The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 2

Chaos 2

Wilder than 2% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 13.8 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Washington over UConn21% chance · won 35-17
  • Runner-upUSF over Pittsburgh22% chance · won 35-26
  • Runner-upWashington State over Boise State36% chance · won 41-20

Upsets

Thu, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Indiana@NC State
32%
68%
14
35
✓
NCSU −6.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Texas A&M@Wyoming
80%
20%
28
20
✓
TA&M −13.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
UCF@Syracuse
37%
63%
10
21
✓
SYR −4.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#7Texas
12%
88%
14
44
✓
TEX −17.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#6Virginia Tech
12%
88%
0
31
✓
VT −17.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Navy
82%
18%
70
7
✓
GT −14.7
–
–
Final
Akron@Ohio State
22%
78%
14
28
✓
OSU −11.7
–
–
Final
#17Fresno State@Wisconsin
45%
55%
32
20
✗
WIS −1.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#22Illinois
19%
81%
12
17
✓
ILL −13.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Iowa
25%
75%
19
44
✓
IOWA −9.9
–
–
Final
Alabama@Vanderbilt
59%
41%
12
9
✓
ALA −4.1
–
–
Final
UCLA@Kansas
58%
42%
41
17
✓
UCLA −3.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Michigan State
10%
90%
21
35
✓
MSU −19.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@West Virginia
42%
58%
3
20
✓
WVU −2.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Army
59%
41%
24
21
✓
CIN −3.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Kentucky
27%
73%
20
28
✓
UK −8.8
–
–
Final
USF@PittsburghUpset
22%
78%
35
26
✗
PITT −11.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Minnesota
9.5%
90%
14
44
✓
MINN −19.9
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Ole Miss@#24Auburn
27%
73%
21
27
✓
AUB −9.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#18Colorado
17%
83%
15
51
✓
COLO −14.5
–
–
Final
#9Michigan@WashingtonUpset
54%
46%
18
23
✗
MICH −2.0
–
–
Final
Utah@#25Oregon
24%
76%
10
24
✓
ORE −10.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulane
72%
28%
51
24
✓
ECU −9.4
–
–
Final
#10Toledo@Temple
70%
30%
33
7
✓
TOL −8.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#1Miami (FL)
0.5%
>99%
0
61
✓
MIA −40.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@Colorado State
10%
90%
18
35
✓
CSU −19.0
–
–
Final
#20BYU@California
72%
28%
44
16
✓
BYU −9.7
–
–
Final
UAB@#2Florida State
3.9%
96%
7
29
✓
FSU −27.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#5Florida
0.1%
>99%
6
55
✓
FLA −48.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Maryland
8.5%
92%
3
50
✓
MD −20.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Bowling Green
12%
88%
0
35
✓
BGSU −18.2
–
–
Final
#14Kansas State@USC
57%
43%
10
6
✓
KSU −3.4
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Arkansas State@Baylor
35%
65%
3
24
✓
BAY −5.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Middle Tennessee
29%
71%
17
54
✓
MTSU −7.9
–
–
Final
#16TCU@SMU
89%
11%
38
10
✓
TCU −19.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@#3Oklahoma
1.6%
98%
10
37
✓
OU −33.1
–
–
Final
#15South Carolina@#12Georgia
39%
61%
14
9
✗
UGA −3.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@Boise State
36%
64%
41
20
✗
BOIS −5.1
–
–
Final
#8Tennessee@Arkansas
66%
34%
13
3
✓
TENN −6.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@New Mexico State
75%
25%
27
22
✓
ORST −10.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
San Diego State@Arizona State
26%
74%
7
38
✓
ASU −9.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@Arizona
2.6%
97%
29
36
✓
ARIZ −30.1
–
–
Final
#19Boston College@StanfordUpset
59%
41%
22
38
✗
BC −4.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northwestern@UNLV
44%
56%
37
28
✗
UNLV −1.8
–
–

Sun, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Utah State@LSU
13%
87%
14
31
✓
LSU −16.9
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#4Nebraska
14%
86%
10
27
✓
NEB −16.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Oklahoma State
42%
58%
23
30
✓
OKST −2.6
–
–
Final
Duke@Rice
18%
82%
13
15
✓
RICE −13.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas Tech
42%
58%
30
42
✓
TTU −2.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 8 · 1:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at UConn UConn −12.0 79%
Sun, Sep 9 · 12:05 AM ET Montana at Hawaii Hawaii −17.9 88%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:30 PM ET Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −32.2 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina at #11 Louisville Louisville −46.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:30 PM ET Texas State at Missouri Missouri −9.4 74%
Sat, Sep 8 · 6:30 PM ET Appalachian State at Wake Forest Appalachian State −3.2 57%
Sat, Sep 8 · 1:00 PM ET Wofford at #23 Clemson Clemson −35.6 99%
Sun, Sep 9 · TBD Chattanooga at Memphis Memphis −27.0 96%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET UMass at Marshall Marshall −15.0 84%
Sat, Sep 8 · 2:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Air Force Air Force −37.6 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 6:00 PM ET Bucknell at Kent State Kent State −3.2 60%
Sat, Sep 8 · 9:05 PM ET Texas Southern at UTEP UTEP −21.1 92%