The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 13

Wilder than 13% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockMichigan State over Iowa17% chance · won 20-10
  • Runner-upCalifornia over USC22% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upTroy over Marshall25% chance · won 33-24

Upsets

Thu, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#18Nebraska@Southern Miss
70%
30%
38
14
✓
NEB −8.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Indiana@#8Michigan
1.6%
98%
17
31
✓
MICH −35.5
–
–
Final
#12Minnesota@Penn State
61%
39%
20
14
✓
MINN −4.5
–
–
Final
UConn@#10Virginia Tech
21%
79%
13
47
✓
VT −13.7
–
–
Final
#6Iowa@Michigan StateUpset
83%
17%
10
20
✗
IOWA −15.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#15Ohio State
11%
89%
0
20
✓
OSU −20.4
–
–
Final
#14Florida@Kentucky
76%
24%
24
21
✓
FLA −11.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas
60%
40%
14
35
✗
MIZ −3.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@#20Boston College
6.3%
94%
29
53
✓
BC −25.4
–
–
Final
USF@Army
88%
12%
28
0
✓
USF −19.1
–
–
Final
North Carolina@NC State
12%
88%
34
47
✓
NCSU −19.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#25Miami (OH)
37%
63%
37
42
✓
M-OH −5.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Memphis
24%
76%
16
38
✓
MEM −11.7
–
–
Final
UCF@Kent State
68%
32%
16
36
✗
UCF −7.4
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Temple@Louisville
14%
86%
12
21
✓
LOU −18.2
–
–
Final
Air Force@BYU
50%
50%
24
10
✗
BYU −0.2
–
–
Final
#23Pittsburgh@Texas A&M
59%
41%
37
26
✓
PITT −3.7
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia
44%
56%
24
27
✓
UVA −2.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington
37%
63%
17
28
✓
WASH −5.7
–
–
Final
#9Arkansas@#17Alabama
56%
44%
34
31
✓
ARK −2.3
–
–
Final
#21Washington State@#24Oregon
45%
55%
55
16
✗
ORE −2.0
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#19Purdue
24%
76%
10
23
✓
PUR −11.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ohio
52%
48%
39
32
✓
WMU −0.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Northern Illinois
37%
63%
16
24
✓
NIU −5.6
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Illinois
56%
44%
38
20
✓
WIS −2.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Buffalo
80%
20%
38
21
✓
AKR −13.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@Eastern Michigan
98%
2.1%
37
13
✓
MD −33.5
–
–
Final
#3USC@CaliforniaUpset
78%
22%
31
34
✗
USC −12.6
–
–
Final
Utah@Colorado State
58%
42%
28
21
✓
UTAH −3.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Syracuse
56%
44%
7
34
✗
TOL −2.2
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Texas Tech@Ole Miss
59%
41%
49
45
✓
TTU −3.5
–
–
Final
#4Florida State@Duke
97%
3.2%
56
7
✓
FSU −30.6
–
–
Final
Navy@Rutgers
55%
45%
27
48
✗
NAVY −1.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Vanderbilt
71%
29%
24
17
✓
GT −9.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@#5Texas
6.8%
93%
18
63
✓
TEX −24.8
–
–
Final
Marshall@TroyUpset
75%
25%
24
33
✗
MRSH −11.2
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#11Tennessee
25%
75%
20
23
✓
TENN −11.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Boise State
8.4%
92%
17
33
✓
BOIS −23.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@North Texas
16%
84%
23
44
✓
UNT −16.7
–
–
Final
#16LSU@Mississippi State
82%
18%
41
6
✓
LSU −15.2
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
TCU@Arizona
85%
15%
13
10
✓
TCU −16.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UCLA
31%
69%
10
20
✓
UCLA −8.4
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oregon State
26%
74%
17
45
✓
ORST −11.0
–
–
Final
SMU@Nevada
17%
83%
9
12
✓
NEV −15.8
–
–

Sun, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Rice@Hawaii
9.8%
90%
21
41
✓
HAW −21.6
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
30%
70%
17
24
✓
UNM −8.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Utah State
13%
87%
10
28
✓
USU −18.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 27 · 5:00 PM ET Western Kentucky at Auburn Auburn −17.2 85%
Sat, Sep 27 · 3:05 PM ET Idaho at Montana Montana −4.2 60%
Sat, Sep 27 · 10:00 PM ET Portland State at Fresno State Fresno State −30.1 96%
Sat, Sep 27 · 9:05 PM ET Sam Houston at UTEP Sam Houston −5.4 63%