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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 56

Wilder than 56% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 14.3 expected

  • Biggest shockBall State over Ohio18% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Troy23% chance · won 38-10
  • Runner-upSan Jose State over Hawaii27% chance · won 28-27

Upsets

Thu, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
USC@California
45%
55%
30
9
✗
CAL −2.4
–
–

Fri, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
73%
27%
27
28
✗
HAW −10.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
San Diego State@Air Force
44%
56%
41
27
✗
AF −2.8
–
–

Sat, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#10Michigan@Michigan StateUpset
56%
44%
14
28
✗
MICH −2.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
72%
28%
28
21
✓
TOL −9.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@Penn State
19%
81%
18
23
✓
PSU −14.4
–
–
Final
Utah@Pittsburgh
37%
63%
26
14
✗
PITT −5.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@#12Texas A&M
28%
72%
28
55
✓
TA&M −9.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@#7Wisconsin
1.8%
98%
7
59
✓
WIS −35.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@Cincinnati
15%
85%
16
25
✓
CIN −17.4
–
–
Final
#13South Carolina@Mississippi State
56%
44%
14
12
✓
SC −2.4
–
–
Final
#23Miami (FL)@North Carolina
45%
55%
30
24
✗
UNC −2.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Temple
8.2%
92%
0
34
✓
TEM −23.2
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Missouri
14%
86%
17
52
✓
MIZ −17.9
–
–
Final
Navy@Rutgers
31%
69%
20
21
✓
RUTG −8.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@Wyoming
29%
71%
14
41
✓
WYO −9.4
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
Florida State@Duke
71%
29%
41
16
✓
FSU −9.1
–
–
Final
Rice@Marshall
34%
66%
20
24
✓
MRSH −6.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
31%
69%
35
28
✗
CMU −8.3
–
–
Final
USF@UConn
64%
36%
10
16
✗
USF −5.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@OhioUpset
18%
82%
23
20
✗
OHIO −15.0
–
–
Final
#8Oklahoma State@Texas
68%
32%
38
26
✓
OKST −7.4
–
–
Final
#24Georgia Tech@VirginiaUpset
71%
29%
21
24
✗
GT −9.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@Washington
25%
75%
24
52
✓
WASH −11.2
–
–
Final
#21Ohio State@Illinois
44%
56%
17
7
✗
ILL −2.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
48%
52%
9
3
✗
KENT −0.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
49%
51%
22
51
✓
NIU −0.5
–
–
Final
UCF@SMU
46%
54%
17
38
✓
SMU −1.7
–
–
Final
#6LSU@Tennessee
74%
26%
38
7
✓
LSU −10.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Tulane
54%
46%
44
7
✓
UTEP −1.4
–
–
Final
BYU@Oregon State
43%
57%
38
28
✗
ORST −2.9
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Florida Atlantic
31%
69%
20
0
✗
FAU −8.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Nevada
3.5%
96%
7
49
✓
NEV −30.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana
30%
70%
10
30
✓
UL −9.1
–
–
Final
#2Boise State@Colorado State
98%
2.2%
63
13
✓
BOIS −33.2
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@Ole Miss
95%
5.4%
52
7
✓
ALA −26.5
–
–
Final
#15Virginia Tech@Wake Forest
67%
33%
38
17
✓
VT −7.1
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
#16Florida@AuburnUpset
51%
49%
6
17
✗
FLA −0.3
–
–
Final
#17Clemson@Maryland
68%
32%
56
45
✓
CLEM −7.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Memphis
76%
24%
35
17
✓
ECU −11.4
–
–
Final
#14Georgia@Vanderbilt
74%
26%
33
28
✓
UGA −10.6
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Iowa
26%
74%
31
41
✓
IOWA −10.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Texas Tech
34%
66%
41
34
✗
TTU −6.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@TroyUpset
23%
77%
38
10
✗
TROY −12.4
–
–
Final
#3Stanford@Washington State
92%
8.5%
44
14
✓
STAN −22.7
–
–
Final
#4Oklahoma@Kansas
96%
3.7%
47
17
✓
OU −29.5
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Utah State@Fresno State
56%
44%
21
31
✗
USU −2.6
–
–
Final
#19Arizona State@#5Oregon
18%
82%
27
41
✓
ORE −15.5
–
–

Sun, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Idaho@New Mexico State
33%
67%
24
31
✓
NMSU −7.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Tulsa
9.4%
91%
20
37
✓
TLSA −21.9
–
–