The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 67

Wilder than 67% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern over Nebraska11% chance · won 28-25
  • Runner-upLouisville over West Virginia17% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upNorthern Illinois over Toledo25% chance · won 63-60

Upsets

Tue, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
25%
75%
63
60
✗
TOL −10.1
–
–

Thu, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
13%
87%
3
35
✓
M-OH −17.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Temple@Ohio
57%
43%
31
35
✗
TEM −3.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#24USC@Colorado
83%
17%
42
17
✓
USC −15.8
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#13Florida State@Boston College
77%
23%
38
7
✓
FSU −12.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UCF
50%
50%
24
17
✗
TLSA −0.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Syracuse@UConn
38%
62%
21
28
✓
CONN −4.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Michigan State
6.3%
94%
24
31
✓
MSU −24.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@#22Ohio State
3.2%
97%
20
34
✓
OSU −29.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Texas
26%
74%
20
52
✓
TEX −10.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@West VirginiaUpset
17%
83%
38
35
✗
WVU −14.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
45%
55%
33
31
✗
EMU −1.4
–
–
Final
#14Michigan@IowaUpset
62%
38%
16
24
✗
MICH −5.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#25Florida
19%
81%
21
26
✓
FLA −13.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#20Georgia
2.8%
97%
16
63
✓
UGA −30.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
18%
82%
10
13
✓
ISU −14.2
–
–
Final
Virginia@Maryland
43%
57%
31
13
✗
MD −2.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@NC State
54%
46%
0
13
✗
UNC −2.2
–
–
Final
#18TCU@Wyoming
84%
16%
31
20
✓
TCU −16.1
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Duke@Miami (FL)
11%
89%
14
49
✓
MIA −19.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@SMU
5.5%
94%
24
45
✓
SMU −25.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Kentucky
38%
62%
13
30
✓
UK −4.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#19NebraskaUpset
11%
89%
28
25
✗
NEB −19.2
–
–
Final
#9Texas A&M@#5Oklahoma
17%
83%
25
41
✓
OU −14.6
–
–
Final
#2Stanford@Oregon State
93%
7.2%
38
13
✓
STAN −23.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@Rice
52%
48%
37
41
✗
UTEP −1.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@#8Wisconsin
4.4%
96%
17
62
✓
WIS −27.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
24%
76%
35
36
✓
UL −10.7
–
–
Final
Army@Air Force
21%
79%
14
24
✓
AF −12.5
–
–
Final
Troy@Navy
19%
81%
14
42
✓
NAVY −13.7
–
–
Final
Idaho@San Jose State
26%
74%
32
29
✗
SJSU −9.8
–
–
Final
FIU@Western Kentucky
62%
38%
9
10
✗
FIU −5.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@East Carolina
72%
28%
48
28
✓
USM −9.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Florida Atlantic
84%
16%
39
21
✓
ARST −16.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
24%
76%
7
30
✓
CAL −10.8
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#15Houston@UAB
94%
5.9%
56
13
✓
HOU −25.4
–
–
Final
Utah@Arizona
42%
58%
34
21
✗
ARIZ −2.6
–
–
Final
USF@Rutgers
44%
56%
17
20
✓
RUTG −2.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Pittsburgh
54%
46%
26
23
✓
CIN −1.9
–
–
Final
#23Missouri@BaylorUpset
54%
46%
39
42
✗
MIZ −2.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Tennessee
11%
89%
0
24
✓
TENN −18.9
–
–
Final
#10South Carolina@#17Arkansas
42%
58%
28
44
✓
ARK −2.9
–
–
Final
#16Arizona State@UCLAUpset
74%
26%
28
29
✗
ASU −10.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#7Oregon@Washington
84%
16%
34
17
✓
ORE −16.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Fresno State
47%
53%
41
21
✗
FRES −0.8
–
–
Final
#3Boise State@UNLV
99%
0.6%
48
21
✓
BOIS −40.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Central Michigan@Kent State
36%
64%
21
24
✓
KENT −5.1
–
–

Sun, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Utah State@Hawaii
31%
69%
35
31
✗
HAW −7.6
–
–

Time TBD 4 games

Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
2.0%
98%
7
35
✓
SDSU −32.6
–
–
Final
#11Notre Dame@Wake Forest
76%
24%
24
17
✓
ND −11.5
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#6Oklahoma State
8.0%
92%
45
52
✓
OKST −22.1
–
–
Final
#4LSU@#1Alabama
31%
69%
9
6
✗
ALA −7.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 5 · 7:30 PM ET UT Martin at Mississippi State Mississippi State −50.9 >99%