The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 74

Wilder than 74% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 14.5 expected

  • Biggest shockTroy over Mississippi State11% chance · won 21-9
  • Runner-upAuburn over Florida15% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upWisconsin over Ohio State19% chance · won 20-17

Upsets

Thu, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Maryland@#21Georgia TechUpset
35%
65%
20
17
✗
GT −5.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 23 games

Final
#1Miami (FL)@#8Florida State
71%
29%
49
27
✓
MIA −9.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
25%
75%
17
23
✓
NU −10.1
–
–
Final
Clemson@NC State
45%
55%
45
37
✗
NCSU −1.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Pittsburgh
64%
36%
42
10
✓
SYR −6.3
–
–
Final
Rice@Navy
75%
25%
21
13
✓
RICE −11.0
–
–
Final
Iowa@Michigan State
39%
61%
28
31
✓
MSU −4.1
–
–
Final
#23Purdue@#7Michigan
26%
74%
10
24
✓
MICH −9.8
–
–
Final
#24Alabama@Ole MissUpset
57%
43%
24
27
✗
ALA −3.4
–
–
Final
#6Texas@Oklahoma State
87%
13%
45
17
✓
TEX −18.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Army
74%
26%
49
26
✓
ECU −10.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
75%
25%
42
35
✓
WAKE −11.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@Buffalo
92%
8.4%
34
14
✓
MRSH −22.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
66%
34%
34
3
✓
OHIO −6.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
37%
63%
28
37
✓
WMU −4.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
21%
79%
24
30
✓
UNC −12.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@Indiana
57%
43%
35
14
✓
ILL −3.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Missouri
60%
40%
20
14
✓
ISU −4.7
–
–
Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
35%
65%
27
30
✓
M-OH −5.6
–
–
Final
#25Georgia@Vanderbilt
74%
26%
30
14
✓
UGA −10.8
–
–
Final
#4Nebraska@Baylor
96%
3.5%
48
7
✓
NEB −29.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Kent State
74%
26%
34
44
✗
NIU −10.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Notre Dame
30%
70%
24
34
✓
ND −7.7
–
–
Final
Troy@Mississippi StateUpset
11%
89%
21
9
✗
MSST −19.5
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
#19BYU@New Mexico
76%
24%
24
20
✓
BYU −11.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
14%
86%
13
24
✓
AF −16.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
28%
72%
20
26
✓
ARST −8.8
–
–
Final
#15South Carolina@ArkansasUpset
76%
24%
7
10
✗
SC −11.9
–
–
Final
#13Oregon@California
86%
14%
48
7
✓
ORE −17.4
–
–
Final
#22Washington@#11UCLA
30%
70%
13
35
✓
UCLA −7.9
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#12Colorado
24%
76%
21
31
✓
COLO −10.6
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#14Ohio StateUpset
19%
82%
20
17
✗
OSU −13.8
–
–
Final
TCU@TulaneUpset
80%
20%
22
48
✗
TCU −13.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Temple
31%
69%
5
30
✓
TEM −7.5
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@North TexasUpset
81%
19%
21
24
✗
MTSU −14.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Nevada
77%
23%
45
42
✓
LT −12.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@UAB
36%
64%
31
17
✗
UAB −5.4
–
–
Final
SMU@San Jose State
26%
74%
24
17
✗
SJSU −10.0
–
–
Final
#20Washington State@#17Stanford
38%
62%
45
39
✗
STAN −4.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
60%
40%
35
14
✓
BALL −4.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@USC
47%
53%
17
48
✓
USC −0.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@#3Virginia Tech
9.9%
90%
20
34
✓
VT −20.2
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
UConn@USF
13%
87%
21
40
✓
USF −17.3
–
–
Final
LSU@Kentucky
78%
22%
29
25
✓
LSU −12.9
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@Kansas
89%
11%
38
10
✓
OU −19.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
26%
74%
3
31
✓
UNLV −9.7
–
–
Final
#2Florida@AuburnUpset
85%
15%
20
23
✗
FLA −17.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Boise State
15%
85%
10
41
✓
BOIS −16.0
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#18Fresno State@Colorado State
66%
34%
25
22
✓
FRES −6.9
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon State
29%
71%
3
38
✓
ORST −8.2
–
–

Sun, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
UTEP@Hawaii
52%
48%
7
66
✗
UTEP −1.5
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Idaho@New Mexico State
13%
87%
39
46
✓
NMSU −17.4
–
–
Final
Memphis@Houston
63%
37%
52
33
✓
MEM −5.6
–
–
Final
#9Kansas State@Texas TechUpset
74%
26%
19
38
✗
KSU −10.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 13 · 6:00 PM ET Liberty at UCF UCF −20.6 90%