The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 22 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 23

Wilder than 23% of weeks in the archive.

3 upsets against 5.4 expected

  • Biggest shockSouthern Miss over Houston18% chance · won 49-28
  • Runner-upClemson over Virginia Tech32% chance · won 38-10
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over USF44% chance · won 30-27

Upsets

Thu, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
West Virginia@USF
44%
56%
30
27
✗
USF −2.0
–
–

Fri, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCLA@#3Oregon
2.8%
97%
31
49
✓
ORE −30.4
–
–

Sat, Dec 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 6 games

Final
Syracuse@Pittsburgh
21%
79%
20
33
✓
PITT −12.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#9HoustonUpset
18%
82%
49
28
✗
HOU −14.4
–
–
Final
UConn@Cincinnati
21%
79%
27
35
✓
CIN −12.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas State
18%
82%
23
30
✓
KSU −14.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
64%
36%
22
19
✓
WYO −6.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@#17TCU
1.0%
99%
9
56
✓
TCU −37.3
–
–

Afternoon 8 games

Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
73%
27%
24
21
✓
USU −10.1
–
–
Final
#21Texas@BaylorUpset
47%
53%
24
48
✓
BAY −0.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Florida Atlantic
69%
31%
26
0
✓
ULM −8.5
–
–
Final
#14Georgiavs#2LSU
21%
79%
10
42
✓
LSU −12.2
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@North Texas
29%
71%
7
59
✓
UNT −8.2
–
–
Final
Idaho@Nevada
6.8%
93%
3
56
✓
NEV −23.4
–
–
Final
Troy@Arkansas State
12%
88%
14
45
✓
ARST −18.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#5Boise State
0.1%
>99%
0
45
✓
BOIS −52.5
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
BYU@Hawaii
53%
47%
41
20
✓
BYU −1.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Diego State
19%
81%
28
35
✓
SDSU −13.5
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma@#6Oklahoma State
39%
61%
10
44
✓
OKST −4.0
–
–
Final
#13Virginia TechvsClemsonUpset
68%
32%
10
38
✗
VT −7.9
–
–
Final
#8Wisconsinvs#20Michigan State
74%
26%
42
39
✓
WIS −10.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
OhiovsNorthern Illinois
41%
59%
20
23
✓
NIU −3.1
–
–