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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 78 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 11

Wilder than 11% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockRichmond over Duke4.0% chance · won 23-21
  • Runner-upSacramento State over Oregon State16% chance · won 29-28
  • Runner-upBaylor over TCU33% chance · won 50-48

Upsets

Thu, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
North Texas@FIU
32%
68%
16
41
✓
FIU −6.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Idaho
57%
43%
32
15
✓
BGSU −3.1
–
–
Final
KentuckyvsWestern Kentucky
70%
30%
14
3
✓
UK −8.8
–
–

Fri, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Wake Forest@Syracuse
35%
65%
29
36
✓
SYR −5.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Memphis
78%
22%
59
14
✓
MSST −12.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@#13Wisconsin
12%
88%
17
51
✓
WIS −17.9
–
–

Sat, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 6 games

Final
Utah State@#7Auburn
11%
89%
38
42
✓
AUB −18.6
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Boston College
35%
65%
24
17
✗
BC −5.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#18Missouri
19%
81%
6
17
✓
MIZ −13.3
–
–
Final
Akron@#6Ohio State
5.3%
95%
0
42
✓
OSU −24.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Purdue
38%
62%
24
27
✓
PUR −4.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@#3Alabama
10.0%
90%
7
48
✓
ALA −19.4
–
–

Afternoon 11 games

Final
Minnesota@USC
24%
76%
17
19
✓
USC −10.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#17Florida State
11%
89%
0
34
✓
FSU −19.0
–
–
Final
USF@#25Notre DameUpset
38%
62%
23
20
✗
ND −4.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Michigan
36%
64%
10
34
✓
MICH −4.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Clemson
31%
69%
19
43
✓
CLEM −7.3
–
–
Final
UCLA@Houston
36%
64%
34
38
✓
HOU −5.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Illinois
26%
74%
15
33
✓
ILL −9.3
–
–
Final
BYU@Ole Miss
46%
54%
14
13
✗
MISS −1.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#4Stanford
3.7%
96%
3
57
✓
STAN −27.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
51%
49%
14
10
✓
CSU −0.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Pittsburgh
13%
87%
16
35
✓
PITT −17.1
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Fresno State@California
32%
68%
21
36
✓
CAL −6.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#15Florida
12%
88%
3
41
✓
FLA −17.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#9Oklahoma State
9.5%
90%
34
61
✓
OKST −19.9
–
–
Final
IndianavsBall State
59%
41%
20
27
✗
IU −4.1
–
–
Final
Army@Northern Illinois
27%
73%
26
49
✓
NIU −8.8
–
–
Final
East Carolinavs#19South Carolina
28%
72%
37
56
✓
SC −8.4
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@Southern Miss
31%
69%
17
19
✓
USM −7.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@Hawaii
29%
71%
17
34
✓
HAW −8.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#5TCU@BaylorUpset
67%
33%
48
50
✗
TCU −7.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Marshall@#23West Virginia
20%
80%
13
34
✓
WVU −12.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
SMU@#22Texas A&M
26%
74%
14
46
✓
TA&M −9.2
–
–

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#1Boise State@Georgia
60%
40%
35
21
✓
BOIS −4.5
–
–
Final
#2Oregonvs#14LSU
60%
40%
27
40
✗
ORE −4.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@New Mexico State
66%
34%
44
24
✓
OHIO −6.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#8Oklahoma
25%
75%
14
47
✓
OU −9.8
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas
21%
79%
9
34
✓
TEX −12.0
–
–

Tue, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#10Miami (FL)@MarylandUpset
56%
44%
24
32
✗
MIA −2.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 1 · 10:00 PM ET UC Davis at Arizona State Arizona State −34.0 99%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:30 PM ET Western Carolina at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −40.2 >99%
Thu, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET Murray State at Louisville Louisville −47.1 >99%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:30 PM ET North Carolina Central vs Rutgers Rutgers −18.6 89%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Villanova at Temple Temple −27.5 96%
Fri, Sep 2 · TBD Montana State at #24 Utah Utah −38.6 99%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET South Carolina State at Central Michigan Central Michigan −31.2 98%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Toledo Toledo −20.6 91%
Fri, Sep 2 · 7:30 PM ET Youngstown State at Michigan State Michigan State −37.2 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State at #12 Arkansas Arkansas −19.7 90%
Sat, Sep 3 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona −34.1 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 10:00 PM ET Cal Poly vs San Diego State San Diego State −29.9 97%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:00 PM ET Fordham at UConn UConn −25.1 95%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −28.3 97%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Richmond at Duke Duke −26.9 96%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET Liberty at NC State NC State −15.6 85%
Sat, Sep 3 · 3:30 PM ET James Madison at North Carolina North Carolina −6.5 68%
Sat, Sep 3 · 3:30 PM ET Chattanooga at #16 Nebraska Nebraska −40.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 4:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Oregon State Oregon State −14.8 84%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:00 PM ET Indiana State at Penn State Penn State −43.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:30 PM ET Elon at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −24.8 95%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET William & Mary at Virginia Virginia −23.5 94%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:30 PM ET Appalachian State at #11 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −13.3 81%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at Washington Washington −32.6 98%
Sat, Sep 3 · 5:00 PM ET Idaho State at Washington State Washington State −31.7 98%
Sat, Sep 3 · 2:00 PM ET South Dakota at Air Force Air Force −28.0 97%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at UCF UCF −39.0 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Cincinnati Cincinnati −29.2 97%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at #21 Iowa Iowa −40.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at Kansas Kansas −23.9 94%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Kansas State Kansas State −34.5 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 3:30 PM ET Delaware at Navy Navy −20.3 91%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET Montana at Tennessee Tennessee −25.7 95%
Sat, Sep 3 · 9:00 PM ET Stony Brook at UTEP UTEP −25.1 95%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Texas State at Texas Tech Texas Tech −13.8 82%
Sat, Sep 3 · 1:30 PM ET SE Louisiana vs Tulane Tulane −20.9 92%
Sat, Sep 3 · 9:00 PM ET Weber State at Wyoming Wyoming −26.2 96%
Sun, Sep 4 · 12:00 PM ET Howard at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −12.7 80%