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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 55

Wilder than 55% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockPittsburgh over Virginia Tech7.9% chance · won 38-7
  • Runner-upBuffalo over Ohio19% chance · won 44-0
  • Runner-upArkansas over Ole Miss26% chance · won 58-56

Upsets

Tue, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
East Carolina@TCU
48%
52%
37
30
✗
TCU −0.1
–
–

Thu, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#20North Carolina@#17Georgia Tech
38%
62%
21
28
✓
GT −4.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Colorado State@#12BYU
15%
86%
34
56
✓
BYU −16.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Oregon State@USC
30%
70%
13
16
✓
USC −7.8
–
–
Final
#5Virginia Tech@PittsburghUpset
92%
7.9%
7
38
✗
VT −23.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia
46%
54%
34
30
✗
UVA −1.1
–
–
Final
Temple@#1Miami (FL)
0.2%
>99%
0
38
✓
MIA −46.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Penn State
54%
46%
20
38
✗
USM −2.3
–
–
Final
Iowa@Wisconsin
53%
47%
28
34
✗
IOWA −1.7
–
–
Final
#22Illinois@#23Purdue
40%
60%
38
13
✗
PUR −3.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#4Florida
1.7%
98%
13
71
✓
FLA −33.7
–
–
Final
#3Texas@Baylor
97%
2.8%
49
10
✓
TEX −30.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Indiana
58%
42%
21
56
✗
NU −3.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Maryland
6.1%
94%
14
47
✓
MD −24.4
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
89%
11%
55
31
✓
NCSU −19.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@West Virginia
15%
85%
7
80
✓
WVU −16.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
28%
72%
34
38
✓
BALL −9.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@BuffaloUpset
81%
19%
0
44
✗
OHIO −14.4
–
–
Final
UConn@Cincinnati
6.1%
94%
28
45
✓
CIN −24.4
–
–
Final
Boise State@Louisiana Tech
51%
49%
42
48
✗
BOIS −0.8
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
#15Kansas State@Iowa State
55%
45%
42
3
✓
KSU −2.3
–
–
Final
Army@Air Force
21%
79%
24
34
✓
AF −12.2
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#24Texas Tech
35%
65%
0
12
✓
TTU −5.7
–
–
Final
#10Tennessee@Notre Dame
63%
37%
28
18
✓
TENN −5.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
26%
74%
14
17
✓
MSST −9.9
–
–
Final
Missouri@#18Colorado
15%
85%
24
38
✓
COLO −16.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#6Oklahoma
0.3%
>99%
0
58
✓
OU −43.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@Kent State
79%
21%
42
21
✓
MRSH −13.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Middle Tennessee
8.9%
91%
6
54
✓
MTSU −21.1
–
–
Final
Utah@UNLV
54%
46%
42
14
✓
UTAH −1.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Nevada
48%
52%
14
35
✓
NEV −0.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois
4.2%
96%
17
40
✓
NIU −27.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@California
56%
44%
38
24
✓
ARIZ −2.9
–
–
Final
#8Michigan@Michigan StateUpset
68%
32%
24
26
✗
MICH −7.9
–
–
Final
#7Florida State@Clemson
74%
26%
41
27
✓
FSU −10.8
–
–
Final
#13Stanford@WashingtonUpset
54%
46%
28
42
✗
STAN −2.2
–
–
Final
LSU@Alabama
37%
63%
35
21
✗
ALA −4.9
–
–
Final
Louisville@Tulane
76%
24%
52
7
✓
LOU −11.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Bowling Green
37%
63%
24
21
✗
BGSU −4.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@New Mexico State
30%
70%
22
20
✗
NMSU −7.7
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
#9UCLA@#25Washington State
55%
45%
14
20
✗
UCLA −2.4
–
–
Final
Houston@USF
17%
83%
6
45
✓
USF −14.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Ole Miss
26%
74%
58
56
✗
MISS −9.7
–
–
Final
Rice@Fresno State
19%
81%
24
52
✓
FRES −13.5
–
–
Final
#2Nebraska@Kansas
95%
5.0%
51
7
✓
NEB −26.7
–
–
Final
Ohio State@Minnesota
56%
44%
31
28
✓
OSU −3.1
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Idaho
27%
73%
38
42
✓
Idaho −9.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
65%
35%
20
15
✓
UNM −6.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#11Oregon
20%
80%
24
42
✓
ORE −12.7
–
–

Sun, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
28%
72%
10
34
✓
HAW −8.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Akron@UCF
21%
79%
17
57
✓
UCF −12.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 3 · 2:00 PM ET Wofford at #16 South Carolina South Carolina −44.7 >99%