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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 3

Wilder than 3% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 15.0 expected

  • Biggest shockFlorida Atlantic over Middle Tennessee18% chance · won 20-19
  • Runner-upKent State over Akron29% chance · won 41-38
  • Runner-upWake Forest over Boston College32% chance · won 32-28

Upsets

Thu, Aug 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 5 games

Final
Kent State@Akron
29%
71%
41
38
✗
AKR −7.9
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Louisiana Tech
94%
5.9%
48
9
✓
MIA −24.7
–
–
Final
#15Maryland@Northern IllinoisUpset
59%
41%
13
20
✗
MD −3.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@Utah
25%
75%
20
40
✓
UTAH −10.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@BYU
54%
46%
13
24
✗
GT −1.9
–
–

Fri, Aug 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@UNLV
56%
44%
18
28
✗
TOL −2.7
–
–

Sat, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
Indiana@UConn
30%
70%
10
34
✓
CONN −7.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Missouri
43%
57%
15
22
✓
MIZ −2.4
–
–
Final
#6Georgia@Clemson
60%
40%
30
0
✓
UGA −4.5
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@West Virginia
41%
59%
24
17
✗
WVU −3.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#7Iowa
25%
75%
3
21
✓
IOWA −10.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#16Michigan
14%
86%
7
45
✓
MICH −16.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
58%
42%
24
21
✓
MISS −3.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#21Boston CollegeUpset
32%
68%
32
28
✗
BC −6.8
–
–

Afternoon 7 games

Final
Fresno State@Tennessee
32%
68%
6
24
✓
TENN −6.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Nebraska
39%
61%
7
17
✓
NEB −3.8
–
–
Final
Temple@#11Penn State
18%
82%
10
23
✓
PSU −14.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Michigan State
37%
63%
21
26
✓
MSU −4.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@California
40%
60%
2
34
✓
CAL −3.5
–
–
Final
#2USC@#22Auburn
57%
43%
23
0
✓
USC −3.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#18Florida
11%
89%
3
65
✓
FLA −18.4
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Tulsa@Minnesota
16%
84%
10
49
✓
MINN −15.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Rutgers
37%
63%
10
24
✓
RUTG −4.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@#3Oklahoma
15%
85%
3
37
✓
OU −15.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Baylor
52%
48%
24
19
✓
UAB −1.3
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
22%
78%
0
27
✓
UVA −11.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Kansas
49%
51%
28
20
✗
NU −0.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@South Carolina
20%
80%
7
14
✓
SC −12.4
–
–
Final
SMU@#23Texas Tech
13%
87%
10
58
✓
TTU −17.0
–
–
Final
Troy@#8Kansas State
14%
86%
5
41
✓
KSU −16.3
–
–
Final
#20Colorado@Colorado State
48%
52%
42
35
✗
CSU −0.4
–
–
Final
#13USF@#10Alabama
39%
61%
17
40
✓
ALA −3.8
–
–
Final
Washington@#5Ohio State
28%
72%
9
28
✓
OSU −8.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@Mississippi State
56%
44%
42
34
✓
ORE −2.8
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
UTEP@Arizona
22%
78%
7
42
✓
ARIZ −11.3
–
–
Final
#19Washington State@Idaho
93%
6.7%
25
0
✓
WSU −23.7
–
–

Sun, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
UCF@#14Virginia Tech
28%
72%
28
49
✓
VT −8.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@Kentucky
41%
59%
40
24
✗
UK −3.2
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
New Mexico State@#4Texas
13%
87%
7
66
✓
TEX −16.9
–
–

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@LSU
7.0%
93%
7
49
✓
LSU −22.5
–
–
Final
#9Florida State@North Carolina
70%
30%
37
0
✓
FSU −8.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Texas A&M
16%
84%
11
26
✓
TA&M −15.0
–
–
Final
Rice@Houston
42%
58%
14
48
✓
HOU −2.8
–
–

Mon, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
East Carolina@Cincinnati
30%
70%
3
40
✓
CIN −7.7
–
–

Tue, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
TCU@Tulane
51%
49%
38
35
✓
TCU −0.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Bowling Green Bowling Green −34.8 99%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Ohio Ohio −23.4 94%
Thu, Aug 28 · 10:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Oregon State Oregon State −23.8 94%
Fri, Aug 29 · TBD Indiana State at Ball State Ball State −32.3 98%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET East Tennessee State at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −21.3 92%
Fri, Aug 29 · TBD Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −13.9 82%
Sat, Aug 30 · 9:05 PM ET Eastern Washington at San Diego State San Diego State −25.0 95%
Sun, Aug 31 · 12:05 AM ET Appalachian State vs Hawaii Hawaii −3.0 59%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −33.8 98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 6:00 PM ET Western Carolina at #17 NC State NC State −42.1 >99%
Sun, Aug 31 · TBD Texas State at New Mexico New Mexico −13.1 81%
Sun, Aug 31 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Memphis Memphis −36.4 99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:30 PM ET Hofstra at Marshall Marshall −25.1 95%
Sat, Aug 30 · 2:00 PM ET Wofford at Air Force Air Force −29.7 97%
Sat, Aug 30 · 1:30 PM ET VMI at Navy Navy −14.9 84%
Sat, Aug 30 · 10:05 PM ET Southern Utah at Nevada Nevada −30.3 98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:00 PM ET Montana State at Wyoming Wyoming −22.9 93%