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2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 1982

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 32 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 22

Wilder than 22% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 8.3 expected

  • Biggest shockAbilene Christian over West Texas23% chance · won 33-29
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over Wyoming29% chance · won 41-20
  • Runner-upBoston College over Texas A&M31% chance · won 38-16

Thu, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#15BYU@UNLV
69%
31%
27
0
✓
BYU −8.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 16 games

Final
#11Arizona State@Oregon
67%
33%
34
3
✓
ASU −7.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Texas A&M
31%
69%
38
16
✗
TA&M −7.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
35%
65%
0
40
✓
BGSU −5.3
–
–
Final
Duke@Tennessee
41%
59%
25
24
✗
TENN −3.1
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#19Florida
59%
41%
14
17
✗
MIA −4.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
13%
87%
13
49
✓
ILL −16.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Ole Miss
31%
69%
10
27
✓
MISS −7.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Tulane
47%
53%
30
21
✗
TULN −0.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#23Missouri
12%
88%
14
28
✓
MIZ −17.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
29%
71%
41
20
✗
WYO −8.2
–
–
Final
Temple@#2Penn State
18%
82%
14
31
✓
PSU −13.6
–
–
Final
Pacific@South Carolina
9.2%
91%
6
41
✓
SC −20.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Rutgers
49%
51%
31
8
✗
SYR −0.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
36%
64%
20
17
✗
NMSU −5.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
26%
74%
3
9
✓
TOL −9.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@Tulsa
29%
71%
17
35
✓
TLSA −8.1
–
–

Mon, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#6Clemson@#5Georgia
38%
62%
7
13
✓
UGA −4.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Abilene Christian at West Texas West Texas −10.9 77%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD North Texas at Baylor Baylor −8.9 73%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Northern Arizona at Cal State Fullerton Cal State Fullerton −7.3 69%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Indiana State at Central Michigan Central Michigan −16.0 86%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Cincinnati at Florida State Florida State −7.9 71%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Western Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −13.8 82%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Kent State at Marshall Kent State −6.0 64%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Furman at NC State NC State −15.7 85%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at #18 Southern Miss Southern Miss −13.5 82%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Montana State at Utah Utah −21.3 92%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Virginia Tech at Richmond Virginia Tech −14.2 81%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Western Carolina at Wake Forest Wake Forest −20.0 91%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Grand Valley State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −21.6 92%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Missouri-Rolla at Wichita State Wichita State −8.4 72%