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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2010

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 47

Wilder than 47% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.2 expected

  • Biggest shockRice over Houston17% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upMiami (OH) over Central Michigan19% chance · won 27-20
  • Runner-upMississippi State over Florida23% chance · won 10-7

Upsets

Thu, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
USF@West Virginia
29%
71%
6
20
✓
WVU −9.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
56%
44%
59
7
✓
KSU −2.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UCF@Marshall
73%
27%
35
14
✓
UCF −10.1
–
–

Sat, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
Boston College@#13Florida State
9.4%
91%
19
24
✓
FSU −22.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Indiana
33%
67%
34
36
✓
IU −7.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@Michigan State
30%
70%
6
26
✓
MSU −8.8
–
–
Final
NC State@East Carolina
59%
41%
27
33
✗
NCSU −3.8
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
60%
40%
45
14
✓
PITT −4.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@Clemson
24%
76%
7
31
✓
CLEM −11.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Memphis
82%
18%
41
19
✓
USM −15.4
–
–
Final
#19Missouri@Texas A&M
55%
45%
30
9
✓
MIZ −2.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Central MichiganUpset
19%
82%
27
20
✗
CMU −15.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
39%
61%
17
28
✓
PUR −4.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Georgia
26%
74%
0
43
✓
UGA −10.7
–
–
Final
#15Miami (FL)@Duke
87%
13%
28
13
✓
MIA −18.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Temple
28%
72%
27
28
✓
TEM −9.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
26%
74%
41
38
✗
BALL −10.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
52%
48%
10
43
✗
UNLV −0.6
–
–
Final
Army@Rutgers
34%
66%
20
23
✓
RUTG −7.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Ohio
9.6%
90%
10
38
✓
OHIO −21.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Notre Dame
15%
85%
20
44
✓
ND −17.2
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
#23Arkansas@#16Auburn
38%
62%
43
65
✓
AUB −5.2
–
–
Final
#18California@#25USC
45%
55%
14
48
✓
USC −2.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Georgia Tech
19%
81%
14
42
✓
GT −14.5
–
–
Final
#17Iowa@Michigan
55%
45%
38
28
✓
IOWA −1.9
–
–
Final
#22Texas@#6Nebraska
28%
72%
20
13
✗
NEB −9.9
–
–
Final
Houston@RiceUpset
83%
17%
31
34
✗
HOU −15.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#11Virginia Tech
9.9%
90%
21
52
✓
VT −21.4
–
–
Final
SMU@Navy
37%
63%
21
28
✓
NAVY −5.6
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Northern Illinois
24%
76%
14
45
✓
NIU −12.1
–
–
Final
#14Oklahoma State@Texas Tech
57%
43%
34
17
✓
OKST −2.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@UAB
55%
45%
6
21
✗
UTEP −1.9
–
–
Final
Idaho@Louisiana Tech
47%
53%
35
48
✓
LT −1.2
–
–
Final
BYU@#4TCU
6.2%
94%
3
31
✓
TCU −25.6
–
–
Final
#20South Carolina@KentuckyUpset
58%
42%
28
31
✗
SC −3.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Virginia
67%
33%
44
10
✓
UNC −7.3
–
–
Final
#9Utah@Wyoming
92%
8.2%
30
6
✓
UTAH −23.0
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Baylor@Colorado
62%
38%
31
25
✓
BAY −5.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#8FloridaUpset
23%
77%
10
7
✗
FLA −12.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Western Kentucky
46%
54%
35
30
✗
WKU −1.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#12Oklahoma
12%
88%
0
52
✓
OU −19.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Tulsa
13%
87%
24
52
✓
TLSA −18.5
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@WisconsinUpset
74%
26%
18
31
✗
OSU −10.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Toledo
29%
71%
21
34
✓
TOL −9.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Troy
10%
90%
24
31
✓
TROY −21.2
–
–
Final
FIU@North Texas
49%
51%
34
10
✗
UNT −0.6
–
–
Final
#21Arizona@Washington State
94%
6.4%
24
7
✓
ARIZ −25.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#2Alabama
12%
88%
10
23
✓
ALA −19.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Oregon State@Washington
61%
39%
34
35
✗
ORST −4.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Fresno State
7.8%
92%
10
33
✓
FRES −23.6
–
–
Final
#24Nevada@HawaiiUpset
68%
32%
21
27
✗
NEV −7.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@Louisville
56%
44%
35
27
✓
CIN −2.3
–
–

Sun, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Air Force@San Diego State
57%
43%
25
27
✗
AF −3.0
–
–
Final
#1Boise State@San Jose State
99%
1.3%
48
0
✓
BOIS −37.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 16 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at #10 LSU LSU −51.7 >99%