The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 14

Wilder than 14% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 11.6 expected

  • Biggest shockBoston College over Virginia Tech17% chance · won 34-27
  • Runner-upWashington over Washington State28% chance · won 27-19
  • Runner-upDuke over North Carolina30% chance · won 30-22

Upsets

Wed, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Marshall@UCF
76%
24%
21
7
✓
MRSH −11.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
TCU@Southern Miss
43%
57%
28
40
✓
USM −2.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#16Boise State@Fresno State
74%
26%
31
17
✓
BOIS −10.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@Arkansas State
64%
36%
24
14
✓
MTSU −6.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 22 games

Final
Penn State@Michigan State
37%
63%
10
41
✓
MSU −4.8
–
–
Final
#18Ohio State@#9Michigan
25%
75%
21
35
✓
MICH −10.1
–
–
Final
#25West Virginia@Syracuse
55%
45%
34
23
✓
WVU −2.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia
29%
71%
17
29
✓
UVA −8.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
56%
44%
37
20
✓
NU −2.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#3Miami (FL)
2.4%
98%
10
34
✓
MIA −31.3
–
–
Final
#19Purdue@Indiana
94%
5.9%
24
16
✓
PUR −25.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#6Georgia
6.5%
94%
10
30
✓
UGA −23.8
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Baylor
93%
7.4%
38
21
✓
OKST −23.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Troy
8.4%
92%
24
28
✓
TROY −21.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Temple
84%
16%
30
16
✓
PITT −16.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ball State
82%
18%
41
14
✓
BGSU −14.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#20Tennessee
5.9%
94%
0
48
✓
TENN −24.6
–
–
Final
Duke@North Carolina
30%
70%
30
22
✗
UNC −8.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Navy
9.4%
91%
34
63
✓
NAVY −20.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#15Arkansas
3.1%
97%
6
52
✓
ARK −29.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Memphis
25%
75%
16
21
✓
MEM −10.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
26%
74%
7
36
✓
KU −9.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
69%
31%
26
3
✓
UNM −8.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois
2.9%
97%
24
38
✓
NIU −30.1
–
–
Final
#11Miami (OH)@Ohio
95%
5.3%
49
31
✓
M-OH −26.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulane
25%
75%
18
28
✓
TULN −10.5
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Tulsa@San Jose State
67%
33%
34
32
✓
TLSA −7.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Louisville
18%
82%
45
66
✓
LOU −14.0
–
–
Final
Utah@BYU
73%
27%
3
0
✓
UTAH −10.1
–
–
Final
#21California@Stanford
77%
23%
28
16
✓
CAL −12.1
–
–
Final
UCLA@#2USC
4.0%
96%
22
47
✓
USC −27.7
–
–
Final
#7LSU@Ole Miss
64%
36%
17
14
✓
LSU −6.1
–
–
Final
#23Maryland@NC State
46%
54%
26
24
✗
NCSU −1.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@Rice
15%
85%
14
45
✓
RICE −15.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@#10Virginia TechUpset
17%
84%
34
27
✗
VT −15.1
–
–
Final
#12Iowa@Wisconsin
55%
45%
27
21
✓
IOWA −2.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Oregon
58%
42%
20
34
✗
ORST −3.7
–
–
Final
#1Oklahoma@#24Texas Tech
84%
16%
56
25
✓
OU −16.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Kent State
15%
85%
24
34
✓
KENT −15.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@Idaho
65%
35%
13
20
✗
USU −6.6
–
–
Final
#13Washington State@WashingtonUpset
72%
28%
19
27
✗
WSU −9.8
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Alabama@Auburn
35%
65%
23
28
✓
AUB −5.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Diego State
64%
36%
3
24
✗
AF −6.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Army@Hawaii
3.4%
97%
28
59
✓
HAW −28.8
–
–

Sun, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
UAB@USF
31%
69%
22
19
✗
USF −7.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@#8Kansas State
14%
86%
14
24
✓
KSU −16.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UNLV
60%
40%
24
23
✓
CSU −4.5
–
–
Final
Clemson@South Carolina
42%
58%
63
17
✗
SC −2.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
18%
82%
17
34
✓
TOL −13.9
–
–