The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 28 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 7

Wilder than 7% of weeks in the archive.

6 upsets against 10.5 expected

  • Biggest shockOhio State over Kansas State29% chance · won 35-28
  • Runner-upWashington State over Texas31% chance · won 28-20
  • Runner-upLSU over Oklahoma36% chance · won 21-14

Upsets

Tue, Dec 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
54%
46%
27
17
✓
MEM −2.0
–
–

Thu, Dec 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
80%
20%
49
28
✓
M-OH −13.6
–
–

Mon, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
75%
25%
56
26
✓
NCSU −11.2
–
–

Tue, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
22%
78%
31
34
✓
BOIS −11.7
–
–

Wed, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
54%
46%
55
14
✓
ORST −2.1
–
–

Thu, Dec 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
31%
69%
48
54
✓
HAW −7.5
–
–

Fri, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
30%
70%
24
28
✓
BGSU −8.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
53%
47%
49
52
✗
VT −1.6
–
–

Sat, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
48%
52%
16
23
✓
UVA −0.5
–
–

Mon, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
38%
62%
3
17
✓
NEB −4.4
–
–

Tue, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
25%
75%
14
38
✓
TTU −10.4
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
69%
31%
20
28
✗
TEX −8.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
58%
42%
9
17
✗
UCLA −3.7
–
–

Wed, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
44%
56%
14
28
✓
AUB −2.1
–
–
Final
26%
74%
30
31
✓
MINN −9.6
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
54%
46%
17
0
✓
UTAH −2.2
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
36%
64%
14
27
✓
ARK −5.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
53%
47%
35
21
✓
BC −1.6
–
–

Thu, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
#12Iowavs#14Florida
53%
47%
37
17
✓
IOWA −1.6
–
–
Final
52%
48%
41
7
✓
MD −1.2
–
–
Final
66%
34%
34
27
✓
UGA −7.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
33%
67%
14
28
✓
USC −6.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
53%
47%
16
14
✓
MIA −1.8
–
–

Fri, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
48%
52%
28
31
✓
MISS −0.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
62%
38%
14
27
✗
TENN −5.4
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
71%
29%
28
35
✗
KSU −9.3
–
–

Sat, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
61%
39%
52
10
✓
GT −4.9
–
–

Sun, Jan 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
64%
36%
14
21
✗
OU −6.1
–
–