Bowls slate, 2003
The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 28 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.
Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the
favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood
that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.
Slates: This week · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2
Chaos 7
Wilder than 7% of weeks in the archive.
6 upsets against 10.5 expected
- Biggest shockOhio State over Kansas State29% chance · won 35-28
- Runner-upWashington State over Texas31% chance · won 28-20
- Runner-upLSU over Oklahoma36% chance · won 21-14
No games match.
Tue, Dec 16
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
54%
46%
27
17
✓
MEM −2.0
–
–
Thu, Dec 18
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
80%
20%
49
28
✓
M-OH −13.6
–
–
Mon, Dec 22
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Afternoon 1 game
Final
75%
25%
56
26
✓
NCSU −11.2
–
–
Tue, Dec 23
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
22%
78%
31
34
✓
BOIS −11.7
–
–
Wed, Dec 24
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
54%
46%
55
14
✓
ORST −2.1
–
–
Thu, Dec 25
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
31%
69%
48
54
✓
HAW −7.5
–
–
Fri, Dec 26
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Afternoon 1 game
Final
30%
70%
24
28
✓
BGSU −8.1
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
53%
47%
49
52
✗
VT −1.6
–
–
Sat, Dec 27
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Early 1 game
Final
48%
52%
16
23
✓
UVA −0.5
–
–
Mon, Dec 29
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Late night 1 game
Final
38%
62%
3
17
✓
NEB −4.4
–
–
Tue, Dec 30
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Afternoon 1 game
Final
25%
75%
14
38
✓
TTU −10.4
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
69%
31%
20
28
✗
TEX −8.4
–
–
Late night 1 game
Final
58%
42%
9
17
✗
UCLA −3.7
–
–
Wed, Dec 31
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Early 2 games
Final
44%
56%
14
28
✓
AUB −2.1
–
–
Final
26%
74%
30
31
✓
MINN −9.6
–
–
Afternoon 1 game
Final
54%
46%
17
0
✓
UTAH −2.2
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
36%
64%
14
27
✓
ARK −5.3
–
–
Late night 1 game
Final
53%
47%
35
21
✓
BC −1.6
–
–
Thu, Jan 1
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Early 3 games
Final
53%
47%
37
17
✓
IOWA −1.6
–
–
Final
52%
48%
41
7
✓
MD −1.2
–
–
Final
66%
34%
34
27
✓
UGA −7.1
–
–
Afternoon 1 game
Final
33%
67%
14
28
✓
USC −6.3
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
53%
47%
16
14
✓
MIA −1.8
–
–
Fri, Jan 2
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Early 1 game
Final
48%
52%
28
31
✓
MISS −0.2
–
–
Afternoon 1 game
Final
62%
38%
14
27
✗
TENN −5.4
–
–
Prime time 1 game
Final
71%
29%
28
35
✗
KSU −9.3
–
–
Sat, Jan 3
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Early 1 game
Final
61%
39%
52
10
✓
GT −4.9
–
–
Sun, Jan 4
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Prime time 1 game
Final
64%
36%
14
21
✗
OU −6.1
–
–