The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 12

Wilder than 12% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 12.7 expected

  • Biggest shockWashington over Oregon State17% chance · won 38-17
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Minnesota25% chance · won 44-38
  • Runner-upMemphis over Houston33% chance · won 45-14

Upsets

Thu, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
New Mexico State@Louisiana
63%
37%
24
26
✗
NMSU −5.8
–
–
Final
Clemson@NC State
34%
66%
15
17
✓
NCSU −6.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Air Force@Colorado State
44%
56%
20
30
✓
CSU −2.1
–
–

Sat, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
Illinois@#7Michigan
4.6%
95%
14
56
✓
MICH −26.7
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#9MinnesotaUpset
25%
75%
44
38
✗
MINN −10.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
83%
17%
42
13
✓
WAKE −15.9
–
–
Final
#21Boston College@SyracuseUpset
66%
34%
14
39
✗
BC −7.2
–
–
Final
#13Purdue@Wisconsin
57%
43%
26
23
✓
PUR −3.2
–
–
Final
Temple@#2Miami (FL)
0.8%
99%
14
52
✓
MIA −38.8
–
–
Final
#10Texas@Iowa State
85%
15%
40
19
✓
TEX −17.0
–
–
Final
#23Alabama@Ole MissUpset
55%
45%
28
43
✗
ALA −2.6
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#24Nebraska
24%
76%
12
48
✓
NEB −10.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Army
62%
38%
38
32
✓
ECU −5.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@Buffalo
94%
6.3%
26
16
✓
MRSH −24.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
86%
14%
31
13
✓
TOL −18.0
–
–
Final
Arizona State@North Carolina
62%
38%
33
31
✓
ASU −5.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Rutgers
80%
20%
42
32
✓
PITT −13.9
–
–
Final
#4Georgia@Vanderbilt
97%
3.2%
27
8
✓
UGA −30.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@Kansas
12%
88%
21
28
✓
KU −18.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Kent State
78%
22%
34
31
✓
CONN −12.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@#15Kansas State
15%
85%
20
49
✓
KSU −16.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#20Auburn
8.0%
92%
13
45
✓
AUB −22.1
–
–
Final
#3USC@Notre Dame
81%
19%
45
14
✓
USC −14.7
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Nevada@Tulsa
38%
62%
28
21
✗
TLSA −4.5
–
–
Final
Navy@Rice
63%
37%
38
6
✓
NAVY −5.8
–
–
Final
#19Miami (OH)@Ball State
88%
12%
49
3
✓
M-OH −19.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Louisiana Tech
62%
38%
44
41
✓
HAW −5.5
–
–
Final
Utah@UNLV
55%
45%
28
10
✓
UTAH −2.7
–
–
Final
Boise State@SMU
94%
6.1%
45
3
✓
BOIS −25.2
–
–
Final
#18Florida@#12Arkansas
37%
63%
33
28
✗
ARK −4.7
–
–
Final
California@UCLA
48%
52%
20
23
✓
UCLA −0.3
–
–
Final
#8Iowa@#22Ohio State
52%
48%
10
19
✗
IOWA −1.4
–
–
Final
#16Texas Tech@#17Oklahoma State
42%
58%
49
51
✓
OKST −2.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@North Texas
14%
86%
27
37
✓
UNT −16.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
24%
76%
10
37
✓
NIU −10.8
–
–
Final
#11Washington State@Stanford
79%
21%
24
14
✓
WSU −13.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Idaho
82%
18%
28
21
✓
MTSU −14.9
–
–
Final
UCF@Akron
27%
73%
24
38
✓
AKR −9.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Eastern Michigan
98%
1.9%
33
20
✓
BGSU −33.8
–
–
Final
BYU@Wyoming
50%
50%
10
13
✓
BYU −0.4
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Ohio@Kentucky
20%
80%
14
35
✓
UK −13.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@#1Oklahoma
3.4%
97%
13
34
✓
OU −28.8
–
–
Final
UAB@TCU
20%
80%
24
27
✓
TCU −13.1
–
–
Final
#14LSU@South Carolina
59%
41%
33
7
✓
LSU −4.2
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@Virginia
70%
30%
19
14
✓
FSU −9.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
59%
41%
30
7
✓
UNM −4.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Washington@#25Oregon StateUpset
17%
83%
38
17
✗
ORST −14.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Tulane@Louisville
14%
86%
28
47
✓
LOU −16.6
–
–

Sun, Oct 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Memphis@Houston
33%
67%
45
14
✗
HOU −6.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 18 · 7:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at USF USF −30.7 97%
Sat, Oct 18 · 3:00 PM ET FIU at Troy Troy −10.1 74%