The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 34

Wilder than 34% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 15.4 expected

  • Biggest shockSyracuse over Virginia Tech13% chance · won 22-14
  • Runner-upKent State over Ohio17% chance · won 24-14
  • Runner-upUtah State over UCF29% chance · won 30-27

Upsets

Thu, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
West Virginia@#1Miami (FL)
1.5%
98%
3
45
✓
MIA −34.7
–
–

Fri, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
71%
29%
34
38
✗
FRES −9.3
–
–

Sat, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
Clemson@Wake Forest
54%
46%
21
14
✓
CLEM −2.0
–
–
Final
#6Oklahoma@#3Nebraska
32%
68%
10
20
✓
NEB −7.0
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Temple
39%
61%
33
7
✗
TEM −4.0
–
–
Final
#16Syracuse@#2Virginia TechUpset
13%
87%
22
14
✗
VT −17.2
–
–
Final
#23Ohio State@Penn StateUpset
65%
35%
27
29
✗
OSU −6.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Wisconsin
41%
59%
42
28
✗
WIS −3.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#22Purdue
28%
72%
27
32
✓
PUR −8.8
–
–
Final
Auburn@Arkansas
59%
41%
17
42
✗
AUB −4.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Duke
65%
35%
42
28
✓
VAN −6.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@OhioUpset
17%
83%
24
14
✗
OHIO −14.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@Army
58%
42%
35
42
✗
TULN −3.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Central Michigan
71%
29%
33
24
✓
NIU −9.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@UConn
63%
37%
10
5
✓
BALL −5.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@NC State
26%
74%
0
24
✓
NCSU −9.8
–
–
Final
#4Texas@Missouri
90%
9.6%
35
16
✓
TEX −21.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Memphis
45%
55%
17
14
✗
MEM −1.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Texas A&M
38%
62%
21
24
✓
TA&M −4.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Cincinnati
53%
47%
28
13
✓
LOU −1.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Miami (OH)
47%
53%
11
25
✓
M-OH −0.7
–
–
Final
Rice@Louisiana Tech
35%
65%
38
41
✓
LT −5.5
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Utah@Colorado State
53%
47%
17
19
✗
UTAH −1.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Baylor
76%
24%
63
19
✓
TTU −11.7
–
–
Final
Idaho@Arkansas State
33%
67%
31
34
✓
ARST −6.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Eastern Michigan
51%
49%
20
24
✗
BUF −1.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Middle Tennessee
27%
73%
35
39
✓
MTSU −9.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@SMU
43%
57%
14
40
✓
SMU −2.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Southern Miss
8.7%
91%
14
58
✓
USM −21.4
–
–
Final
#9UCLA@#13Stanford
52%
48%
28
38
✗
UCLA −1.2
–
–
Final
#18Maryland@#8Florida State
26%
74%
31
52
✓
FSU −10.0
–
–
Final
Georgia@#5Florida
14%
86%
10
24
✓
FLA −17.1
–
–
Final
#7Michigan@Iowa
66%
34%
32
26
✓
MICH −7.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@#19Kansas State
12%
88%
6
40
✓
KSU −18.3
–
–
Final
California@Oregon State
12%
88%
10
19
✓
ORST −18.7
–
–
Final
Tulsa@San Jose State
26%
74%
27
63
✓
SJSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
22%
78%
12
17
✓
UL −11.7
–
–
Final
UCF@Utah State
71%
29%
27
30
✗
UCF −9.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
43%
57%
33
52
✓
UNM −2.5
–
–
Final
#15South Carolina@#10Tennessee
32%
68%
10
17
✓
TENN −7.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Wyoming
73%
27%
47
26
✓
UNLV −10.2
–
–
Final
USC@Arizona
64%
36%
41
34
✓
USC −6.3
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#17Colorado@Oklahoma State
75%
25%
22
19
✓
COLO −11.4
–
–
Final
#11Oregon@#24Washington State
48%
52%
24
17
✗
WSU −0.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Marshall
17%
83%
33
50
✓
MRSH −14.9
–
–
Final
Navy@#14Toledo
2.0%
98%
20
21
✓
TOL −32.7
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#21Boston College
28%
72%
17
21
✓
BC −8.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@Boise State
12%
88%
7
49
✓
BOIS −18.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@LSU
34%
66%
35
24
✗
LSU −6.1
–
–
Final
#12BYU@San Diego State
88%
12%
59
21
✓
BYU −19.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Washington@Arizona State
44%
56%
33
31
✗
ASU −2.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM ET Liberty at USF USF −22.4 92%
Sat, Oct 27 · 2:35 PM ET Murray State at Minnesota Minnesota −40.4 99%
Sat, Oct 27 · 3:00 PM ET Southern Utah at Troy Troy −30.4 97%