The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 34

Wilder than 34% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 16.0 expected

  • Biggest shockTCU over Boise State15% chance · won 36-35
  • Runner-upWyoming over Air Force19% chance · won 25-17
  • Runner-upWashington State over Arizona State19% chance · won 37-27

Upsets

Tue, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Bowling Green
64%
36%
45
14
✓
NIU −6.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
24%
76%
63
66
✓
TOL −10.9
–
–

Wed, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)@Temple
16%
84%
21
24
✓
TEM −15.4
–
–

Thu, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
68%
32%
43
28
✓
OHIO −8.0
–
–
Final
#14Virginia Tech@Georgia Tech
52%
48%
37
26
✓
VT −1.4
–
–
Final
#10Houston@Tulane
97%
2.9%
73
17
✓
HOU −30.7
–
–

Fri, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
USF@Syracuse
61%
39%
37
17
✓
USF −4.8
–
–

Sat, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 19 games

Final
Rice@Northwestern
19%
81%
6
28
✓
NU −13.5
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Louisville
47%
53%
21
14
✗
LOU −0.6
–
–
Final
#19Texas@MissouriUpset
43%
57%
5
17
✓
MIZ −2.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@Tulsa
14%
86%
17
59
✓
TLSA −16.6
–
–
Final
#25Nebraska@Penn State
49%
51%
17
14
✗
NEB −0.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#21Clemson
14%
86%
28
31
✓
CLEM −17.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Cincinnati
35%
65%
24
21
✗
CIN −5.7
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Iowa
46%
54%
37
21
✗
IOWA −1.2
–
–
Final
#24Ohio State@PurdueUpset
75%
25%
23
26
✗
OSU −11.0
–
–
Final
Florida@#16South Carolina
31%
68%
12
17
✓
SC −7.2
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma State@Texas Tech
85%
15%
66
6
✓
OKST −17.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
28%
72%
8
38
✓
VAN −8.7
–
–
Final
NC State@Boston College
57%
43%
10
14
✗
NCSU −3.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Eastern Michigan
35%
65%
17
30
✓
EMU −5.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@Troy
37%
63%
38
33
✗
TROY −4.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air ForceUpset
19%
81%
25
17
✗
AF −13.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Akron
64%
36%
35
3
✓
KENT −6.3
–
–
Final
Baylor@Kansas
80%
20%
31
30
✓
BAY −14.0
–
–
Final
Arizona@Colorado
66%
34%
29
48
✗
ARIZ −7.2
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Duke@Virginia
23%
77%
21
31
✓
UVA −11.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
20%
80%
33
34
✓
USU −13.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
23%
77%
21
30
✓
ARST −11.5
–
–
Final
#23Miami (FL)@#9Florida State
30%
70%
19
23
✓
FSU −8.0
–
–
Final
Auburn@#15Georgia
26%
74%
7
45
✓
UGA −9.8
–
–
Final
#17TCU@#5Boise StateUpset
15%
85%
36
35
✗
BOIS −16.3
–
–
Final
#8Wisconsin@Minnesota
95%
5.3%
42
13
✓
WIS −26.3
–
–
Final
RutgersvsArmy
73%
27%
27
12
✓
RUTG −10.1
–
–
Final
#20Michigan@Illinois
54%
46%
31
14
✓
MICH −2.3
–
–
Final
#11Texas A&M@Kansas StateUpset
55%
45%
50
53
✗
TA&M −2.5
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana-Monroe
36%
64%
14
42
✓
ULM −5.3
–
–
Final
Navy@SMU
39%
61%
24
17
✗
SMU −3.8
–
–
Final
Washington@#22USC
21%
79%
17
40
✓
USC −12.6
–
–
Final
UAB@Memphis
52%
48%
41
35
✓
UAB −1.4
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#12Arkansas
19%
81%
7
49
✓
ARK −13.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Colorado State
79%
21%
18
15
✓
SDSU −13.1
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@FIU
10.0%
90%
7
41
✓
FIU −20.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@California
29%
72%
6
23
✓
CAL −8.6
–
–
Final
UCLA@Utah
26%
74%
6
31
✓
UTAH −9.9
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Marylandvs#13Notre Dame
11%
89%
21
45
✓
ND −19.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Ole Miss
53%
46%
27
7
✓
LT −1.9
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@Mississippi State
85%
15%
24
7
✓
ALA −17.0
–
–
Final
#6Oregon@#2Stanford
33%
67%
53
30
✗
STAN −6.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@New Mexico State
57%
43%
45
48
✗
FRES −3.3
–
–
Final
UCF@Southern Miss
19%
81%
29
30
✓
USM −13.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@UTEP
40%
60%
17
22
✓
UTEP −3.8
–
–
Final
Idaho@BYU
10%
90%
7
42
✓
BYU −19.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
UNLV@New Mexico
59%
41%
14
21
✗
UNLV −3.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Nevada
27%
73%
28
42
✓
NEV −9.4
–
–
Final
#18Arizona State@Washington StateUpset
81%
19%
27
37
✗
ASU −14.4
–
–

Sun, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Western Kentucky@#3LSU
0.5%
>99%
9
42
✓
LSU −41.7
–
–