The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 15 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 25 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 63

Wilder than 63% of weeks in the archive.

6 upsets against 5.7 expected

  • Biggest shockTennessee over Florida16% chance · won 34-32
  • Runner-upColorado over Texas19% chance · won 39-37
  • Runner-upAir Force over Utah20% chance · won 38-37

Upsets

Fri, Nov 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Marshall@Toledo
46%
54%
36
41
✓
TOL −0.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@Alabama
41%
59%
15
28
✓
ALA −3.1
–
–

Sat, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Missouri@Michigan State
28%
72%
7
55
✓
MSU −8.9
–
–
Final
Army@Navy
43%
57%
26
17
✗
NAVY −2.5
–
–
Final
Houston@#18Georgia
1.8%
98%
7
35
✓
UGA −33.3
–
–
Final
Penn State@Virginia
66%
34%
14
20
✗
PSU −6.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
11%
89%
27
38
✓
MISS −19.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Indiana
23%
77%
15
26
✓
IU −11.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Clemson
4.0%
96%
31
59
✓
CLEM −27.7
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#6Virginia Tech
80%
20%
26
24
✓
MIA −13.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Cincinnati
3.0%
97%
10
42
✓
CIN −29.9
–
–
Final
SMU@North Carolina
6.4%
94%
10
19
✓
UNC −24.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Pittsburgh
36%
64%
6
24
✓
PITT −5.1
–
–
Final
Utah@Air ForceUpset
80%
20%
37
38
✗
UTAH −14.0
–
–

Afternoon 8 games

Final
Utah State@#17Fresno State
5.0%
95%
21
70
✓
FRES −26.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@Troy
40%
60%
16
18
✓
TROY −3.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#8Florida State
23%
77%
17
28
✓
FSU −11.6
–
–
Final
#9Tennessee@#2FloridaUpset
16%
84%
34
32
✗
FLA −15.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#11Oregon
18%
82%
14
17
✓
ORE −14.3
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Purdue
43%
57%
24
18
✗
PUR −2.1
–
–
Final
#22Stanford@San Jose State
86%
14%
41
14
✓
STAN −17.6
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#16UCLA
19%
81%
42
52
✓
UCLA −13.6
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
Auburn@LSU
27%
73%
14
27
✓
LSU −9.2
–
–
Final
#12Colorado@#3TexasUpset
19%
81%
39
37
✗
TEX −13.8
–
–
Final
#13BYU@Mississippi State
73%
27%
41
38
✓
BYU −10.2
–
–