Week 11 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 94

Wilder than 94% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 15.0 expected

Biggest shockWashington State over Oregon State3.9% chance · won 31-14
Runner-upMinnesota over Illinois11% chance · won 38-34
Runner-upWestern Kentucky over Arkansas State15% chance · won 36-35

Upsets

Pittsburgh 28, UConn 30#21 Pittsburgh lost to unranked UConn
Iowa 17, Northwestern 21Northwestern won; the model gave them 21% before kickoff
Minnesota 38, Illinois 34Minnesota won; the model gave them 11% before kickoff
Southern Miss 31, UCF 21Southern Miss won; the model gave them 24% before kickoff
Utah 3, Notre Dame 28#12 Utah lost to unranked Notre Dame
Western Kentucky 36, Arkansas State 35Western Kentucky won; the model gave them 15% before kickoff
FIU 52, Troy 35FIU won; the model gave them 23% before kickoff
Washington State 31, Oregon State 14Washington State won; the model gave them 4% before kickoff
South Carolina 36, Florida 14South Carolina won; the model gave them 24% before kickoff

Wed, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Miami (OH)@

Bowling Green

38%
62%

24
21

✗

BGSU −4.4

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Toledo@

Northern Illinois

25%
75%

30
65

✓

NIU −10.3

–

Thu, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

#21Pittsburgh@

UConnUpset

69%
31%

28
30

✗

PITT −8.2

–

Final

East Carolina@

UAB

57%
43%

54
42

✓

ECU −3.2

–

Fri, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Ball State@

Buffalo

38%
62%

20
3

✗

BUF −4.2

–

Prime time 1 game

Final

#3Boise State@Idaho

97%
2.6%

52
14

✓

BOIS −31.5

–

Sat, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final

#18Miami (FL)@

Georgia Tech

61%
39%

35
10

✓

MIA −4.9

–

Final

#14Iowa@

NorthwesternUpset

79%
21%

17
21

✗

IOWA −13.6

–

Final

USF@

Louisville

47%
53%

24
21

✗

LOU −0.6

–

Final

Boston College@

Duke

57%
43%

21
16

✓

BC −3.3

–

Final

Indiana@

#25Wisconsin

12%
88%

20
83

✓

WIS −18.3

–

Final

Cincinnati@

West Virginia

27%
73%

10
37

✓

WVU −9.1

–

Final

Minnesota@

IllinoisUpset

11%
89%

38
34

✗

ILL −19.1

–

Final

Southern Miss@

UCFUpset

24%
76%

31
21

✗

UCF −10.8

–

Final

Michigan@

Purdue

73%
27%

27
16

✓

MICH −10.3

–

Final

Ole Miss@

Tennessee

49%
51%

14
52

✓

MISS −0.1

–

Final

Vanderbilt@

Kentucky

18%
82%

20
38

✓

UK −13.9

–

Final

Kansas State@

#17Missouri

29%
71%

28
38

✓

MIZ −8.2

–

Final

Iowa State@

Colorado

51%
49%

14
34

✗

ISU −0.8

–

Final

BYU@

Colorado State

66%
34%

49
10

✓

BYU −6.9

–

Final

Wake Forest@

NC State

12%
88%

3
38

✓

NCSU −18.0

–

Final

Army@

Kent State

54%
46%

45
28

✓

ARMY −2.2

–

Final

Eastern Michigan@

Western Michigan

11%
89%

30
45

✓

WMU −19.0

–

Final

#12Utah@

Notre DameUpset

67%
33%

3
28

✗

UTAH −7.5

–

Afternoon 16 games

Final

Memphis@

Marshall

15%
85%

13
28

✓

MRSH −15.9

–

Final

Western Kentucky@

Arkansas StateUpset

15%
85%

36
35

✗

ARST −16.4

–

Final

Georgia@

#11Auburn

28%
72%

31
49

✓

AUB −8.8

–

Final

#7Virginia Tech@

North Carolina

65%
35%

26
10

✓

VT −6.7

–

Final

Syracuse@

Rutgers

39%
61%

13
10

✗

RUTG −4.0

–

Final

Penn State@

#5Ohio State

12%
88%

14
38

✓

OSU −18.1

–

Final

Texas Tech@

#13Oklahoma

20%
80%

7
45

✓

OU −13.2

–

Final

Maryland@

Virginia

56%
44%

42
23

✓

MD −2.9

–

Final

North Texas@

Middle Tennessee

32%
68%

23
17

✗

MTSU −6.8

–

Final

Central Michigan@

Navy

16%
84%

37
38

✓

NAVY −15.4

–

Final

FIU@

TroyUpset

23%
77%

52
35

✗

TROY −11.5

–

Final

Rice@

Tulane

39%
61%

49
54

✓

TULN −4.1

–

Final

Washington State@

Oregon StateUpset

3.9%
96%

31
14

✗

ORST −28.0

–

Final

San Diego State@

#1TCU

4.0%
96%

35
40

✓

TCU −27.8

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@

New Mexico State

79%
21%

41
20

✓

LT −13.5

–

Final

New Mexico@

Air Force

1.8%
98%

23
48

✓

AF −33.2

–

Prime time 9 games

Final

South Carolina@

#8FloridaUpset

24%
76%

36
14

✗

FLA −10.8

–

Final

Mississippi State@

#4Alabama

15%
85%

10
30

✓

ALA −16.2

–

Final

#6Stanford@

Arizona State

76%
24%

17
13

✓

STAN −11.9

–

Final

#2Oregon@

California

80%
20%

15
13

✓

ORE −14.0

–

Final

#22USC@

#20Arizona

41%
59%

24
21

✗

ARIZ −3.3

–

Final

Utah State@

San Jose State

60%
40%

38
34

✓

USU −4.7

–

Final

Clemson@

#19Florida State

37%
63%

13
16

✓

FSU −4.7

–

Final

Tulsa@

Houston

38%
62%

28
25

✗

HOU −4.4

–

Final

#9Oklahoma State@

Texas

66%
34%

33
16

✓

OKST −7.0

–

Late night 2 games

Final

Wyoming@

UNLV

55%
45%

16
42

✗

WYO −2.6

–

Final

#23Nevada@

Fresno State

68%
32%

35
34

✓

NEV −7.9

–

Sun, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final

UTEP@

#15Arkansas

6.6%
93%

21
58

✓

ARK −23.7

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@

#16LSU

3.0%
97%

0
51

✓

LSU −29.9

–

Final

Kansas@

#10Nebraska

3.8%
96%

3
20

✓

NEB −28.1

–

Final

#24Texas A&M@

Baylor

52%
48%

42
30

✓

TA&M −1.2

–

Final

Louisiana@

Florida Atlantic

29%
71%

23
24

✓

FAU −8.5

–