The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2001

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 69

Wilder than 69% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 12.0 expected

  • Biggest shockBall State over Toledo5.1% chance · won 24-20
  • Runner-upBoise State over Fresno State19% chance · won 35-30
  • Runner-upPenn State over Northwestern21% chance · won 38-35

Upsets

Tue, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@Louisville
39%
61%
14
24
✓
LOU −4.1
–
–

Fri, Oct 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Boise State@#16Fresno StateUpset
19%
81%
35
30
✗
FRES −13.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 48 games

Final
Tulane@UAB
27%
73%
27
34
✓
UAB −9.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona State
45%
55%
24
41
✓
ASU −1.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Auburn
22%
78%
41
48
✓
AUB −11.6
–
–
Final
#9Toledo@Ball StateUpset
95%
5.1%
20
24
✗
TOL −26.5
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Boston College
11%
89%
7
45
✓
BC −18.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Akron
54%
46%
16
11
✓
BGSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@#17BYU
16%
84%
33
63
✓
BYU −15.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@UCF
1.2%
99%
6
38
✓
UCF −36.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Houston
77%
23%
29
28
✓
CIN −12.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UNLV
42%
58%
26
24
✗
UNLV −2.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@East Carolina
25%
75%
11
32
✓
ECU −10.5
–
–
Final
#11Florida State@Virginia
77%
23%
43
7
✓
FSU −12.2
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#21Georgia
5.7%
94%
29
43
✓
UGA −25.0
–
–
Final
NC State@#20Georgia Tech
22%
78%
17
27
✓
GT −12.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Tulsa
61%
39%
36
15
✓
HAW −4.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#24Illinois
26%
74%
35
42
✓
ILL −9.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@Iowa
24%
76%
28
42
✓
IOWA −11.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Iowa State
17%
83%
14
28
✓
ISU −15.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Kent State
24%
76%
13
35
✓
KENT −10.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Idaho
34%
66%
54
37
✗
Idaho −6.3
–
–
Final
LSU@Mississippi State
45%
55%
42
0
✗
MSST −1.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Marshall
5.6%
94%
21
42
✓
MRSH −25.1
–
–
Final
Duke@#25Maryland
2.5%
98%
17
59
✓
MD −31.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
29%
71%
36
24
✗
OHIO −8.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Minnesota
51%
49%
19
28
✗
MSU −1.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Ole Miss
28%
72%
17
45
✓
MISS −8.6
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas
40%
60%
38
34
✗
KU −3.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#2Nebraska
6.6%
93%
31
41
✓
NEB −23.8
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Clemson
36%
64%
38
3
✗
CLEM −5.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@North Texas
35%
65%
0
45
✓
UNT −5.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
57%
43%
12
20
✗
WMU −3.4
–
–
Final
USC@Notre Dame
46%
54%
16
27
✓
ND −1.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#18Ohio State
4.9%
95%
12
27
✓
OSU −26.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@#5Oklahoma
1.1%
99%
17
33
✓
OU −36.3
–
–
Final
Penn State@NorthwesternUpset
21%
79%
38
35
✗
NU −12.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@Rice
15%
86%
30
33
✓
RICE −16.4
–
–
Final
Navy@Rutgers
31%
69%
17
23
✓
RUTG −7.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UTEP
36%
64%
40
28
✗
UTEP −5.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#19South Carolina
9.2%
91%
14
46
✓
SC −20.8
–
–
Final
#22Stanford@#10Oregon
28%
72%
49
42
✗
ORE −9.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Syracuse
12%
88%
3
45
✓
SYR −18.6
–
–
Final
#14Tennessee@Alabama
47%
53%
35
24
✗
ALA −0.6
–
–
Final
#12Colorado@#6Texas
23%
77%
7
41
✓
TEX −11.3
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#13Kansas StateUpset
24%
76%
31
24
✗
KSU −10.7
–
–
Final
Army@TCU
9.9%
90%
20
38
✓
TCU −20.1
–
–
Final
California@#8UCLA
2.3%
98%
17
56
✓
UCLA −31.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah
7.7%
92%
0
35
✓
UTAH −22.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington
13%
87%
28
31
✓
WASH −17.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Oct 18 · 12:00 AM ET Montana State at #15 Washington State Washington State −52.8 >99%
Sat, Oct 20 · 12:00 AM ET Southern Utah at USF USF −26.3 95%
Sat, Oct 20 · 12:00 AM ET Cal State Northridge at Troy Troy −33.3 98%
Sat, Oct 20 · 12:00 AM ET Idaho State at Utah State Utah State −17.8 87%