Week 5 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Fri, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final

#15USF@PittsburghUpset

62%
38%

17
44

✗

USF −5.1

–

–

Final

Houston@UTEP

77%
23%

49
42

✓

HOU −12.1

–

–

Sat, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final

#11Texas A&Mvs#14Arkansas

53%
47%

38
42

✗

TA&M −1.3

–

–

Final

Mississippi State@#21Georgia

34%
66%

10
24

✓

UGA −7.1

–

–

Final

Penn State@Indiana

72%
28%

16
10

✓

PSU −9.5

–

–

Final

Minnesota@#18Michigan

11%
89%

0
58

✓

MICH −20.5

–

–

Final

Rutgers@Syracuse

63%
37%

19
16

✓

RUTG −5.2

–

–

Final

Toledo@TempleUpset

23%
77%

36
13

✗

TEM −12.4

–

–

Final

Tulane@Army

34%
66%

6
45

✓

ARMY −6.9

–

–

Final

Northwestern@Illinois

17%
83%

35
38

✓

ILL −15.6

–

–

Final

#24Texas Tech@Kansas

79%
21%

45
34

✓

TTU −13.1

–

–

Final

Air Force@Navy

31%
69%

35
34

✗

NAVY −8.4

–

–

Final

Kentucky@#8LSU

5.8%
94%

7
35

✓

LSU −26.1

–

–

Final

Wake Forest@Boston College

40%
60%

27
19

✗

BC −4.1

–

–

Final

Buffalo@Tennessee

8.8%
91%

10
41

✓

TENN −22.5

–

–

Final

Cincinnati@Miami (OH)

71%
29%

27
0

✓

CIN −9.0

–

–

Final

Akron@Eastern Michigan

27%
73%

23
31

✓

EMU −10.2

–

–

Final

Kent State@Ohio

14%
86%

10
17

✓

OHIO −18.3

–

–

Final

Nevada@#3Boise State

8.4%
92%

10
30

✓

BOIS −22.9

–

–

Afternoon 15 games

Final

Arizona@USC

27%
73%

41
48

✓

USC −10.1

–

–

Final

Washington State@Colorado

40%
60%

31
27

✗

COLO −4.1

–

–

Final

Western Michigan@UConn

37%
63%

38
31

✗

CONN −5.6

–

–

Final

Marshall@Louisville

29%
71%

17
13

✗

LOU −9.2

–

–

Final

#22Georgia Tech@NC State

59%
41%

45
35

✓

GT −3.6

–

–

Final

Michigan State@#16Ohio StateUpset

30%
70%

10
7

✗

OSU −8.8

–

–

Final

Idaho@Virginia

13%
87%

20
21

✓

UVA −18.9

–

–

Final

Bowling Green@West Virginia

22%
78%

10
55

✓

WVU −12.9

–

–

Final

Northern Illinois@Central Michigan

69%
31%

41
48

✗

NIU −8.3

–

–

Final

Baylor@Kansas State

46%
54%

35
36

✓

KSU −1.6

–

–

Final

Auburn@#13South CarolinaUpset

30%
70%

16
13

✗

SC −8.8

–

–

Final

SMU@#12TCUUpset

15%
85%

40
33

✗

TCU −17.4

–

–

Final

San Jose State@Colorado State

34%
66%

38
31

✗

CSU −6.9

–

–

Final

Arkansas State@Western Kentucky

83%
17%

26
22

✓

ARST −15.8

–

–

Final

Clemson@#10Virginia TechUpset

22%
78%

23
3

✗

VT −12.7

–

–

Prime time 11 games

Final

#23Texas@Iowa State

66%
34%

37
14

✓

TEX −6.8

–

–

Final

Ball State@#5Oklahoma

4.6%
95%

6
62

✓

OU −28.0

–

–

Final

North Texas@Tulsa

14%
86%

24
41

✓

TLSA −18.2

–

–

Final

Washington@UtahUpset

22%
78%

31
14

✗

UTAH −13.0

–

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@Louisiana

27%
73%

34
37

✓

UL −10.5

–

–

Final

Duke@FIU

26%
74%

31
27

✗

FIU −10.8

–

–

Final

Hawaii@Louisiana Tech

49%
51%

44
26

✗

LT −0.4

–

–

Final

Memphis@Middle Tennessee

12%
88%

31
38

✓

MTSU −19.5

–

–

Final

UAB@Troy

19%
81%

23
24

✓

TROY −14.9

–

–

Final

Rice@Southern Miss

19%
81%

24
48

✓

USM −14.7

–

–

Final

Ole Miss@Fresno State

35%
65%

38
28

✗

FRES −6.4

–

–

Late night 2 games

Final

Oregon State@#25Arizona State

17%
83%

20
35

✓

ASU −15.7

–

–

Final

UCLA@#2Stanford

4.6%
95%

19
45

✓

STAN −28.0

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Utah State@BYU

30%
70%

24
27

✓

BYU −8.7

–

–

Sun, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final

#1Alabama@#9Florida

52%
48%

38
10

✓

ALA −0.5

–

–

Final

North Carolina@East Carolina

65%
35%

35
20

✓

UNC −6.4

–

–

Final

New Mexico State@New Mexico

51%
49%

42
28

✓

NMSU −0.4

–

–

Final

#17Nebraska@#6Wisconsin

24%
76%

17
48

✓

WIS −12.0

–

–

Final

#20Notre Dame@Purdue

73%
27%

38
10

✓

ND −10.1

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Oct 1 · 3:30 PM ET	Towson at Maryland	Maryland −37.4	99%
Sat, Oct 1 · 3:30 PM ET	Bethune-Cookman at #19 Miami (FL)	Miami (FL) −36.0	98%