The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 33

Wilder than 33% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 13.6 expected

  • Biggest shockNC State over Florida State13% chance · won 34-28
  • Runner-upWake Forest over North Carolina15% chance · won 32-31
  • Runner-upVirginia over Georgia Tech22% chance · won 39-38

Upsets

Tue, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
19%
81%
35
41
✓
TOL −13.4
–
–

Thu, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
28%
72%
21
28
✓
CSU −9.0
–
–

Sat, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 25 games

Final
72%
28%
38
31
✓
USU −9.5
–
–
Final
87%
13%
18
7
✓
MIA −18.2
–
–
Final
15%
85%
32
31
✗
UNC −16.2
–
–
Final
15%
85%
13
24
✓
SYR −16.1
–
–
Final
58%
42%
27
21
✓
MRSH −3.5
–
–
Final
12%
88%
10
31
✓
OU −18.4
–
–
Final
93%
7.3%
35
0
✓
VT −23.6
–
–
Final
54%
46%
42
28
✓
TULN −2.0
–
–
Final
51%
49%
59
16
✓
IOWA −0.7
–
–
Final
28%
72%
37
28
✗
MSU −8.9
–
–
Final
11%
89%
10
31
✓
MICH −19.5
–
–
Final
33%
67%
9
35
✓
OSU −6.5
–
–
Final
1.5%
98%
0
59
✓
TEX −34.6
–
–
Final
19%
81%
17
24
✓
ALA −13.4
–
–
Final
62%
38%
17
0
✓
BGSU −5.4
–
–
Final
26%
74%
26
19
✗
ARMY −9.8
–
–
Final
39%
61%
31
18
✗
BALL −4.0
–
–
Final
18%
82%
30
35
✓
CMU −13.9
–
–
Final
78%
22%
42
0
✓
PITT −12.5
–
–
Final
43%
57%
20
27
✓
ARK −2.5
–
–
Final
2.2%
98%
10
34
✓
LOU −31.9
–
–
Final
19%
81%
24
41
✓
MIZ −13.5
–
–
Final
74%
26%
49
30
✓
TTU −10.7
–
–
Final
40%
60%
56
30
✗
VAN −3.6
–
–
Final
6.7%
93%
28
49
✓
TENN −23.6
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
10%
90%
32
59
✓
RICE −20.0
–
–
Final
4.9%
95%
3
17
✓
UTAH −26.1
–
–
Final
87%
13%
38
13
✓
FRES −18.5
–
–
Final
95%
5.4%
41
34
✓
BYU −26.1
–
–
Final
81%
19%
55
14
✓
USC −14.4
–
–
Final
#11Oregon@#13UCLA
41%
59%
21
20
✗
UCLA −3.1
–
–
Final
13%
87%
34
28
✗
FSU −17.9
–
–
Final
26%
74%
24
17
✗
UGA −9.7
–
–
Final
18%
82%
21
31
✓
NEB −14.0
–
–
Final
54%
46%
24
49
✗
WASH −2.1
–
–
Final
78%
22%
38
39
✗
GT −12.9
–
–
Final
17%
83%
28
33
✓
ILL −14.6
–
–
Final
61%
39%
28
26
✓
ECU −4.8
–
–
Final
18%
82%
17
42
✓
UNT −14.4
–
–
Final
46%
54%
17
38
✓
UAB −1.1
–
–
Final
12%
88%
17
28
✓
NMSU −18.5
–
–
Final
54%
46%
28
16
✓
WSU −2.0
–
–
Final
33%
67%
45
64
✓
SJSU −6.6
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
72%
28%
54
17
✓
FLA −9.8
–
–
Final
18%
82%
14
30
✓
LSU −14.0
–
–
Final
74%
26%
53
30
✓
LT −10.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
51%
49%
28
21
✓
BOIS −0.9
–
–

Sun, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
75%
25%
51
37
✓
STAN −11.1
–
–
Final
58%
42%
40
27
✓
COLO −3.7
–
–
Final
24%
76%
20
37
✓
MD −10.5
–
–
Final
40%
60%
17
27
✓
UNM −3.4
–
–
Final
75%
25%
44
12
✓
TROY −11.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Nov 11 · TBD Western Illinois at USF USF −33.0 98%