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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 9

Wilder than 9% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.8 expected

  • Biggest shockUCLA over Texas13% chance · won 34-12
  • Runner-upNorth Texas over Florida Atlantic23% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upNC State over Georgia Tech30% chance · won 45-28

Upsets

Thu, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#14Miami (FL)@#25Pittsburgh
49%
51%
31
3
✗
PITT −0.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Buffalo@UConn
26%
74%
21
45
✓
CONN −10.9
–
–
Final
NC State@Georgia Tech
30%
70%
45
28
✗
GT −8.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Northwestern
54%
46%
25
30
✗
CMU −1.5
–
–
Final
#16Virginia Tech@Boston College
63%
37%
19
0
✓
VT −5.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Maryland
27%
73%
28
42
✓
MD −10.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Michigan
29%
71%
21
65
✓
MICH −9.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Iowa
8.1%
92%
0
45
✓
IOWA −23.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Purdue
36%
64%
31
20
✗
PUR −6.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Tennessee
29%
72%
29
32
✓
TENN −9.5
–
–
Final
UCF@Kansas State
34%
66%
13
17
✓
KSU −7.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Missouri
18%
82%
13
51
✓
MIZ −15.6
–
–
Final
#23Air Force@Wyoming
82%
18%
20
14
✓
AF −15.3
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Army@Duke
44%
56%
35
21
✗
DUKE −2.4
–
–
Final
#21USC@Washington State
91%
9.1%
50
16
✓
USC −22.1
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@#18Arkansas
70%
30%
24
20
✓
ALA −8.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Florida State
29%
71%
0
31
✓
FSU −9.2
–
–
Final
#3Stanford@Notre Dame
74%
26%
37
14
✓
STAN −10.3
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Rutgers
42%
58%
17
13
✗
RUTG −3.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#4Ohio State
1.1%
99%
20
73
✓
OSU −38.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Penn State
26%
74%
13
22
✓
PSU −11.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@#24Houston
4.9%
95%
23
42
✓
HOU −27.5
–
–
Final
UCLA@#6TexasUpset
13%
87%
34
12
✗
TEX −19.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Troy
22%
78%
28
35
✓
TROY −13.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@Colorado State
56%
44%
34
36
✗
Idaho −2.3
–
–
Final
#22Nevada@BYU
59%
41%
27
13
✓
NEV −3.8
–
–
Final
#11Oklahoma@Cincinnati
71%
29%
31
29
✓
OU −9.1
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
Kentucky@#2Florida
18%
82%
14
48
✓
FLA −15.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Indiana
11%
89%
20
35
✓
IU −20.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Marshall
41%
59%
23
24
✓
MRSH −3.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana
54%
46%
34
14
✓
MTSU −1.6
–
–
Final
Georgia@Mississippi State
47%
53%
12
24
✓
MSST −1.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Florida AtlanticUpset
23%
77%
21
17
✗
FAU −12.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Kansas
8.3%
92%
16
42
✓
KU −23.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana Tech
62%
38%
13
12
✓
USM −5.1
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@USF
5.7%
94%
12
24
✓
USF −26.3
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Ole Miss
54%
46%
38
55
✗
FRES −1.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#19Auburn
37%
63%
27
35
✓
AUB −5.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Minnesota
33%
67%
34
23
✗
MINN −7.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#10LSU
24%
76%
14
20
✓
LSU −11.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@UTEP
24%
76%
13
16
✓
UTEP −11.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
California@#15Arizona
31%
69%
9
10
✓
ARIZ −8.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UNLV
29%
71%
10
45
✓
UNLV −9.3
–
–
Final
#5Oregon@Arizona State
78%
22%
42
31
✓
ORE −12.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#7TCU@SMU
76%
24%
41
24
✓
TCU −11.3
–
–

Sun, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Utah State@San Diego State
30%
70%
7
41
✓
SDSU −8.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#9Boise State
18%
82%
24
37
✓
BOIS −15.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Rice
71%
29%
30
13
✓
BAY −9.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#13Utah
2.9%
97%
3
56
✓
UTAH −31.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 25 · 11:30 PM ET Charleston Southern vs Hawaii Hawaii −22.3 91%
Sat, Sep 25 · 7:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −25.1 93%
Sat, Sep 25 · 12:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at Michigan State Michigan State −42.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 25 · 7:00 PM ET South Dakota State at #8 Nebraska Nebraska −45.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 25 · 3:30 PM ET Colgate at Syracuse Syracuse −21.0 90%
Sat, Sep 25 · 7:00 PM ET Central Arkansas at Tulsa Tulsa −27.4 95%
Sat, Sep 25 · 1:30 PM ET VMI at Virginia Virginia −29.7 96%
Sat, Sep 25 · 12:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Wisconsin Wisconsin −35.6 98%
Sat, Sep 25 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −28.3 96%