The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 67

Wilder than 67% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 14.0 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Texas Tech8.8% chance · won 41-7
  • Runner-upVirginia over Miami (FL)9.7% chance · won 28-21
  • Runner-upWyoming over San Diego State14% chance · won 30-27

Upsets

Wed, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Troy@FIU
25%
75%
20
23
✓
FIU −10.3
–
–

Thu, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UConn@Pittsburgh
32%
68%
20
35
✓
PITT −6.9
–
–

Fri, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Rice@#19Houston
4.7%
95%
34
73
✓
HOU −26.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@#16Miami (FL)Upset
9.7%
90%
28
21
✗
MIA −20.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
NC State@#21Florida State
20%
80%
0
34
✓
FSU −13.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Indiana
57%
43%
59
38
✓
NU −3.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Louisville
47%
53%
10
27
✓
LOU −0.6
–
–
Final
Purdue@#15Michigan
12%
88%
14
36
✓
MICH −18.8
–
–
Final
#23Michigan State@#25Nebraska
41%
59%
3
24
✓
NEB −3.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@#9Texas A&MUpset
22%
78%
38
31
✗
TA&M −11.7
–
–
Final
UAB@Marshall
28%
72%
14
59
✓
MRSH −9.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Akron
60%
40%
23
22
✓
CMU −4.7
–
–
Final
#11Arkansas@Vanderbilt
72%
28%
31
28
✓
ARK −9.5
–
–
Final
#10Virginia Tech@Duke
85%
15%
14
10
✓
VT −17.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
55%
45%
15
27
✗
BGSU −2.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
89%
11%
42
0
✓
AF −20.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
21%
79%
35
45
✓
WMU −12.6
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Boston College@Maryland
33%
67%
28
17
✗
MD −6.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@#3Oregon
1.2%
99%
28
43
✓
ORE −35.7
–
–
Final
#17Georgiavs#24Florida
52%
48%
24
20
✓
UGA −1.4
–
–
Final
Navy@#20Notre Dame
19%
81%
14
56
✓
ND −13.8
–
–
Final
Iowa@MinnesotaUpset
78%
22%
21
22
✗
IOWA −12.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
13%
87%
13
34
✓
ECU −17.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@North Carolina
27%
73%
24
49
✓
UNC −9.5
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Rutgers
46%
54%
41
31
✗
RUTG −1.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Miami (OH)
31%
69%
13
41
✓
M-OH −7.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@#6Oklahoma State
10.0%
90%
24
59
✓
OKST −20.1
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulsa
38%
62%
7
38
✓
TLSA −4.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@Penn State
37%
63%
7
10
✓
PSU −4.9
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma@Kansas State
70%
30%
58
17
✓
OU −9.1
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Louisiana-Monroe
35%
65%
31
28
✗
ULM −5.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@UCF
4.9%
95%
0
41
✓
UCF −26.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Louisiana Tech
22%
78%
28
38
✓
LT −11.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Idaho
80%
20%
16
14
✓
HAW −14.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UNLV
53%
47%
35
38
✗
CSU −1.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@#18Arizona State
6.3%
94%
14
48
✓
ASU −24.1
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Ole Miss@Auburn
16%
84%
23
41
✓
AUB −15.3
–
–
Final
California@UCLA
58%
42%
14
31
✗
CAL −3.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Kentucky
67%
33%
28
16
✓
MSST −7.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Texas
6.7%
93%
0
43
✓
TEX −23.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Utah
33%
67%
8
27
✓
UTAH −6.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@Arkansas State
16%
84%
14
37
✓
ARST −15.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Texas TechUpset
8.8%
91%
41
7
✗
TTU −21.3
–
–
Final
#13South Carolina@Tennessee
61%
39%
14
3
✓
SC −5.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Middle Tennessee
40%
60%
45
20
✗
MTSU −3.3
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Wyoming@San Diego StateUpset
14%
86%
30
27
✗
SDSU −17.0
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington
40%
60%
31
42
✓
WASH −3.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
BYUvs#14TCU
20%
80%
28
38
✓
TCU −12.8
–
–

Sun, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#2Stanford@USC
77%
23%
56
48
✓
STAN −12.2
–
–
Final
#12Clemson@Georgia TechUpset
56%
44%
17
31
✗
CLEM −3.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@New Mexico State
82%
18%
48
34
✓
NEV −14.9
–
–
Final
#8Wisconsin@#22Ohio State
63%
37%
29
33
✗
WIS −5.7
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@UTEP
70%
30%
31
13
✓
USM −8.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 29 · 3:30 PM ET Fordham at Army Army −23.7 93%