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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 47

Wilder than 47% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockColorado over Utah9.3% chance · won 17-14
  • Runner-upBoston College over Miami (FL)13% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upLouisville over USF23% chance · won 34-24

Upsets

Wed, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
27%
73%
14
21
✓
OHIO −9.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#23Texas@#12Texas A&M
29%
71%
27
25
✗
TA&M −8.2
–
–

Fri, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois
11%
89%
12
18
✓
NIU −19.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@USFUpset
23%
77%
34
24
✗
USF −11.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Temple
11%
89%
16
34
✓
TEM −19.1
–
–
Final
Iowa@#25Nebraska
29%
71%
7
20
✓
NEB −8.3
–
–
Final
#9Houston@#24Tulsa
56%
44%
48
16
✓
HOU −2.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Buffalo
50%
50%
42
28
✗
BGSU −0.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Western Michigan
3.3%
97%
19
68
✓
WMU −29.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
74%
26%
45
28
✓
TOL −10.8
–
–
Final
#10Arkansas@#2LSU
20%
80%
17
41
✓
LSU −13.2
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Colorado@UtahUpset
9.3%
91%
17
14
✗
UTAH −20.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@#19Miami (FL)Upset
13%
87%
24
17
✗
MIA −17.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
California@Arizona State
30%
70%
47
38
✗
ASU −7.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Rutgers@UConn
62%
38%
22
40
✗
RUTG −5.2
–
–
Final
#18Georgia@Georgia Tech
56%
44%
31
17
✓
UGA −2.9
–
–
Final
#22Michigan State@Northwestern
63%
37%
31
17
✓
MSU −6.0
–
–
Final
Ohio State@#11Michigan
24%
76%
34
40
✓
MICH −10.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Syracuse
64%
36%
30
13
✓
CIN −6.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#5Oklahoma
3.0%
97%
6
26
✓
OU −29.8
–
–
Final
Rice@SMU
18%
82%
24
27
✓
SMU −14.5
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Kentucky
56%
44%
7
10
✗
TENN −3.0
–
–
Final
Troy@Western Kentucky
38%
62%
18
41
✓
WKU −4.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
16%
84%
41
56
✓
NCSU −15.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#4Boise State
1.8%
98%
14
36
✓
BOIS −33.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Utah State
56%
44%
17
21
✗
NEV −3.1
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
71%
29%
31
18
✓
FIU −9.3
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@Auburn
89%
11%
42
14
✓
ALA −19.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Indiana
62%
38%
33
25
✓
PUR −5.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@Minnesota
73%
27%
7
27
✗
ILL −10.1
–
–
Final
Duke@North Carolina
13%
87%
21
37
✓
UNC −17.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Wake Forest
43%
57%
41
7
✗
WAKE −2.4
–
–
Final
#15Virginia Tech@Virginia
69%
31%
38
0
✓
VT −8.2
–
–
Final
Penn State@#8Wisconsin
12%
88%
7
45
✓
WIS −18.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Marshall
44%
56%
27
34
✓
MRSH −1.7
–
–
Final
#21MissourivsKansas
93%
7.4%
24
10
✓
MIZ −23.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#3Oregon
3.1%
97%
21
49
✓
ORE −29.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arizona
26%
74%
37
45
✓
ARIZ −10.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Florida Atlantic
56%
44%
35
38
✗
UAB −3.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Louisiana Tech
9.1%
91%
0
44
✓
LT −20.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@Southern Miss
1.5%
98%
7
44
✓
USM −34.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@Colorado State
74%
26%
45
21
✓
AF −10.9
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
Washington State@Washington
28%
72%
21
38
✓
WASH −8.7
–
–
Final
Clemson@#20South Carolina
33%
67%
13
34
✓
SC −6.4
–
–
Final
#13Notre Dame@#7Stanford
19%
81%
14
28
✓
STAN −13.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
32%
68%
27
24
✗
FRES −6.7
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
UCLA@#17USC
13%
87%
0
50
✓
USC −17.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
85%
15%
31
14
✓
SDSU −17.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Hawaii
7.5%
92%
23
35
✓
HAW −22.7
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Pittsburgh@West Virginia
30%
70%
20
21
✓
WVU −7.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@UCF
20%
80%
14
31
✓
UCF −12.8
–
–

Sun, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#16Florida State@Florida
52%
48%
21
7
✓
FSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Texas TechvsBaylor
36%
64%
42
66
✓
BAY −5.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Mississippi State
13%
87%
3
31
✓
MSST −17.3
–
–