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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 64 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 86

Wilder than 86% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockIndiana State over Western Kentucky0.9% chance · won 44-16
  • Runner-upLouisville over Kentucky18% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upUNLV over Hawaii18% chance · won 40-20

Upsets

Fri, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#14LSU@#19Mississippi State
41%
59%
19
6
✗
MSST −2.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
#21West Virginia@Maryland
40%
60%
37
31
✗
MD −3.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Michigan
7.7%
92%
3
31
✓
MICH −21.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Bowling Green
31%
69%
28
27
✗
BGSU −7.1
–
–
Final
Penn State@Temple
26%
74%
14
10
✗
TEM −9.3
–
–
Final
#15Auburn@ClemsonUpset
53%
47%
24
38
✗
AUB −1.8
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Iowa
33%
67%
27
31
✓
IOWA −6.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
34%
66%
14
44
✓
WMU −6.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
42%
58%
7
30
✓
VAN −2.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@Georgia Tech
18%
82%
24
66
✓
GT −13.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Boston CollegeUpset
23%
77%
20
19
✗
BC −11.0
–
–
Final
Colorado StatevsColorado
32%
68%
14
28
✓
COLO −6.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#9TCU
2.1%
98%
17
38
✓
TCU −31.5
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Texas@UCLA
52%
48%
49
20
✓
TEX −1.3
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#11Florida
18%
82%
23
33
✓
FLA −13.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Notre Dame
35%
65%
13
31
✓
ND −5.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Minnesota
39%
61%
23
29
✓
MINN −3.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
19%
80%
17
28
✓
UNC −12.8
–
–
Final
Washington@#24Nebraska
17%
83%
38
51
✓
NEB −14.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@New Mexico
84%
16%
59
13
✓
TTU −15.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Army
41%
59%
14
21
✓
ARMY −2.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Cincinnati
7.1%
93%
14
59
✓
CIN −22.4
–
–
Final
#10WisconsinvsNorthern Illinois
70%
30%
49
7
✓
WIS −8.4
–
–
Final
Tulane@UABUpset
22%
78%
49
10
✗
UAB −11.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Jose State
77%
23%
17
14
✓
NEV −11.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#8Virginia Tech
9.2%
91%
7
26
✓
VT −20.2
–
–
Final
#22UCF@FIUUpset
53%
47%
10
17
✗
UCF −1.7
–
–
Final
Navy@#16South Carolina
27%
73%
21
24
✓
SC −8.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@San Diego State
28%
72%
24
42
✓
SDSU −8.3
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Louisville@KentuckyUpset
18%
82%
24
17
✗
UK −13.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@Ohio
26%
74%
7
44
✓
OHIO −9.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@#13Texas A&M
2.3%
98%
7
37
✓
TA&M −30.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#23Illinois
29%
71%
14
17
✓
ILL −8.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Ball State
32%
68%
25
28
✓
BALL −6.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Kansas State
21%
79%
0
37
✓
KSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Houston@Louisiana Tech
61%
39%
35
34
✓
HOU −4.8
–
–
Final
Troy@#7Arkansas
6.4%
94%
28
38
✓
ARK −23.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@#2Alabama
1.2%
99%
0
41
✓
ALA −34.9
–
–
Final
#12Ohio State@#18Miami (FL)
45%
55%
6
24
✓
MIA −1.4
–
–
Final
Utah@BYU
31%
69%
54
10
✗
BYU −7.1
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#6Oklahoma State@Tulsa
64%
36%
59
33
✓
OKST −6.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UNLVUpset
82%
18%
20
40
✗
HAW −14.5
–
–
Final
#1Stanford@Arizona
74%
26%
37
10
✓
STAN −10.3
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Iowa State@UConnUpset
24%
76%
24
20
✗
CONN −10.4
–
–
Final
#3Boise State@Toledo
73%
27%
40
15
✓
BOIS −9.8
–
–

Sun, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Syracuse@USC
16%
84%
17
38
✓
USC −15.0
–
–
Final
#4Oklahoma@#17Florida State
53%
47%
23
13
✓
OU −1.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
44%
56%
16
10
✗
NMSU −1.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 17 · 5:30 PM ET Presbyterian vs California California −32.8 98%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M at #20 USF USF −41.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 1:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina at Georgia Georgia −21.1 92%
Sat, Sep 17 · 3:30 PM ET South Carolina State at Indiana Indiana −31.9 98%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Indiana State at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −37.0 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Western Illinois at #25 Missouri Missouri −42.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 6:00 PM ET South Alabama at NC State NC State −25.3 95%
Sat, Sep 17 · 6:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Wake Forest Wake Forest −35.3 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Memphis Memphis −18.8 89%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin vs Baylor Baylor −32.3 98%
Sat, Sep 17 · 10:00 PM ET North Dakota at Fresno State Fresno State −34.2 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Louisiana Louisiana −37.3 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 3:30 PM ET Missouri State at #5 Oregon Oregon −33.3 98%
Sat, Sep 17 · 12:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Purdue Purdue −37.0 99%
Sun, Sep 18 · TBD Northwestern State at SMU SMU −41.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Southern Miss Southern Miss −37.6 99%