The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 100

Wilder than 100% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 12.8 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern State over TCU0.4% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upIndiana State over Eastern Michigan1.2% chance · won 21-14
  • Runner-upNorthern Iowa over Ball State5.7% chance · won 42-39

Upsets

Thu, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#18South Carolina@#19Mississippi State
43%
57%
16
14
✗
MSST −3.2
–
–
Final
Rice@#3Nebraska
5.2%
95%
3
48
✓
NEB −27.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
#2Florida State@North CarolinaUpset
91%
9.4%
9
41
✗
FSU −21.8
–
–
Final
#5Virginia Tech@Rutgers
92%
8.2%
50
0
✓
VT −23.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@Navy
89%
11%
38
21
✓
BC −20.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#16Michigan
18%
82%
21
38
✓
MICH −15.4
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Penn State
49%
51%
18
6
✗
PSU −0.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Illinois
43%
57%
10
34
✓
ILL −3.1
–
–
Final
Akron@#22Purdue
18%
82%
14
33
✓
PUR −15.4
–
–
Final
#6Florida@Kentucky
90%
10%
44
10
✓
FLA −21.0
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Texas A&M
30%
70%
7
21
✓
TA&M −8.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@UConn
38%
62%
37
20
✗
CONN −4.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Ohio
58%
42%
31
28
✓
ISU −3.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@West Virginia
8.3%
92%
14
34
✓
WVU −23.0
–
–
Final
#8Toledo@Central Michigan
94%
5.6%
52
28
✓
TOL −26.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
59%
41%
14
21
✗
CIN −3.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#10Kansas State
6.4%
94%
0
64
✓
KSU −25.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Notre Dame
34%
66%
17
10
✗
ND −7.1
–
–
Final
#12Fresno State@Tulsa
82%
18%
37
18
✓
FRES −14.9
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
#20Ohio State@#23UCLA
45%
55%
6
13
✓
UCLA −2.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@#11Colorado
8.9%
91%
16
27
✓
COLO −22.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@Wake Forest
59%
41%
27
20
✓
MD −3.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@#17Washington
2.8%
97%
3
53
✓
WASH −31.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Alabama
37%
63%
10
31
✓
ALA −5.7
–
–
Final
UCF@Tulane
66%
34%
36
29
✓
UCF −7.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Nevada
55%
45%
20
28
✗
HAW −1.8
–
–
Final
Army@UAB
26%
74%
3
55
✓
UAB −10.6
–
–
Final
Utah@Indiana
52%
48%
28
26
✓
UTAH −0.7
–
–
Final
California@Washington State
14%
86%
20
51
✓
WSU −18.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@ClemsonUpset
20%
80%
26
24
✗
CLEM −14.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Duke
81%
19%
44
7
✓
NU −14.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Bowling Green
36%
64%
23
42
✓
BGSU −6.1
–
–
Final
#25Southern Miss@Louisiana
93%
6.6%
35
10
✓
USM −24.9
–
–
Final
NC State@SMU
87%
13%
26
17
✓
NCSU −18.5
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
San Diego State@Colorado StateUpset
22%
78%
14
7
✗
CSU −12.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Baylor
61%
39%
13
16
✗
UNM −4.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana-Monroe
96%
4.0%
38
20
✓
MTSU −28.9
–
–
Final
Auburn@Syracuse
54%
46%
14
31
✗
AUB −1.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@Boise State
45%
55%
17
42
✓
BOIS −2.0
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@North Texas
77%
23%
42
14
✓
TTU −12.3
–
–
Final
#7Texas@Houston
91%
9.4%
53
26
✓
TEX −21.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah State
31%
69%
43
42
✗
USU −8.4
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
UNLV@Arizona
34%
66%
21
38
✓
ARIZ −7.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Stanford
42%
58%
28
51
✓
STAN −3.6
–
–
Final
USC@#21Oregon
28%
72%
22
24
✓
ORE −9.6
–
–

Sun, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
USF@Memphis
43%
57%
9
17
✓
MEM −3.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:30 PM ET William & Mary at East Carolina East Carolina −41.1 99%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:00 PM ET Richmond at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −23.3 92%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at Arkansas State Arkansas State −2.4 55%
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at Ball State Ball State −26.3 94%
Sat, Sep 22 · 6:00 PM ET Indiana State at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −37.4 99%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:35 PM ET Sam Houston at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −17.7 86%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State at #13 TCU TCU −43.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Troy Troy −42.0 99%