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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 60

Wilder than 60% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 12.1 expected

  • Biggest shockVillanova over Temple9.0% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upColorado State over California19% chance · won 23-21
  • Runner-upWestern Illinois over Eastern Michigan23% chance · won 34-12

Upsets

Thu, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@UAB
41%
59%
17
12
✗
UAB −3.0
–
–

Fri, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
#23Oregon State@Fresno StateUpset
59%
41%
14
16
✗
ORST −4.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Houston@#12Michigan
12%
88%
3
50
✓
MICH −18.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
39%
61%
24
38
✓
WAKE −3.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@#16Penn StateUpset
25%
75%
27
14
✗
PSU −10.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Memphis
61%
39%
34
44
✗
MISS −4.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#9Ohio State
3.0%
97%
13
16
✓
OSU −28.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#11Iowa
1.2%
99%
7
56
✓
IOWA −35.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Nebraska
6.9%
93%
7
31
✓
NEB −22.7
–
–
Final
#24Virginia@South CarolinaUpset
57%
43%
7
31
✗
UVA −3.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@#5Georgia
1.7%
98%
10
29
✓
UGA −32.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@Northwestern
59%
41%
22
21
✓
AF −4.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Army
73%
27%
48
21
✓
CONN −9.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Purdue
37%
63%
27
26
✗
PUR −4.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@North Carolina
57%
43%
49
47
✓
SYR −3.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Iowa State
22%
78%
20
48
✓
ISU −11.4
–
–
Final
#20Washington State@Notre DameUpset
46%
54%
26
29
✓
ND −0.9
–
–

Afternoon 9 games

Final
UCLA@#17Colorado
23%
77%
14
16
✓
COLO −11.0
–
–
Final
Auburn@Georgia Tech
43%
57%
3
17
✓
GT −2.3
–
–
Final
Akron@#25Wisconsin
8.0%
92%
31
48
✓
WIS −21.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@Oregon
7.6%
92%
23
31
✓
ORE −21.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Michigan State
19%
81%
28
44
✓
MSU −13.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Washington
11%
89%
13
38
✓
WASH −18.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@Ball State
70%
30%
35
7
✓
MIZ −8.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@#19Tennessee
24%
76%
24
34
✓
TENN −10.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#15CaliforniaUpset
19%
81%
23
21
✗
CAL −13.2
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Tulsa@Arkansas
4.4%
96%
13
45
✓
ARK −26.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@East Carolina
64%
36%
48
7
✓
WVU −6.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Oklahoma State
9.4%
91%
24
48
✓
OKST −20.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Pittsburgh
9.4%
91%
3
43
✓
PITT −20.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Kansas
67%
33%
24
46
✗
UNLV −7.2
–
–
Final
Navy@TCU
11%
89%
3
17
✓
TCU −18.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#14Texas Tech
19%
81%
28
42
✓
TTU −13.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@#7Florida State
17%
83%
10
35
✓
FSU −14.5
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@#8Alabama
46%
54%
20
13
✗
ALA −1.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@North Texas
18%
82%
14
52
✓
UNT −13.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Minnesota
8.9%
91%
7
48
✓
MINN −20.5
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#22LSU@Arizona
56%
44%
59
13
✓
LSU −2.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
21%
79%
10
31
✓
STAN −12.1
–
–

Sun, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
BYU@#2USC
4.5%
96%
18
35
✓
USC −26.1
–
–
Final
Utah@Texas A&M
31%
69%
26
28
✓
TA&M −7.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Louisiana
43%
57%
34
3
✗
UL −2.4
–
–
Final
#10Florida@#1Miami (FL)
5.7%
94%
33
38
✓
MIA −24.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −11.1 77%
Sat, Sep 6 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona State Arizona State −39.6 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at USF USF −46.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 8:05 PM ET Idaho State at Boise State Boise State −36.7 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET Eastern Washington at Idaho Idaho −8.9 73%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Kentucky Kentucky −39.2 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Western Carolina at Duke Duke −38.4 99%
Sun, Sep 7 · TBD Western New Mexico at New Mexico State New Mexico State −15.3 84%
Sat, Sep 6 · 4:00 PM ET Villanova at Temple Temple −20.4 91%
Sat, Sep 6 · 5:00 PM ET Furman at Clemson Clemson −30.1 98%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Chattanooga at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −31.0 98%
Sat, Sep 6 · 1:00 PM ET James Madison at #13 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −30.6 98%
Sat, Sep 6 · 12:00 PM ET Illinois State at Illinois Illinois −48.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin vs Arkansas State Arkansas State −14.5 83%
Sat, Sep 6 · 1:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Central Michigan Central Michigan −19.8 90%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:10 PM ET McNeese at #6 Kansas State Kansas State −45.3 >99%
Sun, Sep 7 · TBD Stephen F. Austin at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −1.6 55%
Sat, Sep 6 · 1:05 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −56.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 9:05 PM ET Cal Poly at UTEP UTEP −9.1 73%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Liberty at Toledo Toledo −22.9 93%
Sun, Sep 7 · TBD Northwestern State vs Tulane Tulane −25.4 95%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET William & Mary at Western Michigan Western Michigan −30.2 98%