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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 95

Wilder than 95% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 13.0 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Oklahoma State5.4% chance · won 37-31
  • Runner-upUAB over Southern Miss8.0% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upVirginia over Florida State11% chance · won 14-13

Upsets

Tue, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
13%
87%
38
41
✓
NIU −17.6
–
–

Wed, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
63%
37%
29
28
✓
OHIO −6.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Miami (OH)
51%
49%
24
21
✓
WMU −0.8
–
–

Thu, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Southern Miss@UABUpset
92%
8.0%
31
34
✗
USM −22.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@Memphis
78%
22%
23
22
✓
MRSH −12.6
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#14Virginia Tech
22%
78%
21
24
✓
VT −12.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#4Oklahoma State@Iowa StateUpset
95%
5.4%
31
37
✗
OKST −26.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
80%
20%
44
17
✓
TOL −14.1
–
–

Sat, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Louisville@UConn
40%
60%
34
20
✗
CONN −3.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
19%
81%
13
28
✓
NU −13.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@Michigan State
5.2%
95%
3
55
✓
MSU −25.7
–
–
Final
#22Nebraska@#16Michigan
33%
67%
17
45
✓
MICH −6.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Rutgers
46%
54%
3
20
✓
RUTG −0.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@#17Texas A&M
3.2%
97%
7
61
✓
TA&M −29.4
–
–
Final
#8Wisconsin@Illinois
78%
22%
28
17
✓
WIS −13.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Buffalo
21%
79%
10
51
✓
BUF −12.3
–
–
Final
Iowa@Purdue
58%
42%
31
21
✓
IOWA −3.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#11Georgia
6.1%
94%
10
19
✓
UGA −24.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Duke
73%
27%
38
31
✓
GT −10.0
–
–
Final
Army@Temple
17%
83%
14
42
✓
TEM −14.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
32%
68%
22
28
✓
KENT −7.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
7.0%
93%
10
31
✓
WYO −23.3
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Maryland@Wake Forest
26%
74%
10
31
✓
WAKE −9.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Middle Tennessee
77%
23%
45
19
✓
ARST −12.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UTEP
74%
26%
57
28
✓
TLSA −10.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#9Arkansas
19%
81%
17
44
✓
ARK −13.5
–
–
Final
#23Miami (FL)@USF
48%
52%
6
3
✗
USF −0.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#20Missouri
17%
83%
27
31
✓
MIZ −14.8
–
–
Final
#24Clemson@NC StateUpset
61%
39%
13
37
✗
CLEM −4.8
–
–
Final
Penn State@Ohio State
31%
69%
20
14
✗
OSU −7.6
–
–
Final
Washington@Oregon State
51%
49%
21
38
✗
WASH −1.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@Rice
18%
82%
7
19
✓
RICE −13.9
–
–
Final
SMU@#10Houston
11%
89%
7
37
✓
HOU −19.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#15TCU
2.2%
98%
10
34
✓
TCU −31.9
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Troy
19%
81%
7
34
✓
TROY −13.6
–
–
Final
Navy@San Jose State
70%
30%
24
27
✗
NAVY −8.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@#13Notre Dame
7.5%
92%
14
16
✓
ND −22.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Nevada
29%
71%
24
20
✗
NEV −8.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Idaho
72%
28%
49
42
✓
USU −9.6
–
–
Final
Utah@Washington State
66%
34%
30
27
✓
UTAH −6.8
–
–
Final
FIU@Louisiana-Monroe
54%
46%
28
17
✓
FIU −2.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Air Force
6.7%
93%
17
45
✓
AF −23.5
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Colorado@UCLA
26%
74%
6
45
✓
UCLA −10.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@#12Florida StateUpset
12%
88%
14
13
✗
FSU −18.8
–
–
Final
#7Boise State@San Diego State
86%
14%
52
35
✓
BOIS −17.8
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@BaylorUpset
85%
15%
38
45
✗
OU −17.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#21TexasUpset
32%
68%
17
13
✗
TEX −7.0
–
–
Final
#19USC@#2OregonUpset
13%
87%
38
35
✗
ORE −17.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@#25Arizona StateUpset
16%
84%
31
27
✗
ASU −15.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
California@#6Stanford
6.3%
94%
28
31
✓
STAN −24.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@BYU
10%
90%
7
42
✓
BYU −19.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@HawaiiUpset
24%
76%
24
21
✗
HAW −10.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#5LSU@Ole Miss
96%
3.8%
52
3
✓
LSU −28.7
–
–
Final
UCF@East Carolina
59%
41%
31
38
✗
UCF −4.3
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@North Texas
37%
63%
31
21
✗
UNT −4.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Tennessee
41%
59%
21
27
✓
TENN −3.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 19 · 1:00 PM ET Samford at Auburn Auburn −41.5 >99%
Sat, Nov 19 · 1:00 PM ET Furman at Florida Florida −40.1 99%
Sat, Nov 19 · 2:00 PM ET Georgia Southern at #1 Alabama Alabama −37.3 99%
Sat, Nov 19 · 12:00 PM ET The Citadel at #18 South Carolina South Carolina −48.6 >99%