The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 15 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 29 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 16

Wilder than 16% of weeks in the archive.

5 upsets against 7.7 expected

  • Biggest shockRice over Louisiana Tech26% chance · won 49-14
  • Runner-upUSF over Memphis29% chance · won 21-16
  • Runner-upRutgers over Syracuse39% chance · won 24-7

Upsets

Wed, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
North Texas@New Mexico State
68%
32%
13
10
✓
UNT −8.1
–
–

Thu, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ole Miss@Mississippi State
88%
12%
31
0
✓
MISS −18.9
–
–

Fri, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 5 games

Final
Louisville@Cincinnati
57%
43%
43
40
✓
LOU −3.3
–
–
Final
#24Nebraska@Colorado
61%
39%
31
22
✓
NEB −5.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Marshall
9.1%
91%
0
28
✓
MRSH −20.9
–
–
Final
#10Miami (OH)@UCF
94%
6.1%
56
21
✓
M-OH −25.1
–
–
Final
#13Arkansas@#8LSU
28%
72%
24
55
✓
LSU −8.7
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Arizona@Arizona State
19%
80%
7
28
✓
ASU −13.3
–
–
Final
#4Texas@Texas A&M
90%
10%
46
15
✓
TEX −20.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
30%
70%
23
31
✓
BGSU −8.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Rutgers
61%
39%
7
24
✗
SYR −4.9
–
–
Final
#18Tennessee@Kentucky
73%
27%
20
7
✓
TENN −10.0
–
–
Final
#6Georgia@Georgia Tech
79%
21%
34
17
✓
UGA −13.2
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Missouri
7.5%
92%
7
45
✓
MIZ −22.6
–
–
Final
#12Virginia Tech@VirginiaUpset
56%
44%
21
35
✗
VT −2.8
–
–
Final
Temple@#23West Virginia
5.3%
95%
28
45
✓
WVU −25.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@East Carolina
86%
14%
38
21
✓
USM −17.6
–
–
Final
USF@Memphis
29%
71%
21
16
✗
MEM −8.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@Wyoming
52%
48%
35
24
✓
UNLV −1.5
–
–

Afternoon 7 games

Final
Rice@Louisiana Tech
26%
74%
49
14
✗
LT −9.8
–
–
Final
TCU@SMU
94%
6.4%
20
13
✓
TCU −24.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@#14Boise State
5.7%
94%
3
56
✓
BOIS −24.9
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@#15Florida
55%
45%
38
34
✓
FSU −2.6
–
–
Final
#22Maryland@Wake Forest
60%
40%
41
28
✓
MD −4.7
–
–
Final
UAB@Houston
48%
52%
28
56
✓
HOU −0.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UTEP
90%
10%
23
20
✓
FRES −20.5
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
Alabama@Hawaii
56%
44%
29
37
✗
ALA −2.8
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Stanford
54%
46%
57
7
✓
ND −2.1
–
–
Final
#3Miami (FL)@Pittsburgh
69%
31%
28
14
✓
MIA −8.2
–
–