The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2003

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 62

Wilder than 62% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 15.1 expected

  • Biggest shockNevada over Washington19% chance · won 28-17
  • Runner-upNotre Dame over Pittsburgh22% chance · won 20-14
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Louisiana23% chance · won 45-42

Upsets

Thu, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Kentucky@South Carolina
26%
74%
21
27
✓
SC −9.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Colorado State@BYU
43%
57%
58
13
✗
BYU −2.3
–
–

Sat, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
#1Miami (FL)@#3Florida State
56%
44%
22
14
✓
MIA −2.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@Clemson
59%
41%
27
30
✗
UVA −4.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#7Virginia Tech
16%
84%
7
51
✓
VT −15.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@West Virginia
14%
86%
19
34
✓
WVU −17.0
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Illinois
67%
33%
49
14
✓
MSU −7.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Indiana
63%
37%
37
31
✓
NU −5.8
–
–
Final
Auburn@#8ArkansasUpset
25%
75%
10
3
✗
ARK −10.1
–
–
Final
#15Kansas State@#18Oklahoma State
44%
56%
34
38
✓
OKST −1.8
–
–
Final
UConn@NC State
25%
75%
24
31
✓
NCSU −10.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Central Michigan
85%
15%
40
24
✓
NIU −16.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas A&M
18%
82%
10
73
✓
TA&M −14.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Ole Miss
7.4%
93%
0
55
✓
MISS −22.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#24Miami (OH)
0.8%
99%
3
59
✓
M-OH −38.3
–
–
Final
UCF@Ohio
50%
50%
0
28
✗
UCF −0.7
–
–
Final
Navy@Vanderbilt
48%
52%
37
27
✗
VAN −0.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
73%
27%
32
21
✓
BGSU −10.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Mississippi State
45%
55%
27
35
✓
MSST −1.5
–
–
Final
Houston@Tulane
48%
52%
45
42
✗
TULN −0.2
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Army@Louisville
1.4%
99%
10
34
✓
LOU −35.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#23Alabama
17%
83%
3
17
✓
ALA −14.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Air Force
37%
63%
7
24
✓
AF −4.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Middle Tennessee
45%
55%
18
35
✓
MTSU −1.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@Arizona State
63%
37%
14
59
✗
ORE −5.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Colorado
43%
57%
47
50
✓
COLO −2.2
–
–
Final
#25Florida@#10LSU
30%
70%
19
7
✗
LSU −8.1
–
–
Final
North Carolina@East Carolina
56%
44%
28
17
✓
UNC −3.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Wake Forest
30%
70%
24
7
✗
WAKE −7.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@Temple
78%
22%
38
13
✓
BC −12.7
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@#5Texas
56%
44%
65
13
✓
OU −3.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@WashingtonUpset
19%
81%
28
17
✗
WASH −13.5
–
–
Final
Penn State@#16Purdue
25%
75%
14
28
✓
PUR −10.3
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@UAB
73%
27%
14
31
✗
CIN −10.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Marshall
11%
89%
33
49
✓
MRSH −19.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@LouisianaUpset
23%
77%
45
42
✗
UL −11.5
–
–
Final
Duke@Maryland
4.4%
96%
20
33
✓
MD −26.9
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#21PittsburghUpset
22%
78%
20
14
✗
PITT −11.6
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
UCLA@Arizona
82%
18%
24
21
✓
UCLA −14.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Idaho
91%
8.9%
24
14
✓
UNT −22.0
–
–
Final
#14Nebraska@MissouriUpset
74%
26%
24
41
✗
NEB −10.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah
22%
78%
6
27
✓
UTAH −11.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#22Texas Tech
13%
87%
21
52
✓
TTU −17.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
1.6%
98%
14
49
✓
TOL −34.1
–
–
Final
#6Georgia@#19Tennessee
61%
39%
41
14
✓
UGA −4.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Boise State
14%
86%
20
27
✓
BOIS −17.2
–
–
Final
#17Ohio State@WisconsinUpset
56%
44%
10
17
✗
OSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UTEP
84%
16%
38
35
✓
LT −16.5
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
SMU@San Jose State
32%
68%
14
31
✓
SJSU −6.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@#4USC
6.2%
94%
21
44
✓
USC −24.2
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
TCU@USF
46%
54%
13
10
✗
USF −1.0
–
–
Final
#11Michigan@#9Minnesota
40%
60%
38
35
✗
MINN −3.4
–
–

Sun, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
34%
66%
28
55
✓
HAW −6.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Wyoming@Utah State
47%
53%
48
21
✗
USU −0.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 11 · 6:00 PM ET Cal Poly vs Akron Akron −15.3 84%