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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 12

Wilder than 12% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 14.0 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico State over Minnesota10% chance · won 28-21
  • Runner-upKansas over Northern Illinois28% chance · won 45-42
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Kent State32% chance · won 20-12

Upsets

Fri, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
FIU@Louisville
52%
48%
24
17
✓
FIU −1.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#20Missouri@Arizona StateUpset
50%
50%
30
37
✓
MIZ −0.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arizona@#10Oklahoma State
20%
80%
14
37
✓
OKST −12.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
Iowa@Iowa State
62%
38%
41
44
✗
IOWA −5.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kentucky
20%
80%
13
27
✓
UK −12.4
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Michigan State
13%
87%
0
44
✓
MSU −17.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@#6Ohio State
10%
90%
22
27
✓
OSU −19.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#12Wisconsin
16%
84%
0
35
✓
WIS −14.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Army
54%
46%
23
20
✓
SDSU −2.2
–
–
Final
#16Mississippi State@#18Auburn
39%
61%
34
41
✓
AUB −3.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#23North Carolina
21%
79%
22
24
✓
UNC −11.9
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
California@Colorado
57%
43%
36
33
✓
CAL −3.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@MinnesotaUpset
10%
90%
28
21
✗
MINN −19.2
–
–
Final
#3Stanford@Duke
90%
9.7%
44
14
✓
STAN −20.6
–
–
Final
#5Virginia Tech@East Carolina
82%
18%
17
10
✓
VT −14.8
–
–
Final
#25NC State@Wake ForestUpset
65%
35%
27
34
✗
NCSU −6.6
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@Penn State
78%
22%
27
11
✓
ALA −12.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@Rice
51%
49%
22
24
✗
PUR −1.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Washington
67%
33%
32
40
✗
HAW −7.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Marshall
56%
44%
20
26
✗
USM −3.0
–
–
Final
#9TCU@Air Force
61%
39%
35
19
✓
TCU −4.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@#13Oregon
24%
76%
20
69
✓
ORE −10.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Tennessee
37%
63%
23
45
✓
TENN −4.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Tulane
65%
35%
31
3
✓
TLSA −6.3
–
–
Final
#17South Carolina@Georgia
52%
48%
45
42
✓
SC −1.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Washington State
27%
73%
7
59
✓
WSU −9.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Akron
73%
27%
41
3
✓
TEM −10.0
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
New Mexico@#8Arkansas
2.5%
98%
3
52
✓
ARK −30.2
–
–
Final
UAB@#11Florida
8.4%
92%
0
39
✓
FLA −21.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@USF
13%
87%
7
37
✓
USF −17.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@Indiana
49%
51%
34
31
✗
UVA −0.3
–
–
Final
Navy@Western Kentucky
70%
30%
40
14
✓
NAVY −8.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Nebraska
18%
82%
29
42
✓
NEB −13.7
–
–
Final
Houston@North Texas
68%
32%
48
23
✓
HOU −7.5
–
–
Final
BYU@Texas
31%
69%
16
17
✓
TEX −7.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Arkansas State
14%
86%
3
47
✓
ARST −16.1
–
–
Final
#24Northern Illinois@KansasUpset
72%
28%
42
45
✗
NIU −9.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Kent State
32%
68%
20
12
✗
KENT −6.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Middle Tennessee
51%
49%
49
21
✓
GT −0.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@SMU
28%
72%
17
28
✓
SMU −8.4
–
–
Final
Utah@USC
32%
68%
14
23
✓
USC −6.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Vanderbilt
56%
44%
21
24
✗
CONN −2.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
San Jose State@UCLA
8.5%
92%
17
27
✓
UCLA −20.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Notre Dame@Michigan
38%
62%
31
35
✓
MICH −4.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@UCF
24%
76%
3
30
✓
UCF −10.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 10 · 2:00 PM ET Northern Colorado vs Colorado State Colorado State −25.9 95%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at #15 Florida State Florida State −53.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 5:00 PM ET North Dakota at Idaho Idaho −13.1 81%
Sat, Sep 10 · 3:30 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Northwestern Northwestern −37.3 99%
Sun, Sep 11 · TBD Northwestern State at #7 LSU LSU −53.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Ole Miss Ole Miss −32.4 98%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:30 PM ET Rhode Island at Syracuse Syracuse −41.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Morgan State at Bowling Green Bowling Green −34.1 99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Ohio Ohio −33.9 99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 1:00 PM ET Maine at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −43.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 3:30 PM ET Wofford at #22 Clemson Clemson −42.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 1:00 PM ET Norfolk State at #21 West Virginia West Virginia −40.3 >99%
Sun, Sep 11 · TBD Weber State at Utah State Utah State −29.5 97%
Sat, Sep 10 · 12:00 PM ET South Dakota State at Illinois Illinois −35.1 99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Stony Brook at Buffalo Buffalo −21.2 92%
Sat, Sep 10 · 1:00 PM ET Alabama State at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −16.0 86%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Central Arkansas at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −28.6 97%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Grambling at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −25.0 95%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Western Michigan Western Michigan −35.2 99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Texas State at Wyoming Wyoming −7.9 71%