17%
83%
14
28
✓
TROY −14.7
–
–
Final
>99%
0.3%
66
17
✓
TCU −44.7
–
–
Final
84%
16%
49
41
✓
KSU −16.5
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
16%
84%
0
38
✓
STAN −15.3
–
–
Final
41%
59%
34
13
✗
VAN −3.3
–
–
Final
26%
74%
34
42
✓
UGA −9.8
–
–
Final
10%
90%
14
48
✓
SDSU −19.7
–
–
Final
77%
23%
45
38
✓
LT −12.4
–
–
Final
39%
61%
20
16
✗
USC −4.0
–
–
Final
44%
56%
47
41
✗
OKST −2.0
–
–
Final
40%
60%
20
35
✓
TTU −3.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
24%
76%
20
23
✓
FRES −10.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
15%
85%
29
48
✓
ORE −16.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
59%
41%
31
23
✓
MSST −4.1
–
–
Final
51%
49%
29
7
✓
SC −1.0
–
–