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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 93

Wilder than 93% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 14.1 expected

  • Biggest shockTennessee over Miami (FL)11% chance · won 10-6
  • Runner-upClemson over Florida State13% chance · won 26-10
  • Runner-upDuke over Georgia Tech16% chance · won 41-17

Upsets

Tue, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@#15Miami (OH)
26%
74%
10
33
✓
M-OH −9.6
–
–

Wed, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisville@TCU
48%
52%
28
31
✓
TCU −0.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
South Carolina@#20Arkansas
23%
77%
6
28
✓
ARK −11.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
49%
51%
21
26
✓
PK
–
–

Fri, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
40%
60%
34
37
✓
UNM −3.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 23 games

Final
Rutgers@UConn
29%
71%
31
38
✓
CONN −8.3
–
–
Final
Penn State@Northwestern
61%
39%
7
17
✗
PSU −4.9
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Boston College
47%
53%
35
28
✗
BC −0.7
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#12Minnesota
20%
80%
34
37
✓
MINN −13.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@North CarolinaUpset
77%
23%
34
42
✗
WAKE −12.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#18Ohio State
29%
71%
23
33
✓
OSU −8.2
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#1Oklahoma
1.5%
98%
0
77
✓
OU −34.5
–
–
Final
UCF@Eastern MichiganUpset
80%
20%
13
19
✗
UCF −13.9
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#3Miami (FL)Upset
11%
89%
10
6
✗
MIA −19.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@Indiana
53%
47%
14
17
✗
ILL −1.7
–
–
Final
Alabama@Mississippi State
81%
19%
38
0
✓
ALA −14.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#13Florida
3.8%
96%
17
35
✓
FLA −28.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@DukeUpset
84%
16%
17
41
✗
GT −16.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Buffalo
92%
8.2%
40
9
✓
NIU −22.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
71%
29%
40
28
✓
AKR −9.4
–
–
Final
Temple@Syracuse
14%
86%
17
41
✓
SYR −16.7
–
–
Final
#10Kansas State@Iowa State
88%
12%
45
0
✓
KSU −19.3
–
–
Final
USF@East Carolina
78%
22%
38
37
✓
USF −12.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
41%
59%
37
33
✗
OHIO −3.1
–
–
Final
Army@Air Force
2.8%
97%
3
31
✓
AF −30.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
39%
61%
20
28
✓
WMU −4.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@Colorado
57%
43%
16
21
✗
MIZ −3.4
–
–
Final
Navy@Notre Dame
29%
71%
24
27
✓
ND −8.5
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Texas Tech@Baylor
90%
9.7%
62
14
✓
TTU −21.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Rice
68%
32%
31
28
✓
TLSA −7.7
–
–
Final
Idaho@Arkansas State
28%
72%
23
24
✓
ARST −9.0
–
–
Final
SMU@Louisiana Tech
9.6%
90%
6
41
✓
LT −20.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
29%
71%
7
0
✗
UNLV −8.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Nevada
47%
53%
27
10
✗
NEV −0.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#21AuburnUpset
33%
67%
24
20
✗
AUB −6.7
–
–
Final
#17Nebraska@Kansas
77%
23%
24
3
✓
NEB −12.1
–
–
Final
#11Iowa@#22Purdue
50%
50%
14
27
✗
IOWA −0.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@UABUpset
21%
79%
38
24
✗
UAB −12.3
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Stanford
43%
57%
27
38
✓
STAN −2.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Houston
65%
35%
31
10
✓
USM −6.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana-Monroe
90%
9.5%
28
26
✓
UNT −21.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UTEP
63%
37%
69
41
✓
SJSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Washington@ArizonaUpset
79%
21%
22
27
✗
WASH −13.5
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#5Virginia Tech@#23Pittsburgh
61%
39%
28
31
✗
VT −4.8
–
–
Final
#4Florida State@ClemsonUpset
87%
13%
10
26
✗
FSU −18.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#24California@OregonUpset
64%
36%
17
21
✗
CAL −6.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#6Texas@#19Oklahoma State
55%
45%
55
16
✓
TEX −2.5
–
–
Final
UCLA@#16Washington State
21%
79%
13
31
✓
WSU −12.3
–
–
Final
Troy@Middle Tennessee
46%
54%
20
27
✓
MTSU −1.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 8 · 5:00 PM ET FIU at Louisiana Louisiana −0.7 53%
Sat, Nov 8 · 2:00 PM ET Rhode Island at Cincinnati Cincinnati −31.2 98%