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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 48

Wilder than 48% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.9 expected

  • Biggest shockSouthern Utah over UNLV14% chance · won 41-16
  • Runner-upLouisiana over FIU14% chance · won 36-31
  • Runner-upKansas State over Miami (FL)17% chance · won 28-24

Upsets

Fri, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
NC State@Cincinnati
48%
52%
14
44
✓
CIN −0.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
North Carolina@#23Georgia Tech
38%
62%
28
35
✓
GT −5.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Michigan State
14%
86%
7
45
✓
MSU −18.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Michigan
32%
68%
7
28
✓
MICH −7.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Syracuse
53%
47%
30
33
✗
TOL −1.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Penn State
11%
89%
6
34
✓
PSU −20.3
–
–
Final
#22Notre Dame@Pittsburgh
56%
44%
15
12
✓
ND −2.4
–
–
Final
SMU@Memphis
77%
23%
42
0
✓
SMU −12.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Iowa
12%
88%
17
45
✓
IOWA −20.0
–
–
Final
#25Georgia@Ole Miss
71%
29%
27
13
✓
UGA −9.2
–
–
Final
Temple@Maryland
30%
70%
38
7
✗
MD −8.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
38%
62%
37
23
✗
M-OH −5.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Rutgers
43%
57%
26
38
✓
RUTG −2.9
–
–
Final
Army@Ball State
52%
48%
21
48
✗
ARMY −0.7
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Tulane@Duke
40%
60%
27
48
✓
DUKE −4.2
–
–
Final
UAB@East Carolina
16%
84%
23
28
✓
ECU −16.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@#16Ohio State
16%
84%
17
37
✓
OSU −16.5
–
–
Final
UCLA@Oregon State
31%
68%
27
19
✗
ORST −8.1
–
–
Final
#20Florida State@ClemsonUpset
45%
55%
30
35
✓
CLEM −2.1
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma State@#14Texas A&M
52%
48%
30
29
✓
OKST −0.9
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Virginia
41%
59%
30
24
✗
UVA −3.7
–
–
Final
California@Washington
60%
40%
23
31
✗
CAL −4.1
–
–
Final
#8Virginia Tech@Marshall
88%
12%
30
10
✓
VT −19.7
–
–
Final
#12Arkansas@#4Alabama
28%
72%
14
38
✓
ALA −9.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#24Illinois
20%
80%
20
23
✓
ILL −14.1
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#13Miami (FL)Upset
17%
83%
28
24
✗
MIA −15.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@San Jose State
44%
56%
24
34
✓
SJSU −2.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Troy
26%
74%
35
38
✓
TROY −11.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Idaho
60%
40%
48
24
✓
FRES −4.2
–
–
Final
UConn@Buffalo
65%
35%
17
3
✓
CONN −6.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@FIUUpset
14%
86%
36
31
✗
FIU −17.7
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@Auburn
4.7%
95%
14
30
✓
AUB −27.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@#19USF
8.9%
91%
24
52
✓
USF −22.4
–
–
Final
#11Florida@Kentucky
74%
26%
48
10
✓
FLA −10.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Baylor
14%
86%
31
56
✓
BAY −18.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@North Texas
53%
47%
21
24
✗
IU −1.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Mississippi State
16%
84%
20
26
✓
MSST −16.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#15South Carolina
16%
84%
3
21
✓
SC −16.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@#17Texas Tech
20%
80%
34
35
✓
TTU −14.1
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Wyoming
70%
30%
38
14
✓
NEB −8.4
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
USC@Arizona State
45%
55%
22
43
✓
ASU −2.2
–
–
Final
#6Oregon@Arizona
78%
22%
56
31
✓
ORE −13.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UCF@BYU
60%
40%
17
24
✗
UCF −4.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Tulsa@#2Boise State
8.4%
92%
21
41
✓
BOIS −22.9
–
–
Final
Missouri@#5Oklahoma
18%
82%
28
38
✓
OU −15.4
–
–
Final
#10LSU@#18West Virginia
51%
49%
47
21
✓
LSU −0.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah StateUpset
22%
78%
35
34
✗
USU −13.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Sep 25 · 12:00 AM ET UC Davis vs Hawaii Hawaii −32.8 98%
Sat, Sep 24 · 1:00 PM ET UMass at Boston College UMass −2.5 56%
Sat, Sep 24 · 7:00 PM ET North Dakota State at Minnesota Minnesota −0.8 52%
Sat, Sep 24 · 6:00 PM ET Sam Houston at New Mexico Sam Houston −1.6 54%
Sun, Sep 25 · TBD Georgia State vs Houston Houston −16.5 84%
Sat, Sep 24 · 3:30 PM ET South Dakota at #3 Wisconsin Wisconsin −48.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 24 · 3:00 PM ET Tennessee State at Air Force Air Force −28.1 95%
Sat, Sep 24 · 2:00 PM ET VMI at Akron Akron −12.8 78%
Sun, Sep 25 · TBD Central Arkansas at Arkansas State Arkansas State −30.9 97%
Sat, Sep 24 · 3:30 PM ET South Alabama at Kent State Kent State −8.6 70%
Sat, Sep 24 · 9:00 PM ET Southern Utah vs UNLV UNLV −18.2 86%
Sat, Sep 24 · 3:30 PM ET Cal Poly at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −38.9 99%
Sat, Sep 24 · 2:00 PM ET Portland State at #9 TCU TCU −51.6 >99%