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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 16

Wilder than 16% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 11.8 expected

  • Biggest shockArkansas State over New Mexico State20% chance · won 28-24
  • Runner-upUNLV over New Mexico23% chance · won 37-35
  • Runner-upWyoming over Colorado State30% chance · won 35-28

Upsets

Thu, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Troy@North Texas
29%
71%
0
21
✓
UNT −8.3
–
–
Final
#19Boise State@BYU
75%
25%
50
12
✓
BOIS −11.4
–
–

Fri, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@USF
44%
56%
17
24
✓
USF −1.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Western Michigan@UConn
22%
78%
27
41
✓
CONN −11.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Maryland
12%
88%
21
59
✓
MD −18.6
–
–
Final
#6Michigan@Michigan State
65%
35%
27
20
✓
MICH −6.6
–
–
Final
#12Nebraska@#8Texas
37%
63%
7
31
✓
TEX −4.9
–
–
Final
Utah@Air Force
46%
54%
45
43
✗
AF −1.2
–
–
Final
Illinois@#11Iowa
3.9%
96%
10
41
✓
IOWA −28.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#21Purdue
13%
87%
14
34
✓
PUR −17.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Ole Miss
31%
70%
40
43
✓
MISS −7.6
–
–
Final
#23Pittsburgh@Boston College
48%
52%
24
13
✗
BC −0.4
–
–
Final
UCF@West Virginia
6.3%
94%
18
36
✓
WVU −24.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
24%
76%
10
38
✓
CMU −10.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Texas A&M
41%
59%
33
45
✓
TA&M −3.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@Navy
28%
72%
17
35
✓
NAVY −8.8
–
–

Afternoon 24 games

Final
Indiana@#15Minnesota
2.2%
98%
7
55
✓
MINN −32.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Memphis
12%
88%
24
41
✓
MEM −18.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
18%
82%
23
48
✓
NIU −14.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@#10Kansas State
1.2%
99%
10
38
✓
KSU −36.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#22Auburn
0.8%
99%
7
73
✓
AUB −38.3
–
–
Final
#4Florida State@Notre Dame
83%
17%
37
0
✓
FSU −15.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
82%
18%
13
10
✓
HAW −15.2
–
–
Final
Nevada@Rice
68%
32%
42
52
✗
NEV −7.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Utah State
48%
52%
20
41
✓
USU −0.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@SMU
80%
20%
20
11
✓
FRES −13.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
7.4%
93%
3
48
✓
USM −22.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
70%
30%
28
35
✗
CSU −9.0
–
–
Final
California@Arizona State
60%
40%
51
23
✓
CAL −4.6
–
–
Final
UCLA@Stanford
64%
36%
14
21
✗
UCLA −6.1
–
–
Final
#5Georgia@#16Florida
54%
46%
13
16
✗
UGA −2.3
–
–
Final
#24Virginia@NC StateUpset
50%
50%
37
51
✓
UVA −0.3
–
–
Final
Clemson@Wake Forest
38%
62%
17
45
✓
WAKE −4.2
–
–
Final
#14Oklahoma State@#2Oklahoma
14%
86%
9
52
✓
OU −16.6
–
–
Final
#18Ohio State@Penn State
64%
36%
21
20
✓
OSU −6.0
–
–
Final
Army@UAB
6.8%
93%
9
24
✓
UAB −23.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon State
7.7%
92%
23
52
✓
ORST −22.4
–
–
Final
Duke@#25Tennessee
4.2%
96%
6
23
✓
TENN −27.4
–
–
Final
Akron@Marshall
25%
75%
24
42
✓
MRSH −10.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UTEP
78%
22%
56
28
✓
TLSA −12.6
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#13Washington State@#3USC
21%
79%
16
43
✓
USC −12.4
–
–
Final
#20Arkansas@Kentucky
64%
36%
71
63
✓
ARK −6.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@New Mexico StateUpset
20%
80%
28
24
✗
NMSU −13.0
–
–
Final
Colorado@Texas Tech
19%
81%
21
26
✓
TTU −13.5
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Toledo
5.4%
95%
29
56
✓
TOL −25.4
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#9Virginia Tech
70%
30%
7
31
✗
MIA −8.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#7LSU
7.0%
93%
10
49
✓
LSU −23.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@New MexicoUpset
23%
77%
37
35
✗
UNM −11.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Oregon@Washington
45%
55%
10
42
✓
WASH −1.6
–
–