Bowls slate, 2011
The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 35 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.
Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the
favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood
that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.
Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1
Chaos 4
Wilder than 4% of weeks in the archive.
10 upsets against 13.3 expected
- Biggest shockLouisiana over San Diego State33% chance · won 32-30
- Runner-upSMU over Pittsburgh36% chance · won 28-6
- Runner-upMarshall over FIU38% chance · won 20-10
No games match.
Sat, Dec 17
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Early 1 game
Final
74%
26%
37
15
✓
TEM −11.0
–
–
Afternoon 1 game
Final
55%
45%
24
23
✓
OHIO −2.5
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
67%
33%
30
32
✗
SDSU −7.6
–
–
Tue, Dec 20
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
62%
38%
10
20
✗
FIU −5.5
–
–
Wed, Dec 21
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
75%
25%
31
24
✓
TCU −11.2
–
–
Thu, Dec 22
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
17%
83%
24
56
✓
BOIS −14.7
–
–
Sat, Dec 24
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
36%
64%
17
24
✓
USM −5.3
–
–
Mon, Dec 26
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Afternoon 1 game
Final
58%
42%
41
24
✓
MIZ −3.8
–
–
Tue, Dec 27
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Afternoon 1 game
Final
60%
40%
32
37
✗
WMU −4.4
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
41%
59%
24
31
✓
NCSU −3.0
–
–
Wed, Dec 28
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Afternoon 1 game
Final
60%
40%
42
41
✓
TOL −4.7
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
42%
58%
10
21
✓
TEX −2.7
–
–
Thu, Dec 29
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Afternoon 1 game
Final
50%
50%
18
14
✓
FSU −0.6
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
30%
70%
56
67
✓
BAY −7.9
–
–
Fri, Dec 30
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Early 1 game
Final
40%
60%
24
21
✗
TLSA −3.4
–
–
Afternoon 2 games
Final
63%
37%
27
13
✓
RUTG −5.9
–
–
Final
68%
32%
23
17
✓
MSST −7.9
–
–
Late night 1 game
Final
15%
85%
14
31
✓
OU −16.4
–
–
Sat, Dec 31
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Early 2 games
Final
80%
20%
33
22
✓
TA&M −13.7
–
–
Final
48%
52%
27
30
✓
UTAH −0.2
–
–
Afternoon 2 games
Final
58%
42%
20
14
✓
ILL −3.7
–
–
Final
55%
45%
31
24
✓
CIN −2.4
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
40%
60%
24
43
✓
AUB −3.6
–
–
Mon, Jan 2
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Early 4 games
Final
74%
26%
30
14
✓
HOU −10.5
–
–
Final
51%
49%
17
24
✗
OSU −1.1
–
–
Final
45%
55%
33
30
✗
UGA −1.4
–
–
Final
44%
56%
13
30
✓
SC −2.1
–
–
Afternoon 1 game
Final
42%
58%
38
45
✓
ORE −2.7
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
44%
56%
38
41
✓
OKST −1.7
–
–
Tue, Jan 3
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
55%
45%
23
20
✓
MICH −2.3
–
–
Wed, Jan 4
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
45%
55%
70
33
✗
CLEM −1.6
–
–
Fri, Jan 6
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
31%
69%
16
29
✓
ARK −7.5
–
–
Sat, Jan 7
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Early 1 game
Final
36%
64%
28
6
✗
PITT −5.1
–
–
Sun, Jan 8
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
50%
50%
20
38
✗
ARST −0.6
–
–
Mon, Jan 9
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
49%
51%
21
0
✗
ALA −0.1
–
–
