The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 20

Wilder than 20% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Michigan over Ball State21% chance · won 38-14
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Middle Tennessee22% chance · won 57-51
  • Runner-upMemphis over Louisville25% chance · won 37-7

Upsets

Wed, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Marshall@#12Miami (OH)
18%
82%
6
45
✓
M-OH −13.9
–
–

Thu, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Virginia@#25Maryland
36%
64%
17
27
✓
MD −5.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
North Carolina@Georgia Tech
19%
81%
24
41
✓
GT −13.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Wisconsin
43%
57%
21
56
✓
WIS −2.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Akron
20%
80%
28
35
✓
AKR −12.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#3Miami (FL)
7.2%
93%
10
17
✓
MIA −23.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Penn State
8.7%
91%
7
52
✓
PSU −21.4
–
–
Final
#11Minnesota@#16Iowa
42%
58%
22
40
✓
IOWA −2.9
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Missouri
22%
78%
22
45
✓
MIZ −11.6
–
–
Final
#13Florida@South Carolina
66%
34%
24
22
✓
FLA −7.1
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#21Tennessee
4.5%
96%
21
59
✓
TENN −26.7
–
–
Final
#8Virginia Tech@Temple
95%
5.0%
24
23
✓
VT −26.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Clemson
12%
88%
7
40
✓
CLEM −18.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Army
75%
25%
34
14
✓
HOU −11.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern MichiganUpset
79%
21%
14
38
✗
BALL −13.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#17Arkansas
3.4%
97%
20
48
✓
ARK −28.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@Iowa State
60%
40%
44
10
✓
COLO −4.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@Oklahoma State
13%
87%
21
44
✓
OKST −17.6
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
69%
31%
17
28
✗
UK −8.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
20%
80%
21
44
✓
WMU −13.0
–
–
Final
BYU@Notre Dame
28%
72%
14
33
✓
ND −9.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@#1Oklahoma
<0.1%
>99%
3
41
✓
OU −52.9
–
–

Afternoon 26 games

Final
San Diego State@Colorado State
19%
81%
6
21
✓
CSU −13.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@Louisville
26%
74%
37
7
✗
LOU −10.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
40%
60%
12
24
✓
UNM −3.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Tulsa
43%
57%
18
48
✓
TLSA −2.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Middle TennesseeUpset
22%
78%
57
51
✗
MTSU −11.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Southern Miss
14%
86%
14
28
✓
USM −17.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@TCU
27%
73%
10
43
✓
TCU −9.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
49%
51%
30
49
✓
NIU −0.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@#14Boise State
0.4%
>99%
21
51
✓
BOIS −42.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Utah State
41%
59%
23
14
✗
USU −3.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Nevada
69%
31%
14
24
✗
HAW −8.3
–
–
Final
Washington@California
25%
75%
7
54
✓
CAL −10.2
–
–
Final
Oregon@UCLA
34%
66%
31
13
✗
UCLA −6.1
–
–
Final
NC State@#5Florida State
15%
85%
44
50
✓
FSU −16.3
–
–
Final
#23Auburn@#6Georgia
23%
77%
7
26
✓
UGA −11.2
–
–
Final
#9Michigan@Northwestern
85%
15%
41
10
✓
MICH −17.2
–
–
Final
UConn@Wake Forest
27%
73%
51
17
✗
WAKE −9.3
–
–
Final
#10Kansas State@#18Nebraska
49%
51%
38
9
✗
KSU −0.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Rutgers
65%
35%
35
25
✓
BC −6.4
–
–
Final
#20Purdue@#19Ohio State
38%
62%
13
16
✓
OSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#15Washington State
10.0%
90%
19
34
✓
WSU −20.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon State
19%
82%
3
43
✓
ORST −13.8
–
–
Final
Rice@SMU
61%
39%
41
20
✓
RICE −4.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@North Texas
7.9%
92%
14
58
✓
UNT −22.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
8.3%
92%
33
42
✓
BGSU −21.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah
16%
84%
17
47
✓
UTAH −15.4
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#2USC@Arizona
98%
2.1%
45
0
✓
USC −33.1
–
–
Final
#7LSU@#24Alabama
60%
40%
27
3
✓
LSU −4.4
–
–

Sun, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Texas Tech@#4Texas
17%
83%
40
43
✓
TEX −15.1
–
–
Final
#22Pittsburgh@West VirginiaUpset
46%
54%
31
52
✓
WVU −1.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
21%
79%
7
41
✓
FRES −12.7
–
–
Final
Idaho@Louisiana-Monroe
39%
61%
58
20
✗
ULM −4.1
–
–