The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1982

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 24

Wilder than 24% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockJames Madison over Virginia13% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upColorado over Washington State17% chance · won 12-0
  • Runner-upIdaho over Pacific30% chance · won 36-17

Upsets

Sat, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 40 games

Final
#5Alabama@Ole Miss
74%
26%
42
14
✓
ALA −10.5
–
–
Final
#6Arizona State@Houston
66%
34%
24
10
✓
ASU −7.0
–
–
Final
Navy@#10Arkansas
18%
82%
17
29
✓
ARK −13.6
–
–
Final
#23Southern Miss@AuburnUpset
42%
58%
19
21
✓
AUB −2.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Central Michigan
43%
57%
34
30
✗
CMU −2.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@California
28%
72%
0
28
✓
CAL −8.7
–
–
Final
Colorado@Washington StateUpset
17%
83%
12
0
✗
WSU −14.2
–
–
Final
Duke@South Carolina
32%
68%
30
17
✗
SC −6.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Oregon
38%
62%
10
4
✗
ORE −4.3
–
–
Final
#20Hawaii@Colorado State
84%
16%
23
13
✓
HAW −16.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@Syracuse
43%
57%
47
10
✗
SYR −2.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
36%
64%
19
7
✗
IOWA −5.2
–
–
Final
TCU@Kansas
48%
52%
19
30
✓
KU −0.4
–
–
Final
West Texas@Louisiana
9.7%
90%
18
31
✓
UL −19.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@LSU
11%
89%
7
45
✓
LSU −18.2
–
–
Final
#2Miami (FL)@Virginia Tech
80%
20%
14
8
✓
MIA −13.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Northwestern
87%
13%
27
13
✓
M-OH −17.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
61%
39%
36
10
✓
MINN −4.7
–
–
Final
#18Mississippi State@Memphis
86%
14%
41
17
✓
MSST −17.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#1Nebraska
0.3%
>99%
0
68
✓
NEB −42.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico
12%
88%
21
49
✓
UNM −17.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#11North Carolina
13%
87%
10
34
✓
UNC −17.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
21%
78%
0
30
✓
NCSU −11.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
31%
69%
15
23
✓
NIU −7.3
–
–
Final
#12Michigan@Notre DameUpset
58%
42%
17
23
✗
MICH −3.6
–
–
Final
#22Ohio State@Michigan State
58%
42%
31
10
✓
OSU −3.8
–
–
Final
#24Oklahoma@Kentucky
70%
30%
29
8
✓
OU −8.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#4Penn State
2.9%
97%
14
49
✓
PSU −29.2
–
–
Final
#8Pittsburgh@Florida State
64%
36%
37
17
✓
PITT −5.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#21StanfordUpset
31%
69%
35
31
✗
STAN −7.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@#19USC
15%
85%
7
28
✓
USC −15.4
–
–
Final
#3SMU@UTEP
98%
1.7%
31
10
✓
SMU −33.4
–
–
Final
Utah@Texas
27%
73%
12
21
✓
TEX −8.8
–
–
Final
Air Force@Texas Tech
35%
65%
30
31
✓
TTU −5.3
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulane
29%
72%
6
30
✓
TULN −8.3
–
–
Final
#17UCLA@Wisconsin
60%
40%
51
26
✓
UCLA −4.6
–
–
Final
#16Washington@Arizona
62%
38%
23
13
✓
WASH −5.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@#13West Virginia
26%
74%
18
19
✓
WVU −9.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Wichita State
44%
56%
20
33
✓
Wichita State −1.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Wyoming
6.5%
94%
27
36
✓
WYO −23.1
–
–

Sun, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Oklahoma State@Tulsa
53%
47%
15
25
✗
OKST −1.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Lafayette at Army Army −27.9 96%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Cal Poly Cal State Fullerton −11.7 77%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD East Tennessee State at East Carolina East Carolina −21.8 92%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD The Citadel at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −6.4 67%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Pacific at Idaho Pacific −8.6 70%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD James Madison at Virginia Virginia −17.1 87%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD South Dakota at Kansas State Kansas State −28.9 97%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Eastern Michigan at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −15.6 85%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Richmond at Ohio Ohio −8.2 71%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Delaware at Temple Temple −1.6 56%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Texas-Arlington at Texas A&M Texas A&M −16.4 86%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Marshall at Toledo Toledo −26.5 96%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Weber State at Utah State Utah State −25.5 95%