The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 35

Wilder than 35% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.6 expected

  • Biggest shockUNLV over Wisconsin13% chance · won 23-5
  • Runner-upArkansas over Texas18% chance · won 38-28
  • Runner-upTroy over UAB27% chance · won 20-9

Upsets

Thu, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22California@UtahUpset
54%
46%
24
31
✗
CAL −1.7
–
–

Fri, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@Marshall
39%
61%
24
17
✗
MRSH −4.9
–
–

Sat, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
#20Boston College@UConn
52%
48%
24
14
✓
BC −0.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Northwestern
51%
49%
44
14
✓
M-OH −0.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@Wake Forest
30%
70%
16
10
✗
WAKE −9.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#4TexasUpset
18%
82%
38
28
✗
TEX −15.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@#24WisconsinUpset
13%
87%
23
5
✗
WIS −18.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@West Virginia
38%
62%
15
13
✗
WVU −5.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Michigan State
35%
65%
20
19
✗
MSU −6.4
–
–
Final
NC State@#15Ohio State
24%
76%
38
44
✓
OSU −11.8
–
–
Final
#9Iowa@Iowa State
72%
28%
40
21
✓
IOWA −9.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@#17Pittsburgh
4.7%
95%
21
42
✓
PITT −27.8
–
–
Final
Auburn@Vanderbilt
57%
43%
45
7
✓
AUB −2.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@Syracuse
57%
43%
30
20
✓
LOU −2.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@Air Force
33%
67%
21
34
✓
AF −7.4
–
–
Final
Virginia@Western Michigan
57%
43%
59
16
✓
UVA −2.7
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
#21Minnesota@Ohio
85%
15%
42
20
✓
MINN −17.0
–
–
Final
Washington State@#18ColoradoUpset
35%
65%
47
26
✗
COLO −6.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#8Georgia
17%
83%
7
31
✓
UGA −15.9
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#7Michigan
22%
78%
0
38
✓
MICH −13.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#2Oklahoma
6.9%
93%
28
52
✓
OU −24.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Army
58%
42%
36
21
✓
RUTG −3.3
–
–
Final
#23Hawaii@#3USC
19%
81%
32
61
✓
USC −14.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@Wyoming
53%
47%
42
35
✓
KU −1.2
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Clemson
34%
66%
14
37
✓
CLEM −7.0
–
–
Final
Rice@Duke
36%
64%
24
27
✓
DUKE −5.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Akron
8.5%
92%
17
24
✓
AKR −22.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Oregon State
16%
84%
16
28
✓
ORST −16.9
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Troy@UAB
27%
73%
20
9
✗
UAB −10.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Ole Miss
5.2%
95%
14
59
✓
MISS −27.0
–
–
Final
SMU@Baylor
43%
57%
7
10
✓
BAY −3.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#1Miami (FL)
0.2%
>99%
3
38
✓
MIA −48.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Southern Miss
38%
62%
6
23
✓
USM −5.4
–
–
Final
#16Boise State@Idaho
98%
1.5%
24
10
✓
BOIS −35.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#13Alabama
12%
88%
17
27
✓
ALA −19.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UTEP
84%
16%
34
0
✓
SDSU −16.2
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Utah State@Arizona State
17%
83%
16
26
✓
ASU −15.8
–
–
Final
Oregon@Arizona
63%
37%
48
10
✓
ORE −5.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
Illinois@UCLA
21%
79%
3
6
✓
UCLA −13.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#5Florida State
12%
88%
13
14
✓
FSU −19.4
–
–
Final
Penn State@#25Nebraska
35%
65%
10
18
✓
NEB −6.3
–
–
Final
BYU@New Mexico
36%
64%
10
7
✗
UNM −5.9
–
–
Final
Houston@Louisiana
64%
36%
21
14
✓
HOU −5.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Tulane
39%
61%
28
31
✓
TULN −4.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:00 PM ET Weber State at Colorado State Colorado State −42.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 6:00 PM ET Florida A&M vs #6 Florida Florida −39.1 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 7:00 PM ET Indiana State at Indiana Indiana −37.2 99%
Sun, Sep 14 · TBD Western Illinois at #11 LSU LSU −47.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 6:00 PM ET The Citadel at Maryland Maryland −38.2 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 2:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Missouri Missouri −38.1 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 6:00 PM ET Liberty at Bowling Green Bowling Green −33.5 98%
Sat, Sep 13 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −22.1 91%
Sat, Sep 13 · 7:00 PM ET Texas State vs Tulsa Tulsa −3.8 59%
Sat, Sep 13 · 7:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State vs Arkansas State Arkansas State −24.9 93%
Sat, Sep 13 · 6:00 PM ET Colgate at Buffalo Buffalo −6.5 65%
Sat, Sep 13 · 6:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic vs UCF UCF −17.2 85%
Sat, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Central Michigan Central Michigan −30.3 97%
Sat, Sep 13 · 2:10 PM ET UMass at #10 Kansas State Kansas State −29.3 96%
Sat, Sep 13 · 6:00 PM ET Youngstown State at Kent State Kent State −11.5 75%