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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1982

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 77

Wilder than 77% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockAir Force over BYU9.0% chance · won 39-38
  • Runner-upRutgers over Temple11% chance · won 10-7
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Northern Illinois21% chance · won 31-6

Upsets

Sat, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 43 games

Final
Air Force@#12BYUUpset
9.0%
91%
39
38
✗
BYU −22.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#2Alabama
5.4%
95%
21
24
✓
ALA −26.8
–
–
Final
#7Arizona State@California
69%
31%
15
0
✓
ASU −8.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#11Arkansas
15%
85%
12
14
✓
ARK −17.3
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Auburn
33%
67%
14
24
✓
AUB −7.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas Tech
59%
41%
24
23
✓
BAY −3.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Navy
55%
45%
31
0
✓
BC −1.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Colorado State
24%
76%
17
28
✓
CSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
12%
88%
17
51
✓
DUKE −19.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@East Carolina
55%
45%
6
24
✗
CMU −2.0
–
–
Final
#17Mississippi State@#15Florida
43%
57%
17
27
✓
FLA −3.0
–
–
Final
Florida State@Southern Miss
34%
66%
24
17
✗
USM −6.8
–
–
Final
#9Georgia@South Carolina
76%
24%
34
18
✓
UGA −11.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Memphis
58%
42%
24
20
✓
GT −3.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Hawaii
3.2%
97%
10
17
✓
HAW −30.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Indiana
49%
51%
10
17
✓
IU −0.4
–
–
Final
Iowa@Arizona
38%
62%
17
14
✗
ARIZ −5.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Kansas
27%
73%
13
13
✗
KU −10.4
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Kansas State
28%
72%
7
31
✓
KSU −10.0
–
–
Final
Rice@LSU
19%
81%
13
52
✓
LSU −14.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Louisville
67%
33%
22
28
✗
OKST −7.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Maryland
38%
62%
6
23
✓
MD −5.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#5Miami (FL)
8.8%
91%
22
25
✓
MIA −22.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)
7.0%
93%
0
35
✓
M-OH −24.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@#22Minnesota
19%
81%
11
41
✓
MINN −14.7
–
–
Final
Army@#8North Carolina
2.3%
98%
8
62
✓
UNC −33.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@NorthwesternUpset
79%
21%
6
31
✗
NIU −13.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@#23Notre Dame
12%
88%
14
28
✓
ND −19.7
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@#3Penn State
51%
49%
24
27
✗
NEB −0.2
–
–
Final
#4Pittsburgh@#21Illinois
62%
38%
20
3
✓
PITT −5.0
–
–
Final
Rutgers@TempleUpset
11%
89%
10
7
✗
TEM −20.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Diego State
33%
67%
23
26
✓
SDSU −7.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Oregon State
94%
6.4%
17
13
✓
SJSU −25.2
–
–
Final
#19USC@#25Oklahoma
48%
52%
12
0
✗
OU −0.8
–
–
Final
TCU@#6SMU
8.4%
92%
13
16
✓
SMU −22.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@#16Ohio StateUpset
30%
70%
23
20
✗
OSU −8.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#24Texas
35%
65%
0
21
✓
TEX −6.5
–
–
Final
#10UCLA@#20Michigan
53%
47%
31
27
✓
UCLA −1.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Cal State Fullerton
74%
26%
19
0
✓
USU −10.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@#13Washington
7.0%
93%
21
37
✓
WASH −24.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
15%
85%
14
24
✓
WMU −17.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Wisconsin
50%
50%
27
36
✓
WIS −0.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Colorado
42%
58%
24
10
✗
COLO −3.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Boise State at Pacific Boise State −29.7 96%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Western Carolina at #14 Clemson Clemson −45.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Weber State at Fresno State Fresno State −35.9 98%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Lamar at Houston Houston −24.7 93%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Indiana State at Ball State Ball State −8.7 70%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Drake at Iowa State Iowa State −20.1 89%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Louisiana at North Texas North Texas −1.9 54%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Texas A&M Texas A&M −7.1 66%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD William & Mary at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −32.9 98%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Wake Forest −0.5 51%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD McNeese at West Texas McNeese −11.1 75%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Richmond at #18 West Virginia West Virginia −36.3 99%