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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 57

Wilder than 57% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockMarshall over Kansas State14% chance · won 27-20
  • Runner-upNorthern Illinois over Alabama16% chance · won 19-16
  • Runner-upClemson over Georgia Tech24% chance · won 39-3

Upsets

Thu, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Texas A&M@#11Virginia Tech
25%
75%
19
35
✓
VT −11.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Nevada@San Jose State
48%
52%
42
30
✗
SJSU −1.0
–
–

Fri, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Hawaii@UNLV
59%
41%
22
33
✗
HAW −3.7
–
–

Sat, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
#22Tennessee@#8Florida
28%
72%
24
10
✗
FLA −9.8
–
–
Final
#14Texas Tech@NC StateUpset
63%
37%
21
49
✗
TTU −5.2
–
–
Final
UCF@Syracuse
43%
57%
14
38
✓
SYR −3.0
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wisconsin
20%
80%
27
38
✓
WIS −14.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#15Ohio State
31%
69%
17
24
✓
OSU −8.2
–
–
Final
#25California@Illinois
63%
37%
31
24
✓
CAL −5.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@#9Kansas StateUpset
14%
86%
27
20
✗
KSU −18.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Penn State
7.0%
93%
10
32
✓
PSU −24.5
–
–
Final
Arizona@Purdue
11%
89%
7
59
✓
PUR −20.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Navy
11%
89%
7
39
✓
NAVY −20.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Missouri
11%
89%
40
41
✓
MIZ −20.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Duke
50%
50%
28
10
✗
DUKE −0.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
10%
90%
29
35
✓
AF −21.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
33%
67%
14
27
✓
BALL −7.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Notre Dame
31%
69%
22
16
✗
ND −8.4
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Miami (OH)@Colorado State
52%
48%
41
21
✓
M-OH −0.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Louisville
0.8%
99%
14
42
✓
LOU −39.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@#7Florida State
19%
81%
7
47
✓
FSU −14.8
–
–
Final
#5Georgia@#17LSU
60%
40%
10
17
✗
UGA −3.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@#3Oklahoma
13%
87%
24
59
✓
OU −18.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington
2.3%
98%
14
45
✓
WASH −33.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Army
80%
20%
50
33
✓
TULN −14.1
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@OregonUpset
72%
28%
27
31
✗
MICH −9.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Indiana
69%
31%
34
17
✓
UK −8.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#18Washington State
21%
78%
13
23
✓
WSU −13.2
–
–
Final
UConn@Buffalo
92%
8.3%
38
7
✓
CONN −22.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#6Iowa
11%
89%
2
21
✓
IOWA −20.7
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Maryland
51%
49%
7
34
✗
WVU −0.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Wake Forest
9.5%
90%
16
34
✓
WAKE −21.8
–
–
Final
Stanford@BYU
39%
61%
18
14
✗
BYU −4.9
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
North Texas@#12Arkansas
15%
85%
7
31
✓
ARK −17.3
–
–
Final
Clemson@Georgia TechUpset
24%
76%
39
3
✗
GT −11.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Tulsa
57%
43%
7
54
✗
ARST −2.8
–
–
Final
#23Boise State@Oregon StateUpset
48%
52%
24
26
✓
ORST −0.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#13AlabamaUpset
16%
84%
19
16
✗
ALA −16.6
–
–
Final
Temple@#24Cincinnati
11%
89%
24
30
✓
CIN −20.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@SMU
89%
11%
52
6
✓
OKST −20.1
–
–
Final
UAB@South Carolina
17%
83%
10
42
✓
SC −15.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@TCU
14%
86%
14
30
✓
TCU −17.9
–
–
Final
#19Pittsburgh@ToledoUpset
59%
41%
31
35
✗
PITT −3.6
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#20Boston College
85%
15%
33
14
✓
MIA −16.9
–
–
Final
#10Texas@Rice
94%
6.2%
48
7
✓
TEX −25.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@Fresno State
40%
60%
6
16
✓
FRES −4.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Louisiana@#16Minnesota
3.4%
97%
14
48
✓
MINN −30.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Houston
41%
59%
35
42
✓
HOU −3.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:05 PM ET Samford vs San Diego State San Diego State −26.5 94%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Sam Houston vs Baylor Sam Houston −4.3 60%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Howard vs Akron Akron −8.9 70%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at Kansas Kansas −11.4 75%
Sun, Sep 21 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −6.7 65%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Troy Troy −13.8 80%