The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2011

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 1

Wilder than 1% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 14.4 expected

  • Biggest shockWestern Kentucky over Middle Tennessee20% chance · won 36-33
  • Runner-upBuffalo over Ohio26% chance · won 38-37
  • Runner-upSouthern Miss over Navy33% chance · won 63-35

Upsets

Thu, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Western Kentucky@Middle TennesseeUpset
20%
80%
36
33
✗
MTSU −14.1
–
–
Final
California@#6Oregon
11%
89%
15
43
✓
ORE −20.1
–
–

Fri, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#3Boise State@Fresno State
93%
6.7%
57
7
✓
BOIS −24.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Mississippi State@UAB
82%
18%
21
3
✓
MSST −15.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@#21Georgia Tech
19%
81%
16
21
✓
GT −14.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@North Carolina
15%
85%
7
14
✓
UNC −17.5
–
–
Final
#5Oklahomavs#18Texas
73%
27%
55
17
✓
OU −10.0
–
–
Final
UConn@West Virginia
22%
78%
16
43
✓
WVU −12.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
38%
62%
17
45
✓
PUR −5.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#16South Carolina
12%
88%
3
54
✓
SC −19.6
–
–
Final
#22Florida State@Wake ForestUpset
65%
35%
30
35
✗
FSU −6.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Rice
21%
79%
6
28
✓
RICE −13.7
–
–
Final
Army@Miami (OH)
55%
45%
28
35
✗
ARMY −2.1
–
–
Final
FIU@Akron
85%
15%
27
17
✓
FIU −16.8
–
–
Final
Temple@Ball State
68%
32%
42
0
✓
TEM −7.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
24%
76%
21
45
✓
WMU −11.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@Indiana
78%
22%
41
20
✓
ILL −12.5
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Boston College@#15Clemson
14%
86%
14
36
✓
CLEM −17.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
11%
89%
16
54
✓
TOL −20.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@#14Notre Dame
23%
77%
33
59
✓
ND −12.3
–
–
Final
#9Florida@#7LSU
34%
66%
11
41
✓
LSU −7.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@NC State
18%
82%
24
38
✓
NCSU −15.6
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Rutgers
49%
51%
10
34
✓
RUTG −0.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@#8Oklahoma State
3.5%
96%
28
70
✓
OKST −30.1
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon State
48%
52%
27
37
✓
ORST −0.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@Penn State
43%
57%
3
13
✓
PSU −3.0
–
–
Final
#23Arizona State@Utah
54%
46%
35
14
✓
ASU −1.5
–
–
Final
#24Miami (FL)@#13Virginia Tech
34%
66%
35
38
✓
VT −6.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Buffalo
74%
26%
37
38
✗
OHIO −10.6
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas State
51%
49%
17
24
✗
MIZ −0.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Navy
33%
67%
63
35
✗
NAVY −7.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
22%
78%
10
40
✓
NIU −12.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Idaho
67%
33%
24
11
✓
LT −7.1
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
#25Auburn@#12Arkansas
34%
66%
14
38
✓
ARK −6.8
–
–
Final
#10Michigan@Northwestern
79%
21%
42
24
✓
MICH −13.2
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Baylor
21%
79%
26
49
✓
BAY −13.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Houston
20%
80%
3
56
✓
HOU −14.2
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana
52%
48%
17
31
✗
TROY −0.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#1Alabama
3.5%
96%
0
34
✓
ALA −30.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@UCF
16%
84%
6
16
✓
UCF −16.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
70%
30%
24
19
✓
ARST −8.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
11%
89%
0
37
✓
NEV −20.5
–
–
Final
#17Georgia@Tennessee
48%
52%
20
12
✗
TENN −1.1
–
–
Final
#11Texas A&M@Texas Tech
54%
46%
45
40
✓
TA&M −1.4
–
–
Final
Colorado@#2Stanford
3.5%
96%
7
48
✓
STAN −30.1
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@North Texas
42%
58%
17
31
✓
UNT −3.7
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
San Jose State@BYU
19%
81%
16
29
✓
BYU −14.6
–
–
Final
#20TCU@San Diego State
59%
41%
27
14
✓
TCU −3.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@UCLA
42%
58%
25
28
✓
UCLA −3.3
–
–

Sun, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#19Ohio State@NebraskaUpset
47%
53%
27
34
✓
NEB −1.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah State
35%
65%
19
63
✓
USU −6.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Tulane
66%
34%
37
34
✓
SYR −6.6
–
–