The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 85

Wilder than 85% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 12.2 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho over New Mexico State6.2% chance · won 35-31
  • Runner-upOle Miss over Florida18% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upBaylor over Colorado19% chance · won 42-30

Upsets

Tue, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Houston@East Carolina
62%
38%
27
13
✓
HOU −4.9
–
–

Thu, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
West Virginia@#1Miami (FL)
3.2%
97%
20
22
✓
MIA −30.7
–
–

Fri, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
Oregon@Utah
40%
60%
13
17
✓
UTAH −4.2
–
–

Sat, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
NC State@Georgia Tech
60%
40%
21
29
✗
NCSU −4.3
–
–
Final
#13Minnesota@Northwestern
83%
17%
42
17
✓
MINN −15.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@Michigan State
12%
88%
3
31
✓
MSU −19.3
–
–
Final
#7Virginia Tech@Rutgers
90%
10%
48
22
✓
VT −21.0
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Penn State
40%
60%
30
23
✗
PSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#18FloridaUpset
19%
82%
20
17
✗
FLA −15.0
–
–
Final
Colorado@BaylorUpset
81%
19%
30
42
✗
COLO −14.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
75%
25%
38
13
✓
UVA −10.9
–
–
Final
Troy@#16Nebraska
9.2%
91%
0
30
✓
NEB −22.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@NavyUpset
76%
24%
25
28
✗
AF −11.6
–
–
Final
Akron@#25Miami (OH)
13%
87%
20
45
✓
M-OH −19.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Memphis
26%
74%
24
10
✗
MEM −10.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
84%
16%
31
3
✓
WMU −16.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Kent State
40%
60%
34
17
✗
KENT −4.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Mississippi State
39%
61%
21
30
✓
MSST −4.9
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
Fresno State@Colorado State
49%
51%
10
34
✓
CSU −0.4
–
–
Final
Boise State@Louisiana Tech
68%
32%
43
37
✓
BOIS −7.8
–
–
Final
#4USC@Arizona State
90%
9.5%
37
17
✓
USC −21.6
–
–
Final
#21Alabama@#6Georgia
26%
74%
23
37
✓
UGA −10.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@Maryland
32%
68%
7
21
✓
MD −7.7
–
–
Final
#14Kansas State@#5Texas
27%
73%
20
24
✓
TEX −10.1
–
–
Final
#9Michigan@#12Iowa
45%
55%
27
30
✓
IOWA −2.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Bowling Green
3.6%
96%
3
23
✓
BGSU −29.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@#19Purdue
14%
86%
10
43
✓
PUR −18.4
–
–
Final
#24Oregon State@California
45%
55%
35
21
✗
CAL −2.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@#11Washington State
3.5%
96%
7
30
✓
WSU −30.2
–
–
Final
Buffalo@UCF
11%
89%
10
19
✓
UCF −20.6
–
–
Final
Washington@UCLA
49%
51%
16
46
✓
UCLA −0.6
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Louisville@USF
60%
40%
28
31
✗
LOU −4.2
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Iowa State
91%
9.1%
53
7
✓
OU −22.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#22Oklahoma State
3.3%
97%
3
56
✓
OKST −30.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Tulsa
70%
30%
16
27
✗
HAW −8.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State
18%
82%
41
44
✓
ARST −15.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@CincinnatiUpset
22%
78%
22
20
✗
CIN −12.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Middle Tennessee
48%
52%
44
36
✗
MTSU −1.0
–
–
Final
Army@TCU
3.0%
97%
0
27
✓
TCU −31.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Northern Illinois
11%
89%
23
30
✓
NIU −20.5
–
–
Final
#17Tennessee@AuburnUpset
53%
47%
21
28
✗
TENN −1.1
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Texas A&M@Texas Tech
31%
69%
28
59
✓
TTU −8.3
–
–
Final
BYU@San Diego State
46%
54%
44
36
✗
SDSU −1.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
69%
31%
16
12
✓
UNLV −8.2
–
–

Sun, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Idaho@New Mexico StateUpset
6.2%
94%
35
31
✗
NMSU −25.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico
19%
81%
7
34
✓
UNM −14.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Rice
46%
54%
24
28
✓
RICE −1.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@SMU
31%
70%
21
19
✗
SMU −8.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM ET Lehigh at UConn UConn −26.4 94%