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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 45 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 98

Wilder than 98% of weeks in the archive.

20 upsets against 11.3 expected

  • Biggest shockOklahoma State over Oklahoma3.3% chance · won 16-13
  • Runner-upNicholls over Arkansas State4.6% chance · won 28-22
  • Runner-upBall State over Western Michigan17% chance · won 35-31

Upsets

Thu, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Northwestern@#12Illinois
12%
88%
28
34
✓
ILL −18.4
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ole Miss@Mississippi State
57%
43%
28
36
✗
MISS −3.3
–
–

Fri, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
Southern Miss@East Carolina
44%
56%
28
21
✗
ECU −2.1
–
–
Final
#4Texas@Texas A&M
82%
18%
21
7
✓
TEX −15.1
–
–
Final
California@Rutgers
57%
43%
20
10
✓
CAL −3.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas@LSU
24%
76%
38
41
✓
LSU −10.6
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
Arizona@Arizona StateUpset
24%
76%
34
21
✗
ASU −10.6
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@#14Colorado
74%
26%
36
62
✗
NEB −10.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#17Fresno State
5.0%
95%
21
40
✓
FRES −26.0
–
–
Final
#20Louisville@TCUUpset
68%
32%
22
37
✗
LOU −7.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
UConn@Temple
16%
84%
7
56
✓
TEM −15.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@West Virginia
47%
53%
23
17
✗
WVU −0.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#8Kansas State
7.8%
92%
3
24
✓
KSU −22.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
65%
35%
20
24
✗
M-OH −6.6
–
–
Final
Purdue@Indiana
46%
54%
7
13
✓
IU −0.9
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Minnesota
52%
48%
31
42
✗
WIS −1.5
–
–
Final
#23Iowa@Iowa StateUpset
55%
45%
14
17
✗
IOWA −2.6
–
–
Final
Ohio State@#7MichiganUpset
24%
76%
26
20
✗
MICH −11.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@NC State
8.8%
91%
7
27
✓
NCSU −21.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Wake Forest
35%
65%
35
38
✓
WAKE −5.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@UCF
3.7%
96%
0
31
✓
UCF −28.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western MichiganUpset
17%
83%
35
31
✗
WMU −14.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Memphis
41%
59%
36
34
✗
MEM −3.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Kansas
27%
73%
14
27
✓
KU −9.3
–
–

Afternoon 8 games

Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
26%
74%
0
53
✓
UNM −9.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Tulsa
86%
14%
19
7
✓
LT −17.7
–
–
Final
Rice@SMU
66%
34%
20
37
✗
RICE −7.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Boise State
5.5%
94%
10
26
✓
BOIS −25.3
–
–
Final
Penn State@Michigan State
41%
59%
42
37
✗
MSU −3.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#5OklahomaUpset
3.3%
97%
16
13
✗
OU −29.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#11Tennessee
3.1%
97%
0
38
✓
TENN −29.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Akron
8.7%
91%
62
65
✓
AKR −21.3
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
#25Georgia@Georgia Tech
42%
58%
31
17
✗
GT −2.9
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#21Stanford
29%
71%
13
17
✓
STAN −8.2
–
–
Final
Washington@#1Miami (FL)
3.0%
97%
7
65
✓
MIA −29.8
–
–
Final
Nevada@UTEP
42%
58%
48
31
✗
UTEP −2.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Air Force@Hawaii
31%
69%
30
52
✓
HAW −7.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
54%
46%
21
56
✗
TOL −2.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Utah State@USF
23%
77%
13
34
✓
USF −11.4
–
–
Final
#19Boston College@#18Syracuse
40%
60%
28
39
✓
SYR −3.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Nov 22 · 3:00 PM ET Nicholls at Arkansas State Arkansas State −26.6 95%
Sat, Nov 24 · 2:05 PM ET Idaho at Montana Idaho −1.4 52%
Sat, Nov 24 · 1:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Baylor Baylor −17.8 87%
Sun, Nov 25 · TBD Youngstown State at Marshall Marshall −39.5 99%
Sat, Nov 24 · 2:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at #22 Texas Tech Texas Tech −42.8 >99%