The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 0

Wilder than 0% of weeks in the archive.

5 upsets against 14.2 expected

  • Biggest shockUConn over Rutgers14% chance · won 20-19
  • Runner-upClemson over Georgia Tech25% chance · won 47-44
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina over NC State42% chance · won 17-9

Upsets

Thu, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1Miami (FL)@Pittsburgh
96%
3.5%
43
21
✓
MIA −30.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Army@Boston College
6.7%
93%
10
31
✓
BC −24.9
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Maryland
29%
72%
20
32
✓
MD −9.6
–
–
Final
North Carolina@NC State
42%
58%
17
9
✗
NCSU −3.6
–
–
Final
#7Kansas State@#4Oklahoma
36%
64%
37
38
✓
OU −6.2
–
–
Final
UCF@#2Virginia Tech
5.9%
94%
14
46
✓
VT −25.9
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#20Northwestern
31%
70%
26
27
✓
NU −8.6
–
–
Final
Ohio State@Indiana
72%
28%
27
14
✓
OSU −9.7
–
–
Final
#23Purdue@Minnesota
60%
40%
35
28
✓
PUR −3.9
–
–
Final
Penn State@Iowa
26%
74%
18
24
✓
IOWA −10.5
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@Missouri
85%
15%
36
3
✓
NEB −17.1
–
–
Final
Alabama@#14South Carolina
27%
73%
36
37
✓
SC −10.3
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
14%
86%
10
31
✓
UVA −18.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Kentucky
69%
31%
42
31
✓
MISS −8.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Syracuse
35%
65%
30
44
✓
SYR −6.3
–
–
Final
Baylor@Iowa State
19%
81%
0
41
✓
ISU −14.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Louisville
27%
73%
21
38
✓
LOU −10.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
69%
31%
28
20
✓
M-OH −8.1
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
New Mexico@Utah
41%
59%
16
37
✓
UTAH −3.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
59%
41%
42
14
✓
CSU −3.8
–
–
Final
#22Mississippi State@#5Florida
21%
79%
0
52
✓
FLA −13.5
–
–
Final
Clemson@#15Georgia TechUpset
25%
75%
47
44
✗
GT −11.5
–
–
Final
#19Illinois@#13Michigan
36%
64%
20
45
✓
MICH −6.3
–
–
Final
#21UCLA@Oregon State
50%
50%
38
7
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Texas A&M
36%
64%
3
24
✓
TA&M −5.8
–
–
Final
#11Washington@California
88%
12%
31
28
✓
WASH −19.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Akron
15%
86%
10
14
✓
AKR −17.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
87%
13%
31
10
✓
WMU −18.7
–
–
Final
#18Stanford@USC
55%
44%
21
16
✓
STAN −2.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Georgia
20%
80%
23
34
✓
UGA −14.1
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
Wake Forest@#8Florida State
9.7%
90%
24
48
✓
FSU −21.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@USF
20%
80%
10
28
✓
USF −14.0
–
–
Final
UConn@RutgersUpset
14%
86%
20
19
✗
RUTG −18.4
–
–
Final
Auburn@Vanderbilt
65%
35%
24
21
✓
AUB −6.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#6Texas
18%
82%
7
42
✓
TEX −15.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Marshall
42%
58%
31
37
✓
MRSH −3.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Buffalo
55%
45%
16
8
✓
CMU −1.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Louisiana-Monroe
79%
21%
31
0
✓
NMSU −13.2
–
–
Final
#17BYU@UNLV
72%
28%
35
31
✓
BYU −9.4
–
–
Final
UAB@#24Southern Miss
26%
74%
0
3
✓
USM −10.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#9Toledo
14%
86%
20
41
✓
TOL −17.7
–
–
Final
LSU@#10Tennessee
28%
72%
18
26
✓
TENN −9.9
–
–
Final
Oregon@Utah State
78%
22%
38
21
✓
ORE −12.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UTEP
34%
66%
10
26
✓
UTEP −6.8
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
San Jose State@Arizona State
21%
79%
15
53
✓
ASU −13.4
–
–
Final
#25Washington State@Arizona
49%
51%
48
21
✗
ARIZ −0.4
–
–
Final
Boise State@Idaho
84%
16%
45
13
✓
BOIS −16.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#12Fresno State
12%
88%
28
38
✓
FRES −19.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Diego State
48%
52%
45
21
✗
SDSU −1.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Rice@Hawaii
55%
45%
27
24
✓
RICE −2.2
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
TCU@Houston
75%
25%
34
17
✓
TCU −11.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana
87%
13%
26
9
✓
MTSU −18.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Sep 30 · TBD Northwestern State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −29.8 96%
Sat, Sep 29 · 2:05 PM ET Western Kentucky at Wisconsin Wisconsin −23.3 92%
Sat, Sep 29 · 3:30 PM ET Southern at Tulane Tulane −11.5 75%