The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 32

Wilder than 32% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockIndiana over Wisconsin16% chance · won 63-32
  • Runner-upKansas over Texas Tech23% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over North Texas25% chance · won 19-17

Upsets

Thu, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Colorado State@Louisville
31%
69%
2
7
✓
LOU −8.5
–
–

Fri, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Utah State@#18BYU
7.5%
92%
34
54
✓
BYU −24.0
–
–

Sat, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
Virginia@#25Maryland
23%
77%
21
41
✓
MD −12.5
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Rutgers
83%
17%
24
17
✓
SYR −15.8
–
–
Final
#3Virginia Tech@West Virginia
85%
15%
35
0
✓
VT −16.9
–
–
Final
Troy@#1Miami (FL)
0.2%
>99%
7
38
✓
MIA −47.0
–
–
Final
Air Force@Navy
82%
18%
24
18
✓
AF −15.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@SMU
48%
52%
38
31
✗
SMU −1.1
–
–
Final
Georgia@#11TennesseeUpset
28%
72%
26
24
✗
TENN −9.8
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Illinois
26%
74%
14
25
✓
ILL −10.6
–
–
Final
Iowa@#20Purdue
33%
67%
14
23
✓
PUR −7.6
–
–
Final
#17Colorado@#7Kansas State
26%
74%
16
6
✗
KSU −10.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@UConn
38%
62%
0
19
✓
CONN −5.4
–
–
Final
#21Georgia Tech@Duke
92%
8.3%
37
10
✓
GT −22.9
–
–
Final
Houston@Army
50%
50%
14
28
✓
ARMY −0.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#19South Carolina
6.6%
93%
6
42
✓
SC −25.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
11%
89%
7
24
✓
BGSU −20.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Miami (OH)
11%
89%
14
31
✓
M-OH −20.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas A&M
9.4%
91%
10
16
✓
TA&M −21.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@WisconsinUpset
16%
84%
63
32
✗
WIS −16.8
–
–
Final
Marshall@Northern Illinois
44%
56%
37
15
✗
NIU −2.6
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Notre Dame
34%
66%
7
24
✓
ND −7.1
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
New Mexico State@Tulsa
41%
59%
24
7
✗
TLSA −3.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Alabama
21%
78%
7
56
✓
ALA −13.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
65%
35%
30
29
✓
UNM −6.1
–
–
Final
#2Florida@LSU
75%
25%
44
15
✓
FLA −11.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Boston College
15%
85%
10
33
✓
BC −17.4
–
–
Final
#10Michigan@Penn State
76%
24%
20
0
✓
MICH −11.8
–
–
Final
#6Oklahoma@#5Texas
37%
63%
14
3
✗
TEX −5.6
–
–
Final
USC@#16Washington
25%
75%
24
27
✓
WASH −11.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@North Carolina
30%
70%
21
24
✓
UNC −8.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
71%
29%
27
12
✓
UNLV −9.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#13Washington State
19%
81%
27
34
✓
WSU −14.8
–
–
Final
#9Toledo@Ohio
82%
18%
48
41
✓
TOL −15.4
–
–
Final
UAB@UCF
53%
47%
7
24
✗
UAB −1.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Western Michigan
29%
72%
14
31
✓
WMU −9.5
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
54%
46%
17
14
✓
NCSU −1.6
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Mississippi State@Auburn
43%
57%
14
16
✓
AUB −3.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#4Nebraska
15%
85%
14
48
✓
NEB −17.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Arkansas State
82%
18%
35
17
✓
MISS −15.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Cincinnati
22%
78%
33
46
✓
CIN −12.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Louisiana Tech
25%
75%
20
41
✓
LT −11.4
–
–
Final
Idaho@Middle Tennessee
5.5%
94%
58
70
✓
MTSU −26.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
75%
25%
17
19
✗
UNT −11.1
–
–
Final
#24Northwestern@#22Ohio State
39%
61%
20
38
✓
OSU −4.8
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Louisiana@Arizona State
2.9%
97%
27
63
✓
ASU −31.4
–
–
Final
#23Oregon@Arizona
62%
38%
63
28
✓
ORE −4.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Missouri@Oklahoma State
36%
64%
41
38
✗
OKST −6.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Memphis
70%
30%
17
22
✗
USM −8.7
–
–
Final
Boise State@Rice
70%
30%
14
45
✗
BOIS −8.4
–
–
Final
USF@Utah
30%
70%
21
52
✓
UTAH −8.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@Texas TechUpset
23%
77%
34
31
✗
TTU −12.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 6 · 7:00 PM ET Weber State at Arkansas Arkansas −38.7 99%
Sat, Oct 6 · 11:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at San Diego State San Diego State −16.0 83%