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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3

Chaos 5

Wilder than 5% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 13.5 expected

  • Biggest shockWake Forest over East Carolina19% chance · won 21-19
  • Runner-upColorado over Colorado State26% chance · won 41-14
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Missouri31% chance · won 20-13

Upsets

Thu, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 6 games

Final
Navy@Temple
28%
72%
26
45
✓
TEM −8.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Akron
47%
53%
29
31
✓
AKR −0.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#23Toledo
34%
66%
7
38
✓
TOL −5.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Arkansas
40%
60%
10
14
✓
ARK −3.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Buffalo
58%
42%
31
15
✓
RUTG −3.6
–
–
Final
USF@Northern Illinois
28%
72%
17
20
✓
NIU −8.7
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Idaho@Washington State
14%
86%
7
36
✓
WSU −16.6
–
–
Final
Arizona@San Diego State
55%
45%
23
10
✓
ARIZ −2.6
–
–

Fri, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@Vanderbilt
38%
62%
37
28
✗
VAN −4.3
–
–

Sat, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
West Virginia@Boston College
38%
62%
10
34
✓
BC −4.3
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Maryland
32%
68%
7
23
✓
MD −6.6
–
–
Final
UConn@#5Virginia Tech
4.7%
95%
10
52
✓
VT −25.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#17Southern Miss
23%
77%
9
17
✓
USM −11.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Iowa
19%
82%
0
51
✓
IOWA −13.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Kentucky
54%
46%
36
10
✓
LOU −2.2
–
–
Final
Troy@#3Nebraska
7.4%
93%
14
42
✓
NEB −22.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#18Georgia
14%
86%
17
45
✓
UGA −16.4
–
–
Final
UCF@#16Clemson
26%
74%
13
21
✓
CLEM −9.7
–
–

Afternoon 8 games

Final
Illinois@California
46%
54%
44
17
✗
CAL −1.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@Colorado State
26%
74%
41
14
✗
CSU −9.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#9Michigan
17%
83%
13
31
✓
MICH −14.4
–
–
Final
#4Oklahoma@Air Force
66%
34%
44
3
✓
OU −6.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#15Tennessee
25%
75%
9
33
✓
TENN −10.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Auburn
16%
84%
0
30
✓
AUB −14.7
–
–
Final
#2Florida State@Duke
90%
10%
55
13
✓
FSU −20.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@USC
36%
64%
10
21
✓
USC −5.2
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Wake Forest@#25East CarolinaUpset
19%
81%
21
19
✗
ECU −13.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#8Texas
4.9%
95%
7
41
✓
TEX −25.3
–
–
Final
Boise State@South Carolina
40%
60%
13
32
✓
SC −3.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@#7Florida
22%
78%
14
49
✓
FLA −11.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Missouri
31%
69%
20
13
✗
MIZ −7.1
–
–
Final
UCLA@Alabama
40%
60%
20
17
✗
ALA −3.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico
49%
51%
6
26
✓
PK
–
–
Final
#24TCU@North Texas
74%
26%
19
5
✓
TCU −10.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@BYU
16%
84%
7
52
✓
BYU −14.6
–
–

Sun, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#19Purdue@Cincinnati
56%
44%
19
14
✓
PUR −2.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#10Oregon State@Fresno StateUpset
62%
38%
24
44
✗
ORST −5.4
–
–

Time TBD 6 games

Final
Tulane@LSU
9.0%
91%
17
48
✓
LSU −20.4
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Penn State
87%
13%
33
7
✓
MIA −17.8
–
–
Final
Rice@Houston
44%
56%
21
14
✗
HOU −1.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@Utah
25%
75%
19
23
✓
UTAH −9.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Louisiana Tech
33%
67%
6
36
✓
LT −6.2
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#21Oregon
34%
66%
28
31
✓
ORE −5.8
–
–

Mon, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Memphis@#20Mississippi State
24%
76%
10
30
✓
MSST −10.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Fri, Aug 31 · TBD Montana State at UAB UAB −31.5 98%
Fri, Aug 31 · TBD Indiana State at Tulsa Tulsa −37.7 99%
Thu, Aug 30 · 7:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Central Michigan Central Michigan −18.1 88%
Thu, Aug 30 · 7:30 PM ET Illinois State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −47.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET The Citadel at #12 Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −43.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Ole Miss Ole Miss −33.4 98%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET East Tennessee State at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −36.9 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at #14 Texas A&M Texas A&M −32.1 98%
Sat, Sep 1 · 4:30 PM ET Richmond at Virginia Virginia −20.3 91%
Sat, Sep 1 · 3:00 PM ET Nicholls at Louisiana Louisiana −28.8 97%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −21.5 92%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State at Kansas Kansas −13.8 82%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Sam Houston at Louisiana-Monroe Sam Houston −7.4 67%
Sat, Sep 1 · 4:00 PM ET Furman at Wyoming Wyoming −14.4 83%